The area of rapeseed production may be reduced by about 10%.

In April, rapeseed is coming on the market all over the country. Due to the ideal price of wheat in summer and autumn last year, and the planting income was obviously higher than that of rapeseed, the sown area of rapeseed in China was further reduced, coupled with the bad weather during the growth of rapeseed, and the per unit yield in some areas suffered certain losses. as a result, the reduction of domestic rapeseed production this year has become a foregone conclusion.

Rape planting is replaced by wheat in a large area.

Although the domestic policy of collecting, storing and pricing rapeseed has been adopted in recent years, the planting income of rapeseed is still much lower than that of wheat in the Yangtze River basin. According to last year's policy price, the lowest purchase price of wheat is 1.18 yuan per jin, with a per unit yield of 800 jin, with an income of 944 yuan per mu, while the temporary storage purchase price of rapeseed is 2.55 yuan per catty, and according to the yield of 300 jin per mu, the income per mu is only 765 yuan. From the perspective of mu income, the income of planting crops such as wheat is higher than that of rapeseed, so the planting area of rape in China continues to decrease this year.

Rapeseed planting has a low degree of mechanization.

In terms of crop planting choices in recent years, farmers gradually prefer to plant varieties with a high degree of mechanization. The planting mechanization of rapeseed is low and still widely depends on labor, while wheat has a higher degree of mechanization, saving time and labor and better income. Therefore, in terms of planting, wheat continues to erode the area of rapeseed. At the same time, because some farmers in the south have less arable land, and planting rapeseed requires labor and low income, some young and middle-aged farmers go out to work and choose to abandon cultivated land or plant grapes and other cash crops that do not need careful care. This also affects the planting area of rapeseed.

Farmers hold a wait-and-see attitude towards policy adjustment.

With the pilot and promotion of the target price system for agricultural products such as northeast domestic soybeans and Xinjiang cotton, rapeseed growers take a wait-and-see attitude as to whether the rapeseed purchase policy will change this year. On the other hand, the state has always attached importance to food security, and the state has made it clear that wheat and other grains continue to maintain the minimum purchase price policy, so some rapeseed growers choose more assured wheat, while reducing the cultivation of rapeseed.

Adverse weather yield during the growth period of rape

At present, the main producing areas of rapeseed in the Yangtze River basin in China are in full bloom, due to the early Rain Water is too large, some areas of rapeseed field pollen abortion, although the proportion is not high, but it will still affect a certain yield. And in the last month, there has been continuous precipitation in Hubei and other places, which has also added more production reduction expectations to the final production.

The final yield of rapeseed is still variable.

At present, domestic rapeseed is in the final growth and harvest stage, and there is still some time before the harvest time. Although the sown area in Jingzhou and other places in Hubei has been reduced by about 20%, if the weather can perform satisfactorily in the next month and a half, it can still play a certain yield repair role in per unit yield.

According to the current survey data, the per unit yield of rapeseed in some areas of Hunan and Hubei is slightly better than that of last year, and the government of Hubei and other rapeseed producing areas give rapeseed growers certain seed, agricultural machinery subsidies and other support policies to stimulate the stable planting of rapeseed, which will also improve the extent of rapeseed yield reduction to a certain extent.