Northeast japonica rice price upward weak stability or mainstream

It is understood that at present, with the gradual decline in temperature and the end of large-scale rice harvest, the market volume of japonica rice in Northeast China has increased, and policy acquisitions are being carried out one after another. At the same time, all kinds of grain purchasing, marketing and processing enterprises have also entered the market one after another, but due to the sluggish demand in the terminal market and the temporary reserve purchase price to support the market, farmers have a strong psychology of selling grain, and the main grain users are cautious in purchasing new grain. In addition, at present, in the areas where the temporary storage is purchasing, the price is stabilizing, while in the areas that have not yet been opened, there are not many rice purchases, and at the same time, there are certain differences in rice quality, such as more than 18% moisture. Rice production rate less than 67% of the rice price purchase price is on the low side. The specific analysis is as follows:

The purchase and sale price of rice market is stabilizing.

Recently, the policy acquisition of japonica rice market in Northeast China has been carried out one after another, and its price has stabilized under this support. It is understood that so far, the purchase price of grade 3 japonica rice produced in Changchun, Jilin Province in 2015 is 3120 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton from last weekend, and the purchase price of northeast rice is 4850 yuan / ton, which is the same as last weekend. Songyuan Tiexi third-grade japonica rice train plate price of 3200 yuan / ton, flat, marked a northeast meter train plate price of 4650 yuan / ton, flat. The purchase price of second-grade japonica rice in Jiamusi area of Heilongjiang Province is 3400 yuan / ton, and the train price of the second northeast rice is 4680 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. The purchase price of second-grade japonica rice in Hulin region in 2014 was 3240 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton from last week, while the train plate price of Biaoyi northeast rice was 4400 yuan / ton, the same as last week.

Farmers' rice harvest work is basically over.

At present, the rice harvest period of farmers in Northeast China has basically ended. Take Jilin Province as an example, because Jilin farmers' rice is affected by low temperature and slow seedling at the turning green stage, the extension of rice growing period leads to the postponement of rice harvest by about half a month, which ends on October 25. In addition, due to the warming weather and other factors, timely late harvest may become the norm. The area of rice transplanting in Jilin this year is about 11.8 million mu, 20, 000 mu less than last year, or 0.2%, with a per unit yield of 1010 jin / mu. The output of 6 million tons is the same as that of last year or slightly increased. The quality of rice is basically the same as that of last year. The roughness rate is more than 77%. The first class accounts for 20%, the second class accounts for 50%, and the third class accounts for 30%, all the same as last year. However, due to the early low temperature, weather and other factors, the rice yield of Jilin rice this year is low and perennial, and the average rice yield is lower than the 66-67% of the usual year, about 65%.

There has been a marked increase in the number of japonica rice in the stock market.

At present, the situation of "new" strong "old" and "high quality and high price" in the rice market is obvious. With the increase in the number of storage sites that supported the market acquisition, the policy grain storage volume also showed a rapid increase this week. according to grain storage statistics, from October 16 to 20, various producing areas across the country purchased a total of 260200 tons of japonica rice in 2015, compared with 3300 tons in the previous period. As of October 20, the cumulative acquisition of japonica rice in the market was 263500 tons, while the purchase at the protective price in the same period last year had not yet started. As the main varieties purchased by the national storage, the performance of relatively low-cost ordinary japonica rice is better than that of high-quality rice market as a whole.

Sluggish demand in the rice market and falling prices

Since late October, the listing of new season japonica rice has increased, while the market demand for rice has remained depressed, especially after the listing of new japonica rice in the main producing areas, the market acquisition is not active, and prices have fallen in some parts of the south. Up to now, the wholesale price of round rice in the northeast of Beijing market is 4460-4640 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week; the wholesale price of japonica rice produced in Jiangsu in Hangzhou area is about 4520 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton from last week; the wholesale price of round rice in Heilongjiang is 4920 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton from last week; and the wholesale price of northeast japonica rice in Fuzhou market is 5200 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton compared with last week. At present, it is in the middle of the listing of northeast japonica rice and southern medium indica rice, and starting in November, Jiangsu new season japonica rice and late indica rice produced in Hunan and Jiangxi will also be listed in batches, and the rice market will enter a new round of supply cycle. The market is likely to continue a weak adjustment pattern.

Domestic rice imports increased in September

According to customs statistics, China imported 357700 tons of rice in September 2015, an increase of 66.37 percent over the previous month and 98.72 percent over the same period last year. From January to September, China imported a total of 2.3142 million tons of rice, an increase of 26.65 percent over the same period last year. In the second half of the year, rice imports gradually increased, coupled with a large number of domestic new season middle and late rice on the market, the short-term market supply pressure increased.

The price of rice in the international market began to rise.

In October, a number of agencies cut global rice production in 2015. USDA expects global rice production in 2015 to be 474 million tons, 1.7 million tons lower than last month's forecast, and 1% lower than the previous year. The International Grain Council (IGC) expects global rice production to be 476.6 million tons in 2015, down from an earlier forecast of 478.8 million tons and 479.1 million tons last year, which will be the first decline in global rice production since 2009. At present, due to the decline in global rice production, the spot market price of rice in Asia has begun to rise. it is understood that up to now, 100% grade B rice in Thailand is quoted at US $383 / ton (about 2432 yuan / ton), up US $2 / ton from the same period last week and down US $53 / ton from the same period last year. Bangkok FOB quotes. Vietnam's 10% broken rice is quoted at $365 / ton (about 2318 yuan / ton), up $18 / tonne from the same period last week and down $70 / tonne from the same period last year, Ho Chi Minh City FOB quoted.

To sum up, with the increase of new rice on the market, the contradiction of market supply exceeding demand will gradually appear, and it is expected that the price of japonica rice in Northeast China will be weak, but after Heilongjiang Province and Anhui Province launched the implementation plan of 2015 minimum purchase price for japonica rice, Jiangsu Province and Jilin Province also launched the implementation plan of 2015 minimum purchase price for japonica rice from October 19 and October 25, respectively, in order to curb price decline and boost market acquisition activity. To ensure that farmers' income will not be affected, but also to prevent market prices from rising and falling. Therefore, at present, the number of new season japonica rice on the market is gradually increasing, and the main body of acquisition is also increasing. Due to the difference of region, quality and management nature, the purchase price of japonica rice is different. Overall, the purchase and sale of domestic japonica rice market is in transition to new grain, the old grain temporarily withdrew from the market during the purchase period, the price decline is not obvious, maintaining stability may become the mainstream.