Agricultural problem or Peasant problem the current stage and Development of China's Development

I. the current development stage and strategic choice of China

After more than 30 years of rapid development since reform and opening up, China has successfully stepped from a low-income country to a middle-income country. at present, it is in a critical period of transition from economic growth to economic development, from low-end processing and manufacturing to high value-added industries, and from a developing country to a developed country.

In the middle-income stage, there is a well-known middle-income trap. Historically, there have been few countries that have successfully entered the center of the system from the periphery of the world system since the 20th century. The group of developed countries, as at the beginning of the 20th century, is concentrated in Europe, the United States and Japan, and has not changed for more than a hundred years. What is worth mentioning and talked about by development economists is the rise of the four little dragons of Asia, and there are few successful countries. The four Little Dragons of Asia developed under the specific background of the Cold War, and on the whole, they are all very small. There are only a few million people in Singapore and Hong Kong, China, only 20 million in Taiwan, and only 50 million in South Korea, the largest. Together, the four little dragons have a population of just over 80 million, which is only 1 / 15 of the current population of Chinese mainland. In this sense, the current world pattern was finalized more than 100 years ago, and basically no large economy can change the basic structure or pattern of the world economy through rapid economic development. In general, developing countries either lack economic development, are still in the low-income stage, or experience certain development, and fall into the middle-income trap when they reach the middle-income stage, and their development is stagnant.

The force that is changing the world pattern at present is the development or rise of China. After more than 30 years of rapid economic development, China has successfully entered the ranks of middle-income countries from a low-income country. If China successfully breaks through the middle-income trap and enters the ranks of developed countries, the basic pattern of the world since modern times will change greatly. This will be an important event in the history of the world. The question is, can China break through the middle-income trap and how can it jump into the center of the world system?

The middle-income trap has two aspects, one is international, the other is domestic. From an international point of view, or from the perspective of the world system, the central country of the world system is the maker of international rules, the economy is in the central position of the system, and the industry is concentrated in the high value-added part. thus it forms a structure in which the central country transfers the crisis and export burden to the marginal countries and absorbs resources and benefits from the marginal countries. If the marginal countries of the world system want to enter the center, they must break such a structure of international vested interests, and there will inevitably be many conflicts. Domestically, when the economy develops to a certain stage, the growth potential is exhausted, and the structure of vested interests of all strata and classes in the country has taken shape, and no one can stand the loss of interests, but the interests available for distribution have not increased. the hard struggle between various strata and classes may lead to social disorder and even political unrest, and the iron law of "development leads to instability" plays a role. This is evident in the political instability that prevailed in middle-income countries in the 20th century.

The fundamental problem leading to the middle-income trap is that when the economy develops to a certain stage and leaps forward to the center of the world system, it will collide directly with the vested interest structure of the countries at the center of the system. This collision will in turn have an impact on the internal structure of middle-income countries, one of which is that the domestic strata who have been enjoying economic growth and forming interest expectations cannot face the cost of collision. The international breakthrough dilemma becomes the contradiction and struggle among the domestic classes in the form of economic cycle, which is expressed in a fierce way (even through political disorder) and becomes a domestic crisis. The domestic crisis weakens the ability of countries to break through the vested interest structure of the existing world system, thus stopping in middle-income countries.

At present, China is in such a critical and delicate period for the development of middle-income countries, the core of which is whether China can enter high value-added industries in international economy and trade. so as to change the basic economic structure and international interest pattern which is disadvantageous to China at present.

Whether China can get out of the middle-income trap depends on two strategies. one is whether China can concentrate its main resources on the national development strategy of developing high and new technology and realizing industrial upgrading. Instead of wasting the hard-earned money earned by sacrificing the environment, resources and generations, China should focus on developing strategic industries and realizing industrial upgrading, thus enabling China to successfully leap from low-end processing manufacturing to high value-added industries in the international economic structure. Only when China's main economic structure enters the middle and high end of the global industrial chain and is in the position of high value-added industries in the international economic structure, can China really enter the center of the world system and become a developed country from a middle-income country. On the other hand, the current domestic discussions on people's livelihood, environment, employment and economic growth are mostly aimless. China must realize the national strategy, the core of which is to develop high and new technology and carry out industrial upgrading. The second strategy is whether China can continue to maintain the coordination of interests among all sectors of the country, maintain the flexibility of China's social structure, and maintain China's social and political stability. These include China's ability to cope with the economic cycle and domestic stability of various external shocks.

How to implement such two national strategies? The author once put forward the strategic concept of "three-wheel drive" in the book "the Road to urbanization in China", and thought that the next 30 years will be the key period for China to get out of the middle-income trap and jump into the developed countries. China must make efforts in three aspects at the same time: first, concentrate resources to develop high and new technology and realize industrial upgrading, the key of this industrial upgrading is to occupy a position in the international high value-added industry. This is fundamental.

Where do the resources that can be concentrated come from in China to concentrate resources on the development of high and new technology to achieve industrial upgrading? In China at present and for a long time in the future, the main resources can only come from export-oriented "made in China". "made in China" is concentrated in low value-added industries, which can be said to be obtained mainly at the cost of cheap Chinese labor and at the expense of the environment and resources, or even sweatshops. Since reform and opening up, China has achieved rapid economic growth, from a low-income country to a middle-income stage, mainly relying on this export-oriented processing and manufacturing industry and this "factory of the world".

China's development of high and new technology in order to break through the existing economic pattern of the world, it is impossible to immediately get a return from high and new technology, but needs a lot of early investment, which can only come from the accumulation formed by the export-oriented processing and manufacturing industry. In the next 30 years, China must maintain international competitiveness in the processing and manufacturing industry, so as to obtain the necessary resource conditions for the development of high-tech national strategy.

Whether China's processing and manufacturing industry can continue to have international competitiveness is not only related to the development model adopted by the country, but also to China's comparative advantage. The reason why China has achieved rapid economic development through export-oriented manufacturing in China during the 30 years of reform and opening up is that China has a comparative advantage that ordinary developing countries do not have. First, high-quality and cheap labor; second, the advantages of the land system. The core of the advantage of the land system is that China's land system has basically eliminated the land rentiers; the third is China's efficient administrative rule of law system and stable political and social pattern.

As China changes from a low-income country to a middle-income country, cheap labor in "made in China" is no longer cheap, especially compared to "made in India" and "made in Vietnam". The price of Chinese labor has far exceeded that of ordinary developing countries. However, at present, "made in China" still has three major advantages, one is that the infrastructure is good, and the other is that it has formed a "made in China" industrial cluster chain, which helps to reduce the cost of "made in China". The third is to continue the efficient administrative rule of law system in China. Among them, good infrastructure is related to China's land system, because China's land system can increase prices and return to the public, and local governments can build good urban infrastructure through land finance derived from land transfer fees, so as to achieve "geographical sharing".

In other words, the negative impact of rising labor costs in China on "made in China" is offset by the positive impact of China's good infrastructure and industrial cluster system, and "made in China" is still internationally competitive. Maintaining the international competitiveness of "made in China" is the key for China to obtain national strategic resources.

Of course, a prerequisite for maintaining the competitiveness of made in China is that labor prices do not rise to the point where it is indigestible to make in China. At present, the reason why the price of labor made in China is not too high is determined by China's special labor reproduction mode. Specifically, at present, China has realized the reproduction of labor force through "half-work and half-farming based on intergenerational division of labor", and it is "part-time farming" that provides a way for failed migrant workers to return to their hometown. In other words, China's current widespread mode of elderly parents staying in the village for agriculture and young children to work in cities, so that migrant workers can accept relatively low remuneration and still be able to decently complete the reproduction of labor force. If there is no "semi-farming" in rural areas, and the whole families of migrant workers go to cities, if they want to live in cities, they must have higher wages, and if they are old and cannot return to their hometown, the state must provide them with more social security. It is "part-time ploughing" that greatly relieves the labor cost pressure of "made in China", so that made in China can maintain its international competitiveness.

In this sense, the structure of "half-work and half-farming based on intergenerational division of labor" is a key institutional arrangement to support manufacturing in China, and the "half-work and half-farming" system is based on the existence of old-age agriculture, small-scale peasant economy and small rural cooperative system. In this sense, the small-scale peasant economy still needs to be maintained in the next 30 years. At the same time, it is the maintenance of the small-scale peasant economy that makes the farmers who fail to enter the city have a way out, and when they encounter the economic cycle, migrant workers can still return home. The failure of migrant workers to return to the city is the reason why there are no large-scale urban slums in China. The small-scale peasant economy not only ensures food security for China, but also is the key to maintaining the flexibility of China's social structure. It is the small-scale peasant economy that provides a strong guarantee for China to deal with the crisis and maintain stability, and in this sense, rural areas are the stabilizer and reservoir of China's modernization.

In other words, in the next 30 years, with the three-wheel drive of small-scale peasant economy, made in China and industrial upgrading, China can break through the middle-income trap and enter the ranks of developed countries. Among the three, the most basic and biggest misunderstanding is the small-scale peasant economy, because the current policy departments and academic circles are trying to eliminate the small-scale peasant economy.

Rural areas as stabilizers and cisterns

In other words, in the next 30 years, the main goal of China's rural areas should be to serve and submit to the strategy of China's rise. China's economic development is extremely urban, China's social stabilizer is in rural areas, and all rural development considerations are focused on whether and how to serve the overall situation of China's modernization. If China can develop high and new technology and achieve industrial upgrading, so as to truly enter the central country of the world system, the problems of rural areas and agriculture will naturally be easily solved. Otherwise, the rural problems and agricultural problems themselves are still difficult to solve.

So, what problems should be solved in rural areas and agriculture? Or what kind of support should be provided for China's modernization in the critical period?

Generally speaking, in the next 30 years, rural areas and agriculture should have the following three particularly important functions. First, to ensure food security, so that the Chinese people can have enough to eat, it is best to eat well. Agriculture produces food and feeds the Chinese people, which is the most basic meaning of agriculture as the national economic foundation; the second is to continue to reproduce cheap and high-quality labor, so as to provide a comparative advantage for Chinese manufacturing with international competitiveness; the third is to provide a way for migrant workers who have failed to enter the cities to return home. It is the failure of migrant workers who can return home, which reduces the pressure on urban social security and avoids the emergence of large-scale urban slums.

In fact, over the past 30 years, China's rural areas have provided great support for China's modernization in the above three aspects, which is the key to China's rapid and stable economic development over the past 30 years. The reason why the above three major supports can be provided in rural areas is closely related to the "half-work and half-farming" family planning model or labor reproduction model which is commonly formed in rural areas under China's special national conditions.

Specifically, since the reform and opening up, a large number of surplus labor force hidden in agriculture has shifted to the secondary and tertiary industries, from township enterprises that do not leave the land to those who leave and leave their hometown to go to cities to work and do business, and the rural young and middle-aged labor force goes to cities to work and do business. the older and middle-aged labor force stay in the village to do agriculture. Based on the "two-tier management system based on household contracting and the combination of unification and division", China has formed a small-scale peasant management system with Chinese characteristics of "one mu per capita and no more than ten mu per household". Because of the surplus of agricultural labor, more labor and less land, after the young and middle-aged labor force has entered the city, the middle-aged and middle-aged labor force who stay in the village can still easily plant good fields, and the agricultural output, especially the grain output, has not decreased with the entry of a large number of young and middle-aged labor force into the city. on the contrary, there has been an "eleventh consecutive increase" in grain output. What is particularly important is that almost all China's rural areas have formed a "part-time" structure in which young children go to cities to work and do business, and elderly parents stay in the village to work. As a result, peasant families have increased their working income without reducing their agricultural income. The income of farmers' families has increased and their living conditions have improved.

While the structure of "part-time work and part-time ploughing based on intergenerational division of labor" is generally formed in rural areas, some farmers who go to cities are lucky and soon live in a decent and comfortable way in the cities. when the whole family goes to the city, they no longer farm the land. their contracted land is transferred to relatives and friends who are still working in the village, while there are always some young and middle-aged workers in rural areas who are unable or unwilling to go to the city for various reasons. They only grow their own contracted land. The area is too small, the income is too small, and there is a strong demand to flow into the farmland. In this way, the farmers whose families go to the city to stop farming will transfer the land to the young and middle-aged labor force who still stay in the village for farming. As a result, the young and middle-aged labor force who stay in the village can expand the farming area and even form appropriate scale operation. These young and middle-aged workers who stay in the village for agriculture have a large operating scale, rich industry income, other rural income, and relatively low consumption in rural areas, so they can earn no less than that of migrant workers. At the same time, it can ensure the integrity of family life, such a kind of economic income in rural areas, social relations in rural areas, can maintain a complete family life. And because the rural young and middle-aged labor force with low income and good mental outlook, we call it the "middle peasant". The number of this "middle peasant" group is not necessarily very large, and it may only account for 10% to 20% of the rural left-behind population, but it is very important. It is precisely this middle peasant + staying behind, the old, the weak, the sick and the disabled that can form a relatively stable grass-roots governance structure.

At present, the structure of "half-work and half-farming based on intergenerational division of labor" and the group of "middle farmers" in China's rural areas are also a dynamic structure that can be reproduced. This dynamic is shown in the following three aspects:

First, in peasant families, with the extension of time and the increase of age, the parents who stay in the village to work are getting older and older. They are not only unable to work in cities, but also more and more unable to do so. They quit agriculture. When these left-behind parents reach the age of withdrawing from agriculture (about 70 years old), their children who go to work in cities are no longer young, and some of them are almost 50 years old. they have fewer and fewer opportunities to work in the city, and eventually fail to go to the city, unable to live in a decent place in the city, and begin to return home. Returning home is a process. After several years, they finally returned to their hometown to replace their parents in farming. And the children of these elderly children have grown up and began to work in the city, or admitted to university to work in the city. In this way, the reproduction of the structure of "half-work and half-ploughing based on intergenerational division of labor" is realized.

Second, for farmers who fail to go to the cities, precisely because their parents are still working in rural areas, when they return to their hometown for farming, they have not only arable land, but also agricultural places, farming tools, farming techniques, and so on, so that they can successfully return to their hometown for farming. Even if the farmers whose whole family has gone to the city have transferred the contracted farmland to relatives and friends for farming, they can return the land for farming at any time as long as they want to farm the land. In this way, farmers are free to choose between going to the city or returning to their hometown. When it is difficult for them to enter the city or even fail to live in a decent place in the city, they can always return to their hometown. It is farmers who are free to return home, preventing Chinese cities from forming large-scale slums. Some people say that farmers prefer to go to the city rather than return to their hometown. This statement is not comprehensive. Farmers are willing to go to the city in the hope that they can live in a decent and comfortable place in the city. If they go to the city, they can only fall into the slums, and returning to their hometown is their extremely important right.

Third, the middle peasants themselves are unstable, and their income sources are diverse. They not only flow into the land to form moderate scale operations, but also engage in rich industries and handicrafts, and work as agricultural brokers to obtain income. they even rely on the income of village cadres to subsidize their families. Middle farmers can also go to work in cities, and as long as there are diversified income opportunities in rural areas, these diversified income opportunities can retain farmers who are still young and middle-aged in the village to obtain these opportunities.

The reason why "half-farming" is very important is not just that peasant families should obtain income from "half-farming", but that it has a much wider content. Middle-aged and elderly parents who stay in rural areas cultivate their own contracted land, "each household is no more than 10 mu." it is very difficult for them to grow high-priced crops in the market, but generally they can only grow bulk agricultural products. because the agricultural materials and products required for bulk agricultural products are standardized, there is no problem of purchase and sale, and its production technology is also a conventional mature technology, and there is no difficulty in learning. The cultivation of bulk agricultural products has the advantages of low risk, simple production technology, no problem of docking with the market, and of course it is impossible to get a high income. Excluding labor input, the annual net income of one mu of field crops is 1000 yuan, and 10 mu is 10, 000 yuan, which may only be equivalent to 1 million yuan of the current labor income.

The problem now is that there is a lack of opportunities for middle-aged and elderly farmers to work and do business in cities, and they may be pure consumers rather than producers. While farming in rural areas can have neither high nor low income from farming.

Apart from the income from farming, there is more or less income from rich industry in rural areas, and the most important thing is that rural areas have land and courtyards, so that they can be self-sufficient, and general daily necessities can be produced by themselves without having to buy them on the market. And you don't have to pay rent to live in your own house. The cost of living in rural areas is much lower than that in cities.

In this way, the "part-time work and part-time farming based on the intergenerational division of labor" not only has the two incomes of working and farming, but also is much lower than the cost of the whole family living in the city. this makes such a labor reproduction mode far more able to enable farmers to decently complete labor reproduction than the labor reproduction mode that leaves the whole family in the countryside and goes to the city.

What is particularly important is that under the current technical conditions of agricultural production, there are no technical and market risks for farmers to grow field crops, and the popularity of mechanization makes farming a relatively easy task, including the middle-aged and the elderly. There are even many elderly people in rural areas who say that farming is a good way to exercise. Whether or not to exercise is not necessarily, but engaging in agricultural production is a kind of employment beyond income, and it is an important way to prove that you are still valuable. Without employment, life is meaningless. Agriculture is carried out with the season, rural middle-aged and elderly farming, with the season is their sowing and harvest, hardship and hope.

In addition, farmers carry out agricultural production in a society of acquaintances born and raised here, which is their own, and relatives and friends gather nearby. even if they go out to work or even go to live in the city, the villagers still maintain close contact with the village. if you want to come back on New year's Day, you have to be buried in the village when you die, and you have to return to your roots and return to your hometown. Middle-aged and elderly farmers engaged in agriculture in the village, it is easy to get the support of social networks of acquaintances, but also have a strong sense of belonging, sense of security. This is the opposite of the alienation, strangeness and insecurity caused by the city. In this sense, the countryside is indeed a much better place to provide for the aged than the city. The brightly lit city life has already been experienced when the young came to the city, and these are other people's (rich people's), the quiet countryside is their own good home, is that no one will think bad home.

In other words, the "half-work and half-farming" structure formed in the past few decades can still play an important role in the next 20 to 30 years. On the one hand, the more the economy develops, the more migrant workers have the conditions to live in the city. From then on, they leave the countryside and integrate into the city, and they even send their parents who stay in the countryside to live in the city. At the same time, there are always some farmers who fail to go to the cities and have to return to the countryside and live in the countryside. At this time, it is very important for them to retain the way for farmers to return to their hometown, as well as for China's modernization. Once China can complete its industrial upgrading and enter the ranks of developed countries, cities can provide the vast majority of migrant workers with decent employment and income conditions, even if a small number of migrant workers fail to move to the city. the state also has ways to provide social security for them to live in cities. At that time, it did not matter whether the peasants could return to their hometown.

In other words, maintaining the current small-scale peasant management of "one mu per capita and no more than 10 mu per household" in rural areas can not only maintain the low-cost labor reproduction mode of "part-time labor and part-time farming based on intergenerational division of labor". Moreover, it can provide an exit for farmers who fail to enter the cities, thus providing strong support for "made in China" and a strong guarantee for China to cope with the economic cycle and all kinds of instability in the process of modernization. The countryside has become the stabilizer and reservoir of China's modernization.

Another question is whether the small-scale peasant economy can ensure China's food security and whether agriculture for the elderly can support China. It should be said that the experience of agricultural development all over the world has proved that the output capacity of small-scale peasant economy is higher and better than that of scale operation. The 11th consecutive increase in grain production in China in the face of a massive labor outflow is also the best proof. If the old people grow grain and cultivate it carefully, the yield per mu must be very high. Of course, it is not without problems, let alone agriculture. Let's discuss it further.