Rapeseed acquisition speed up the price may first restrain and then rise.

Rapeseed prices have fallen sharply since May. On the one hand, new rapeseed is gradually on the market after May, and the market supply increases; on the other hand, with the clarity of the New year's temporary rapeseed collection and storage policy, rapeseed prices will gradually become market-oriented.

Under the combined effect of these two reasons, rapeseed prices fell rapidly, but the decline gradually slowed. As the rapeseed price is close to the imported rapeseed price, the market will gradually digest the policy factors, and the rapeseed price will gradually stabilize and start a bottoming trend.

The progress of rapeseed collection and storage will be accelerated.

In the early stage, as enterprises and farmers were waiting for the introduction of relevant national policies, the acquisition and circulation of new rapeseed in 2015 was slow. However, acquisitions are still being carried out locally. Taking the acquisition in Hubei as an example, under the circumstances that the previous national policy is not yet clear, the Hubei Provincial Grain Bureau has actively guided oil processing enterprises to carry out market-oriented acquisitions, which can be opened to farmers for exchange, and can be collected in advance and made up later. buy at the market price first and subsidize the farmers when the policy is clear. The purchase price of rapeseed in Hubei Province has rebounded from 1.6 yuan / jin at the beginning of listing to 1.8 yuan / jin; Cofco Group and Hubei Grain and Oil Group have started to organize acquisitions at 1.7 yuan / jin and 1.8 yuan / jin respectively; Honghu Lang Rice Company and other enterprises have purchased and exchanged more than 10,000 tons of rapeseed at 1.65 yuan / jin. As of June 11, Hubei province has purchased a total of 30,000 tons of new rapeseed.

The supply is increasing and the market orientation is clear. After the policy is clear, the marketization process of rapeseed acquisition will be further promoted, and domestic high-quality non-GM rapeseed will return to the right price. At that time, there will be no wait-and-see mood in the main body of supply and demand in the rapeseed market.

Rapeseed prices may first decline and then rise.

Taking the planting situation of the main rapeseed producing area in Hubei Province as an example, the decline of rapeseed income has become a foregone conclusion, which may affect the planting enthusiasm of farmers in the future. According to preliminary statistics of the agricultural department, the sown area of rapeseed in Hubei Province this year is 18.77 million mu, an increase of about 40,000 mu over last year; the total output reached 2.6 million tons, a slight increase over last year; and the purchase volume of rapeseed will be the same as last year, with more than 1.2 million tons.

According to the survey, the average total cost of rapeseed production per mu this year is 587 yuan, which is 10.2 yuan less than last year's actual 597.2 yuan per mu. If the conservative yield per mu of 300-400 jin is calculated, the cost of rapeseed is about 1.47-1.97 yuan / jin. It is clear that the current market price of rapeseed is close to the loss line from the farmers' small profit. The author believes that the decline in rapeseed income this year has become a foregone conclusion, if it continues to decline, the planting enthusiasm of farmers will be affected, which will limit the further downward space of domestic rapeseed prices. But the current rapeseed purchase price of 1.8yuan / jin, rapeseed oil price of 7000 yuan / ton, rapeseed meal price of 2000 yuan / ton, crushing profit shows a loss. Therefore, in terms of current spot prices, although rapeseed rebounded somewhat compared with the previous period, it will be more difficult for rapeseed to rebound significantly before there are signs of significant improvement in downstream oil meal prices.

Global rapeseed production tends to shrink

From a broader oilseed supply perspective, soyabean supply is sufficient to suppress the market, but global rapeseed production tends to shrink and rapeseed supply and demand tightens as a result of declining rapeseed production in the European Union and Ukraine this year. Both global and domestic rapeseed supply is shrinking, and the evolution of El Ni ñ o may also affect Australian rapeseed supply. In the long run, these factors will limit the downside of rapeseed, and will be conducive to the long-term recovery of rapeseed prices.

The long-term supply side of rapeseed suppresses the further downward space of rapeseed no matter from the perspective of planting income or from the point of view of weather rising water of agricultural products. Once the demand for downstream products of rapeseed improves, rapeseed will show reasonable value.