How to awaken the sleeping land

The Central Rural work Conference at the end of the year decided to strengthen agricultural supply-side reform in 2016, improve the quality and efficiency of the agricultural supply system, and ensure that the supply of agricultural products is sufficient in quantity, variety and quality meet the needs of consumers, and truly form an effective supply of agricultural products with reasonable structure and strong guarantee. It is also stressed once again that grain price reform and agricultural support policies should be tilted to the main body of scale operation.

People from all walks of life were overwhelmed with policies related to rural reform in 2015.

To sort out the path of policy changes in the past year, the basic logic is to improve the efficiency of agricultural production and enhance the competitiveness of China's agriculture. These include the landing and improvement of specific policies, the launch of pilot projects, as well as policy plans for planning the direction of future agricultural reform and top-level design. The 21st Century Macro Research Institute studies this year's agricultural reform from four aspects: property rights reform, management reform, price reform and urban-rural integration reform.

The Central Rural work Conference at the end of the year decided to strengthen agricultural supply-side reform in 2016, improve the quality and efficiency of the agricultural supply system, and ensure that the supply of agricultural products is sufficient in quantity, variety and quality meet the needs of consumers, and truly form an effective supply of agricultural products with reasonable structure and strong guarantee. It is also stressed once again that grain price reform and agricultural support policies should be tilted to the main body of scale operation.

At the industrial level, the 21st Century Macro Research Institute believes that the future agricultural supply-side reform will show the following characteristics:

First, the land market is expected to have the most market expectations.

Second, rural finance is expected to be further invigorated.

Third, the rural network infrastructure is improving, and there is still a lot of room for rural e-commerce in the next few years.

Fourth, the real impact of "going to the city to buy a house" on the de-inventory of real estate, as well as the corresponding public relations services and jobs after entering the city are worthy of attention.

I. property right reform: the pilot reform of "three plots of land" was launched.

In terms of influence and market concern, the reform of land-related property rights system has attracted the most attention from all walks of life.

In the reform of "three plots of land", the basic idea of the reform of rural land expropriation system is to narrow the scope of land expropriation, standardize the procedure of land expropriation, and improve the reasonable, standardized and pluralistic security mechanism for land expropriated farmers. we will establish a land value-added income distribution mechanism that takes into account the state, collectives and individuals, and reasonably improve individual income.

The basic idea of the reform of the collective construction land system is to allow the stock of rural collective construction land identified by the overall land use planning and urban and rural planning for industrial and mining warehousing, commercial services and other commercial uses to enjoy the same rights as the state-owned construction land. under the premise of being in line with planning, use control and acquisition in accordance with the law, it can be sold, leased and bought into shares. We will improve the trading rules for entering the market, the service supervision system and the rational distribution mechanism of land value-added income.

The basic idea of the reform of homestead system is: on the basis of ensuring the usufruct of homestead obtained by farmers in accordance with the law, reform and improve the rural homestead system, explore the new mechanism of farmers' housing security, and clearly define farmers' housing property rights. explore the system of paid use of homestead and voluntary paid exit mechanism, and explore effective ways to mortgage, guarantee and transfer farmers' housing property rights.

With regard to the reform of property rights, the Institute of Macro Studies in the 21st century believes that:

one. The land reform affects the whole body. The reform of rural land has been carried out smoothly in accordance with the principle of small-scale pilot projects. There will probably be no major reform progress in the next few years.

2. It was clearly mentioned in 2015 that the pilot involves breaking through the relevant legal provisions and needs to be submitted by the State Council to the standing Committee of the National people's Congress for authorization to allow the pilot areas to suspend the implementation of relevant legal provisions during the pilot period. Earlier, media reported that 15 of the 33 reform pilot projects were approved, and according to the document, the pilot will be completed by the end of 2017, which means that 33 pilot projects will be carried out simultaneously across the country in 2016.

At present, the stock of construction land in rural areas is as much as 250 million mu, how to invigorate rural land assets in the pilot will stir up the future land market.

II. Management Reform: the implementation of supporting policies for large-scale Operation

In 2015, the reform of agricultural management mainly focused on the reform and implementation documents of improving the intensive and planning level of agricultural management, respectively from the carrier of scale operation and the main body of new agricultural operation, as well as improving the supervision and risk prevention mechanism of industrial and commercial capital leasing agricultural land.

At present, the competitiveness of China's agriculture itself is still insufficient, and all parties have reached a consensus that the development of various forms of appropriate scale operation of agriculture is the only way for agricultural modernization.

This means that we must take the improvement of land output rate, resource utilization rate and labor productivity as the core, speed up the cultivation of new agricultural operators such as family farms and professional large households, and improve the level of intensive and large-scale agricultural management.

The 21st Century Macro Research Institute found that:

First, on the carrier of scale operation, the document proposes to promote moderate scale operation with the construction of high-standard farmland as the carrier, and to promote appropriate scale operation with agricultural industrialization as the starting point. We will increase support for the construction of high-standard farmland for new agricultural operators. The documents of the Ministry of Finance clearly support it financially.

Second, in terms of agricultural operators, almost all documents emphasize the role of new types of agricultural operators in the development of modern agriculture, including farmers' cooperatives, family farms, professional large households, leading enterprises, and so on; this is very obvious in the notices issued one after another this year on encouraging migrant workers to return home to start their own businesses.

In addition, the Central Rural work Conference at the end of the year also mentioned that it is necessary to give full play to the leading role of appropriate scale operation of various forms of agriculture in structural reform, and agricultural support policies should be tilted to the main body of scale operation.

Over the past year, at the policy level, documents encouraging the development of rural e-commerce have been issued one after another; at the capital level, capital predators such as Alibaba and JD.com have entered the countryside, and the purchase and sales patterns of agricultural materials and agricultural products are also changing, providing many employment and entrepreneurial opportunities for rural youth groups such as returning migrant workers and rural college students.

This also shows that a new type of agricultural main body in China is also taking shape, which may improve the situation that the main rural labor force is "3861 troops."

Third, rural financial opportunities have increased. The development of rural finance has been very weak, and the reasons include lack of credit, lack of collateral, difficult to control risk and so on.

With regard to the detailed rules on the pilot mortgage loan for the contracted management right of rural land and the mortgage loan for farmers' housing property rights, it is mentioned that "when the mortgage is needed due to the failure of the borrower to perform the due debt or under the circumstances agreed by the parties, financial institutions are allowed to dispose of the collateral in a variety of ways in accordance with the law on the premise of ensuring farmers' contractual rights and basic housing rights. In addition, we will improve the measures for the disposal of collateral to ensure that when the borrower fails to perform the due debt or the circumstances agreed upon by the parties occur, the lending bank can successfully realize the mortgage. "

The 21st Century Macro Research Institute has found that there have been many mortgage risk cases in some provinces. After the occurrence of the risk, it is very difficult for the collateral to be realized in the market, which is a "hot potato" for financial institutions. After the release of the rules, there will be less risk for financial institutions and may also relatively increase their enthusiasm for making such loans.

Fourth, at the end of 2015, 24 years later, the central government once again issued a special document to comprehensively guide the reform and development of land reclamation, making a top-level design for reshaping the agricultural "national team" in the new period. Land reclamation, also known as the last bastion of the planned economy, is rich in resources. Its 540 million mu of land resources and more than 1 trillion state-owned enterprise assets are waiting for reform to release more possible value. 2015 is known as the first year of China's land reclamation reform, and a series of reform measures will be implemented in 2016.

III. Price reform: marketization of grain prices

In 2015, the most direct impact on farmers is probably the grain price reform, the main content of the reform is "no separation of prices" and improve the market-oriented pricing system.

The 21st Century Macro Research Institute believes that according to the core idea of the current grain price reform, the way of market regulation and control of agricultural products will continue to be improved in the future, and excessive government intervention will be reduced, and grain prices will become closer and closer to the market in the future. the situation that the price of China's agricultural products is higher than that of the international market may be broken.

At the end of December, the Central Rural work Conference was held to adjust the agricultural supply-side reform. The meeting stressed that efforts should be made to strengthen the supply-side structural reform of agriculture, improve the quality and efficiency of the agricultural supply system, and ensure that the supply of agricultural products is sufficient in quantity, variety and quality meet the needs of consumers, and truly form an effective supply of agricultural products with reasonable structure and strong guarantee.

The price is the most effective means to adjust the supply and demand of agricultural products, which further shows that China's current grain prices will be adjusted to the market-oriented direction.

IV. Urban-rural integration reform: migrant workers coming to the city is the biggest suspense.

The last key reform that is closely related to the macroeconomic situation in rural areas and even the whole country is urbanization.

At the end of 2015, the annual Central Economic work Conference proposed that in accordance with the requirements of speeding up the urbanization rate of the registered population and deepening the reform of the housing system, we should speed up the citizenization of migrant workers, expand effective demand, open up supply and demand channels, and digest inventory. stabilize the real estate market.

Dissolving real estate inventory is also one of the "four wars of annihilation" in supply-side reform. In fact, in 2015, many cities in China have introduced policies to encourage migrant workers to buy houses in cities and subsidize them with real money and silver, including Henan and Anhui.

But can migrant workers become one of the "catchers" to solve the urban real estate inventory? This is the biggest suspense in this year's agricultural policy. At present, migrant workers are not willing to go to the city. According to a survey conducted by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the vast majority of rural migrants are not willing to change to a non-agricultural hukou; if they are asked to return the contracted land, only about 10% are willing to convert to a non-agricultural hukou.

The 21st Century Macro Research Institute believes that the reasons that affect the entry of migrant workers to the city mainly include whether there are sufficient jobs, whether they can enjoy urban education, medical care and other public services, and whether they can afford high housing prices and high prices in the city. whether it is necessary to withdraw from the rural contracted land. If migrant workers are to be encouraged to buy houses in cities, the country still needs to introduce a series of supporting policies on urbanization in 2016.

Among them, preferential policies issued in places such as Henan and Anhui to encourage farmers to buy houses in cities will be introduced one after another; from the national level, specific policies to promote urbanization, including education, health care, and social security, will also be reflected one after another.