Egg | profit Analysis and early warning of Poultry Egg breeding

I. important monitoring and early warning indicators

The national average price of each link

1. Price of meat and eggs:

As of May 26, the price of meat and eggs was 0.60 yuan per egg, up 0.11 yuan from the previous month.

2. Price of broiler chicks

As of May 26, the price of broiler chicks was 0.84 yuan per chicken, up 0.21 yuan from the previous month.

3. Price of feathered chicken:

As of May 26, the price of feathered chicken was 3.19 yuan / jin, up 0.09 yuan / jin from the previous month.

1. Price of White-striped Chicken:

As of May 26, the price of white-striped chicken was 12.08 yuan / kg, down 0.87 yuan / kg from the previous month.

2. The price of commercial egg chicks:

As of May 17, the price of commercial egg chicks was 2.79 yuan per chicken, down 0.08 yuan from the previous month.

3. Egg price:

As of May 26, the price of eggs was 2.06 yuan per jin, unchanged from last weekend.

4. Knockout chicken price:

As of May 26, the price of eliminated chickens was 2.08 yuan, an increase of 0.06 yuan / jin compared with the previous month.

Henan price

1. Price of meat and eggs:

As of May 26, the price of meat and eggs was 0.55 yuan per egg, up 0.10 yuan from the previous month.

2. Price of broiler chicks

As of May 26, the price of broiler chicks was 0.85 yuan per chicken, up 0.20 yuan from the previous month.

3. Price of feathered chicken:

As of May 26, the price of feathered chicken was 3.12 yuan / jin, up 0.15 yuan / jin from the previous month.

4. Egg price:

As of May 26, the price of eggs was 1.92 yuan / jin, up 0.02 yuan / jin from the previous month.

5. Knockout chicken price:

As of May 26, the price of eliminated chickens was 2.05 yuan, an increase of 0.07 yuan / jin compared with the previous month.

Save column

1. Monthly stock of layers:

Data from relevant institutions show that in April 2017, the total number of laying hens in China was 1.341 billion, an increase of 1.41% over March and a decrease of 11.29% over the same period last year; the number of laying hens in stock was 1.135 billion, an increase of 1.07% over March and a decrease of 9.83% over the same period last year; the stock of backup hens was 206 million, an increase of 3.30% over March and a sharp decrease of 18.52% over the same period last year The number of supplementary flocks for raising chicks increased by 9.67% compared with March, significantly decreased by 29.24% compared with the same period last year, and the stock of young chickens decreased by 7.73% compared with March. Chicken age structure data released during the same period show that the proportion of rearing chicks rose sharply to 7.46% in April 2017 from 5.23% last month, while that of young chickens dropped sharply to 10.51% from 12.68% last month. The proportion of main laying hens dropped to 73.4% from 74.28% last month, and the proportion of chickens to be eliminated rebounded to 8.65% from 7.83% last month.

Aquaculture profit, profit of each link

1. Profit of broiler breeding

As of May 26, the breeding profit of theoretical broilers was-0.04 yuan per feather, an increase of 0.21 yuan per feather compared with the previous month.

2. Profits from meat and poultry breeding:

As of May 26, the profit of theoretical broiler breeding was-0.67 yuan per chicken, up 0.37 yuan from the previous month.

3. Laying hen breeding profit:

As of May 26, the breeding profit of theoretical laying hens was-14.84 yuan / 100, an increase of 0.03 yuan / 100 compared with the previous month.

II. Monitoring and early warning of important events

1. Domestic developments:

On May 19, the Shaanxi Animal Husbandry Association submitted a document to the Shaanxi Provincial Department of Agriculture, calling on the government to help rebuild public confidence in poultry products and provide financial support to poultry enterprises to rescue the struggling poultry industry.

On May 13, the veterinary department of Wuqing District of Tianjin found that laying hens raised in a farm showed suspected symptoms of bird flu, with 10000 cases and 6000 deaths. On May 24th, it was confirmed by the National Avian Influenza reference Laboratory that the epidemic was H7N9 influenza. At present, the epidemic has been effectively controlled.

2. Weather:

Under the influence of the low vortex shear system, from May 31 to June 2, there will be a heavy rainfall in the eastern part of Southwest China, Jiangnan and South China from west to east, among which, there will be torrential rain (50080mm) in southeastern Chongqing, northeastern Guizhou, north-central Hunan, most of Jiangxi, southern Zhejiang, most of Fujian, northern and eastern Guangdong. There will be torrential rain in southeastern Chongqing, north-central Hunan, central Jiangxi, Fujian and northeastern Guangdong. Some of these areas will be accompanied by short-term heavy precipitation, with an hourly rainfall intensity of 30 mm to 50 mm and a maximum of 60 mm to 80 mm. Southern Jiangnan and northern South China are locally accompanied by thunderstorms and strong winds or hail. To this end, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued a blue rainstorm warning at 06:00 on May 31.

3. International eggs:

According to South Korean media reports, in order to stabilize the price of eggs, the South Korean government will supply 4 million to 5 million eggs at a lower price than the market price early next month through the Farmers' Association. In addition, in order to stabilize the price of chicken, the South Korean government has urgently released 2100 tons of government reserves from May 24.

III. Market prospects and strategic suggestions

Broiler

The price of meat chicken this weekend is 0.09 yuan / jin higher than that of last week. Due to the early feathered chicken diseases, farmers out of the column ahead of time, the recent reduction in the number of hairy chicken, supporting the price of hairy chicken, but the terminal demand has not significantly improved, at the same time, egg prices remain low, elimination of chickens increased, it is expected that the increase in the price of feathered chicken will be limited.

Egg

Spot eggs fell slightly this week and stabilized. With the recent rise in temperature and the decrease in the laying rate, the shelf life of eggs has become shorter, and the oversupply of eggs has improved. At the same time, the industry has suffered overall losses, and the spot decline of eggs is limited, which may be boosted by the Dragon Boat Festival in the short term. It is expected that the price of eggs will be more than 3.0 yuan per jin from July to September, and farmers can eliminate some old chickens with serious losses according to the actual situation.

Author: agricultural investment punk