The prices of the three staple grains have all fallen, and the prices of agricultural products may be changed or accelerated.

With a poor harvest, farmers may not be happy this autumn.

Since the third quarter, the prices of the three major staple grains in China have been falling steadily. According to statistics, corn fell the most, with the purchase price falling from an annual high of 2279 yuan / ton to 1980 yuan / ton, a drop of 13.1 percent, while the purchase price of wheat fell from an annual high of 2564 yuan / ton to 2274 yuan / ton, a decrease of 11.3 percent. The purchase price of early rice fell from an annual high of 2720 yuan / ton to 2595 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.6 percent.

Both import and output increase

"at present, the national collection and storage price of corn is 1 yuan per jin, but in fact, the market price has dropped to more than 70 cents." This is the helpless voice from the peasants.

In September this year, the state lowered the listing price of corn for the first time in seven years, from 1.12 yuan per jin last year to 1 yuan per jin. Affected by the expectation of the market for the adjustment of temporary corn acquisition and storage policy, the purchase price of corn market has fallen rapidly and has gradually been in line with international low prices.

Corn is the most serious surplus of the three staple grains. Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Shanghai Securities News that the pattern of corn oversupply is caused by domestic overcapacity on the one hand and the substitution effect of foreign low-cost miscellaneous grain imports on the other. Due to the regulation and control of tariff quotas, the direct imports of the three staple grains are not much, about 3 to 5 million tons, but more than 10 million tons of miscellaneous grains such as sorghum and barley instead of corn are imported, affecting the stock of corn in China.

"in the past few years, domestic grain prices have been on the high side, and high social expectations on prices have also aroused the enthusiasm of farmers to develop agricultural production; coupled with the state's encouragement to cultivate new main bodies, many large households and capital have invested in agriculture one after another, resulting in serious overcapacity." Li Guoxiang said.

On the one hand, there is high production capacity and imports, on the other hand, there are few market transactions. At the national temporary storage corn auction fair held from October 22 to 23, only 2500 tons of 5.2971 million tons were sold, with a transaction rate of only 0.05 percent, with an average transaction price of 2370 yuan per ton. Wang Cheng, an analyst at Guolian Securities, said in the research report that under the pressure of high inventory and high output, China's corn prices are likely to continue to decline.

Price and structure are facing double adjustment

The situation of shrinking grain prices this year may speed up the reform of the industry's price mechanism and the adjustment of the industrial structure. The "opinions on promoting the Reform of the Price Mechanism" issued this month made it clear that we should make overall use of both international and domestic markets, pay attention to giving full play to the role of the market in forming prices, and the prices of agricultural products are mainly determined by the market. Implement differential support policies for different varieties, adjust and improve the "yellow box" support policy, and gradually expand the scale and scope of the "green box" support policy.

Last year, China abolished the temporary collection and storage policy for cotton and soybeans and implemented the target price subsidy method, which provided a reform direction for other agricultural products support policies. Chen Jia, an analyst at Changjiang Securities, said: "since the beginning of this year, the state has repeatedly stressed the improvement of the price formation mechanism of agricultural products, and it is expected that the national corn temporary storage policy will be adjusted soon."

On the 21st of this month, Xu Kunlin, director of the Price Department of the Development and Reform Commission, said at a news conference on promoting the reform of the price mechanism that after liberalizing the purchase price of tobacco, the price of agricultural products was completely formed by the market and there was no government pricing project. However, after opening up, it does not mean that the government does not care, it is necessary to take a variety of means and measures to stabilize agricultural production.

Li Guoxiang predicted that in the coming period of time, the state will adopt a stable policy on the prices of wheat and rice, while the temporary collection and storage prices of corn may fall next year, and the temporary collection and storage policy of other agricultural products may be cancelled. "as for what to do with the subsidy system after it is abolished, the central government is still doing research and formulation in various parts of the country." He said.

Behind the price reform is the adjustment of the planting structure of the whole industry. In the past few years, there has been an unreasonable allocation of crop resources in China, and farming is mainly concentrated on a few varieties. In the future, corn planting in ecologically fragile areas will be gradually reduced, multiple grain rotation will be adopted, and variety diversity and balance will be increased. In addition, through the price subsidy policy to adjust the planting structure to reduce excess capacity.

Deep processing and feed are good.

The fall in food prices also makes some downstream enterprises see hope. At present, most of the downstream deep processing enterprises such as corn are still at a loss or stop production, and the operating rate is low. Cheung Kong Securities believes that the improvement in the cost side may lead to short-term elasticity of performance, and downstream enterprises in the food and beverage industry with corn, wheat and soybeans as the main raw materials will directly benefit from the cost improvement brought about by falling raw material prices.

Guotai Junan Futures [Weibo] researcher believes that due to the decline in corn starch prices, the price gap between white sugar and starch sugar continues to widen, starch sugar has an alternative advantage, in addition, the decline in starch prices makes domestic starch gradually have the price advantage of exports, which may boost starch demand.

However, the corn processing industry itself is in a state of surplus, and whether productivity can be improved depends on downstream demand. Industry experts point out that the deep processing industry has suffered heavy losses this year, so the key depends on whether exports can improve profits or look for product innovation.

In addition, downstream forage production may be the development direction of the industry in the future. Li Guoxiang pointed out that at present, China's pork consumption is already saturated, and there is still room for growth in domestic consumption such as beef and mutton milk in the future, which creates a demand for forage grass. "at present, China has a large demand for forage imports and a serious surplus of corn production. When we encourage the cultivation of green corn and so on, when the corn is half grown, it will be harvested as fodder to eliminate this part of the production capacity."