The price of rapeseed this year may be much lower than that of last year

It is learned from the recent 2015 National Summer Grain and Oil acquisition work Conference that the rapeseed purchase policy has been initially clarified this year, and the central government has provided subsidies for rapeseed purchase in Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan, Hubei and Hunan provinces. the specific purchase price and whether to purchase and store rapeseed oil are determined by the provincial government. The meeting was mainly to solicit opinions, requiring the above five provinces to subsidize the acquisition of insufficient funds with provincial financial risk funds.

According to the analysis of relevant experts, this year is the first year to implement the new policy, and the purchase price is set by the provinces themselves. Subsidies are divided into two ways, one is to subsidize farmers, the other is to subsidize oil processing enterprises. However, the details will have to wait.

The reporter learned from Hunan and Hubei, the main producing areas of rapeseed yesterday, that the rapeseed harvest has been basically completed, but as the purchase price has dropped a lot compared with last year, farmers are reluctant to sell rapeseed and are mostly in a wait-and-see state. Jiao Haolin, deputy general manager of Hubei Grain and Oil Group, told reporters that at present, the rapeseed harvest in Hubei is coming to an end, and affected by changes in the acquisition policy, it is estimated that the rapeseed purchase price in Hubei will be 1.6 million yuan / jin in the later stage.

"at present, the price of rapeseed is low, coupled with the weather, farmers are not in a hurry to sell rapeseed after harvest. The listing price of an oil factory in Jingzhou is 1.58 yuan / jin." Xu Zhang, executive deputy general manager of Hubei Hongkai Industry and Trade Development Co., Ltd., predicts that various provinces will also discuss and study, and that there should be no acquisition details in the near future, and oil factories are also waiting and seeing.

The reporter noted that the coverage of the newly introduced rapeseed purchase subsidy policy this year has been greatly reduced, from the previous 13 provinces to include only Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan, Hubei and Hunan five major producing provinces.

"the purchase price is determined by the provinces themselves, and it is no longer uniformly priced by China Grain reserves, and it is expected that the final purchase price will be significantly lower than the 2.55 yuan / jin in the previous two years. Even with government subsidies, the purchase price is likely to be less than 2.1 yuan / jin. " Xu Xiaoyan, a futures agricultural product researcher at Guohai Liangshi, said that with reference to the price of imported Canadian rapeseed, the recent customs payment cost of Canadian rapeseed to Hong Kong is 3450 yuan / ton, plus 150 million yuan / ton freight, the price is about 1.85 yuan / jin. If the purchase price of domestic rapeseed is too high, it will be lack of competitiveness.

In addition, this year's rapeseed acquisition policy only mentions subsidies, and it is a combination of provincial government and central financial subsidies, without mentioning whether to prop up the market acquisition.

It is expected that the enthusiasm of local governments to participate in the acquisition may be greatly reduced. According to China's 2014 collection and storage of 5 million tons of rapeseed with a storage price of 2.55 yuan per jin, the government provided financial support of 25.5 billion yuan. Hubei Province accounts for about 15% of the rapeseed planting area of the country, and the financial support received by the province is about 3.8 billion yuan. " Chen Jing, an analyst of Citic Futures Agricultural products, told reporters that the meeting revealed a subsidy of 226 million yuan for the purchase of rapeseed in Hubei Province. From this point of view, Hubei Province faces greater financial pressure. (source: futures Daily)

In Chen Jing's view, local governments are likely to lower the rapeseed purchase guidance price and reduce the purchase volume, coupled with the malaise of downstream aquaculture this year, the high inventory of rapeseed oil reserves and the shortage of funds for enterprises. the enthusiasm of local oil companies to participate in acquisitions will also be affected. It is expected that most of the acquisition subjects will be state-owned enterprises, and more enterprises will wait for the relevant detailed rules to make clear arrangements, and there is also the possibility of not participating in the acquisition.

The above interviewees all believe that the opening price of rapeseed this year will be significantly lower than that of last year. In addition, the new policy has significantly increased the pressure on local finance. Take Hubei Province as an example, it has received a central financial subsidy of 226 million yuan. Based on the reserves and prices of rapeseed collected last year, Hubei is expected to provide 2 billion yuan. This is likely to affect the implementation of local policies, resulting in a slowdown in rapeseed acquisition this year, a significant reduction in reserves, and the launch of rapeseed will be delayed.