Soybean prices are affected by imports 2015 soybean acreage may be reduced

In recent years, China's soybean market has been seriously impacted by imports. In 2014, China's total soybean imports were 71.4 million tons, exceeding 70 million tons for the first time. In the same period, the domestic soybean output is only 12.2 million tons, and the import price is lower than the domestic soybean price, domestic soybean has almost no room for survival.

Soybean prices are affected by imports 2015 soybean acreage may be reduced

According to China Rural Voice China, several hundred mu of soybeans have been planted at Meiyunhuan in Hubei Village, Yanggang Town, Hulin City, Heilongjiang Province. As soon as the beans were knocked down, the market was all right, so he quickly sold them. These days, all the soybeans in the village are sold at a loss, which makes him cheer again and again.

Mei Yunhuan: "not recently, there is no way to grow soybeans, Ben is not enough to be healthy now, no one wants it." If you want to grow soybeans, the key subsidy has been reported. Can you send it down? I don't know what's going on. If the preferential policy is good, continue to grow soybeans, ah, if it is not good, then there is no way. Grow corn. "

Since last year, the domestic soybean market as a whole has shown a moderate decline. By the beginning of January, the average price of soybeans nationwide was 3837 yuan per ton, down 2.39% from the previous month and 13.13% from the same period last year. Yang Jing, an analyst at Zhengzhou Grain Wholesale Market in Henan Province, pointed out that both imported and domestic soybeans have declined significantly in recent years.

Yang Jing: "in January, the customs payment cost of imported soybeans in Hong Kong was 3400 yuan / ton, a month-on-month decrease of 130 yuan / ton, a drop of 800,900 yuan / ton compared with the same period in 2014. Among domestic soybeans, the purchase price of edible beans in Heilongjiang is 4100-4240 yuan / ton. Month-on-month drop of 200,260 yuan / ton, 400,500 yuan / ton compared with the same period in 2014."

In recent years, the planting area and yield of soybean in China have decreased year by year, but its sales price has not increased because of the reduction of production, but is lukewarm. As we all know, the raw materials of soybean oil and crude oil in China are mainly imported, and the domestic price is dominated by the international market. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's soybean imports in 2014 were 71.4 million tons, an increase of 12.7 percent over the same period last year. Liu Jingliang, a grain and oil market analyst at Yuquan Road in Beijing, pointed out that low-priced imported soybeans have had a serious impact on the domestic soybean market.

Liu Jingliang: "first, the soybean yield is high, the quantity increases and the price falls." Last year, Brazil, Argentina and the United States, the three major soybean producing and exporting countries in the world, all achieved high yields. The overall bumper soybean harvest led to loose supply and falling prices of global soybeans; second, increased imports and increased pressure. After a large number of low-priced foreign soybeans enter the domestic market, it further suppresses the sales space of domestic soybeans. From the perspective of the northeast region of the main domestic soybean producing areas, most oil factories switch to imported beans and stop purchasing domestic soybeans, resulting in weak sales of domestic soybeans. "

Last year, China first carried out a pilot project on the target price of soybeans in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, abolishing the temporary collection and storage policy of soybeans, and the target price of soybeans was 4800 yuan per ton, equivalent to 2.40 yuan per jin. The introduction of the target policy more or less provides a certain income guarantee for bean farmers. However, compared with the income of growing grain such as rice, corn and wheat, it still does not have the advantage. Yang Jing said that the factors contributing to the further decline in soybean prices are also factors, and soybean acreage may be further reduced.

Yang Jing: "due to the lack of sales, the current farmers' domestic soybean inventory balance is generally large, increasing the downward pressure on prices in the later stage." It is expected that before and after spring sowing, the peak of farmers selling beans will appear, and the sharp increase in supply pressure will lead to lower spot prices. As the target price subsidy for soybeans allocated by the state will not be distributed to farmers until May 2015, farmers' spring sowing will have been basically over, and the purchase and sale prices of domestic soybeans after the listing of new beans in 2014 are obviously lower than in previous years. It is expected that farmers' enthusiasm for growing beans will be further dampened, and the planting area of domestic soybeans will be further reduced in 2015. "

At present, in terms of price, it is difficult for domestic soybeans to compete with international soybeans, so it is necessary to make full use of the advantages of high protein content of domestic soybeans to open up the market.

Based on the current situation of difficult sales and low prices of domestic soybeans, Liu Jingliang, a grain and oil market analyst on Yuquan Road in Beijing, suggested: "on the one hand, it is suggested that government departments should increase the advantages of domestic soybeans for industrial upgrading, and find another way to digest domestic soybeans and enhance their value. On the other hand, it is suggested that growers should appropriately adjust the planting area, at the same time, one or more large households should establish cooperative organizations, and rely on the quality advantage of domestic soybeans to establish long-term and stable cooperative relations with domestic and foreign production enterprises. in this way, there will be a target price policy bottom support, cooperative orders to promote sales stability, the income will be improved. "

Yang Jing, an analyst at Zhengzhou Grain Wholesale Market in Henan Province, suggested that soybeans can be properly sold in the short term and that soybean acreage can be appropriately adjusted in the long run.

Yang Jing: "in operation, it is suggested that farmers should properly sell domestic soybeans before the Spring Festival, and downstream enterprises should buy and use them to maintain low inventory." Now it seems that there is still a big difference between income and corn, although the state has raised the target price, but compared with corn, the planting income of soybean is still relatively low. It is suggested that growers should appropriately reduce the planting area of soybean. "