Corn prices may not rise again when alternative products are concentrated in Hong Kong.

In 2014-2015, the new imports of sorghum, barley and DDGS are basically used to replace corn. If the replacement ratio is 0.91,0.78 and 0.6 respectively, the new substitute consumption for corn is 4.3 million tons.

According to the shipping schedule forecast, imports of sorghum, barley and DDGS will still be concentrated in Hong Kong in the second quarter, and imports are expected to reach 8.5 million tons, 7 million tons and 4.5 million tons respectively in 2014 and 2015, an increase of 4.34 million tons, an increase of 2.11 million tons and a decrease of 2.15 million tons respectively over the same period last year.

Corn spot temporarily stops rising and weakens.

In the past week, corn prices in northeast China have fallen steadily. On Wednesday, the purchase price of 14% moisture second-class corn processing enterprises in Suihua, Heilongjiang Province was 2180-2280 yuan / ton, and the out-of-stock price of traders in Changchun, Jilin Province was 2300-2310 yuan / ton, both down 1020 yuan / ton from a week ago; the purchase price of Shenyang feed enterprises in Liaoning was 2350,2380 yuan / ton, and that of Tongliao deep processing enterprises in Inner Mongolia was 2340,2380 yuan / ton, both of which were the same as a week ago. Since the Spring Festival, corn prices in northeast China have risen significantly, with a cumulative increase of 100,200 yuan per ton.

In the past week, corn prices in North China have been stable on the whole and decreased slightly in some areas. On Wednesday, the purchase price of 14% moisture second-class corn processing enterprises in Weifang, Shandong Province was 2350,2370 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton from a week ago, while the purchase price of Shijiazhuang deep processing enterprises in Hebei Province was about 2300 yuan / ton, the same as a week ago. Since the Spring Festival, the price of corn in North China has not changed.

It rebounded to the same extent, with prices in Shandong and Hebei producing areas rising by 100,170 yuan per ton and Henan by about 100 yuan per ton.

In the past week, corn prices in north and south ports generally fell slightly, by 100.20 yuan per ton. On Wednesday, the purchase price of 14.5% moisture Liaoji corn in Jinzhou Port of Liaoning Province was 2360,2380 yuan / ton, and the theoretical flat price was 2410,2430 yuan / ton; the transaction price of 14.5% moisture Liaoji high-quality corn in Shenzhen Port of Guangdong Province was 2480,2500 yuan / ton. Since the Spring Festival, the overall price of corn in the north and south ports has risen by 80,100 yuan / ton.

The trend in the later period is still affected by the policy.

Since April, domestic corn market prices have shown a trend of slowing down, overall stabilization and local pullback.

First of all, this month, the sales area began to put temporary storage corn (including inter-provincial grain sources and imported grain sources). Although the volume is small and the transaction rate is not good (the cumulative transaction rate is less than 10%), the earlier than expected release time also makes the market wait and see.

Secondly, the recent market rumors that there will be subsidy measures in the late temporary storage corn auction, which further affected the market psychology.

Third, the recent arrival of alternative varieties such as sorghum has been accelerated, especially in southern ports such as Guangdong, where the volume of arrival will continue to grow after April, and the new replacement volume for the whole year is expected to exceed 4 million tons, which greatly suppresses the price of corn in the ports in the sales areas, and in turn affects the markets in the northern ports and the northeast producing areas.

Finally, the feed breeding market is still weak recently. According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture, the stock of live pigs at 4000 monitoring sites across the country decreased for the sixth consecutive month in March, and the stock of fertile sows decreased for the 19th consecutive month.

Comparatively speaking, when the total amount of temporary storage acquisition in Northeast China is close to a high of 80 million tons, temporary storage acquisition and auction are still the main factors, but the expectation of relevant policies has not changed, and the price has been supported by temporary storage acquisition; however, the market's expectations for relevant policies have changed recently, such as increased alternative supply and sluggish demand.

The negative effects of elements are shown or even magnified in stages. But on the whole, the policy is still an important factor affecting the trend of corn prices, especially when the northeast temporary storage corn is about to be put on the market in May, the relevant policy will gradually become clear.