Agricultural trade deficit or record high

A few days ago, this reporter learned from relevant personnel of the Ministry of Agriculture that there is no suspense that grain production will achieve a record 11 consecutive increases this year, farmers 'income is also expected to achieve 11 consecutive increases, and the income gap between urban and rural areas is likely to narrow to less than 3:1 for the first time. At the same time, due to the strong domestic demand for agricultural products, as well as the low global agricultural prices, the phenomenon of price inversion continues to intensify, this year's agricultural trade deficit may hit a record high.

"In the second half of this year, summer grain has gained huge income increase, autumn grain is expected to harvest again, comprehensive grain production throughout the year, there should be no suspense about another bumper harvest this year." Zhang Hongyu, director of the Rural Economic System and Management Department of the Ministry of Agriculture, said at the 2nd China New Agricultural Industry Annual Conference and National Agricultural Economy Summit Forum that China's grain production is expected to achieve a record 11 consecutive increases in 2014. In addition, farmers 'cash income increased by 9.7% in the first three quarters of this year, disposable income of urban residents increased by 6.9%, farmers' income was 2.8 percentage points higher than urban residents 'income, if there are no accidents, farmers' income is expected to increase 11 times this year, and the income gap between urban and rural areas is likely to narrow to less than 3:1 for the first time.

Despite bumper harvests every year and increasing farmers 'incomes, food imports are increasing every year. In recent years, grain, cotton, oil, sugar and other major bulk agricultural products have been imported in an all-round way. Data show that in 2013, China's total import and export trade of agricultural products was 186.69 billion US dollars. Of this, exports amounted to 67.83 billion US dollars, imports amounted to 118.87 billion US dollars, and the trade deficit amounted to 51.04 billion US dollars. In the first October of this year, China's grain imports reached a record high of 15.65 million tons, up 46.4% year-on-year. A number of experts said in an interview with reporters that the export proportion of agricultural products this year continues to be much lower than the import proportion, the export growth rate is still lower than the import growth rate, the deficit is growing positively, and it is very likely to exceed the deficit quota in 2013, setting a record high.

As for the reasons for the increasing import volume, Zhang Hongyu said, firstly, China's national economy has grown very fast in recent years, and the demand for agricultural products is extremely strong; secondly, the global economy is depressed, raw materials including agricultural products have been at low prices, and international grain prices have been falling all the way in the past two years. This year, international grain prices have fallen by 30% compared with the previous year and 8% compared with last year. The cost of importing agricultural products is far lower than the cost of producing resource agricultural products by China itself. Under the superposition of these two factors, China's agricultural imports are increasing in quantity and variety. Chen Xiwen, deputy head of the Central Rural Work Leading Group and director of the office, previously told the Economic Information Daily that a large number of low-priced agricultural products impacted the Chinese market, making it more and more difficult for Chinese farmers to earn money from farming. Last year, farmers 'per capita income was close to 9000 yuan, but the real income from planting was less than a quarter. Farmers could not rely on land income to support their families, and their enthusiasm for farming was low. The planting area of some important crops has been declining.

In order to truly implement the new concept of food security proposed by the central government for the first time this year,"focusing on ourselves and making rational use of the two international and domestic markets," many interviewed experts believe that we should focus on two reforms: one is to deepen the reform of the rural land system, and the other is to develop diversified agricultural management entities and form a diversified modern agricultural management system with Chinese characteristics.