Analysis on the Operation of Pig Market in Fengcheng City during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival in 2009 and the trend before Spring Festival in 2010

(agricultural Wealth net) Analysis on the Operation of Pig Market during the first and double periods

According to the monitoring results of Fengcheng Business Administration Office on the designated pig slaughtering sites, pork sales markets, supermarkets and other monitoring points in the city, the pork consumption in our city is exuberant and the market price is stable during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival in 2009.

Judging from the market price, during the double festival this year, the average factory price of live pigs in our city was 12.4 yuan / kg, the wholesale price of pork was 18.4 yuan / kg, the average price of pork sold in the market was 16.76 yuan / kg, and the average price of lean meat was 22.96 yuan / kg. In the same period last year, the average factory price of live pigs was 13.00 yuan / kg, the wholesale price of pork was 20.00 yuan / kg, and the average price of pork sold in the market was 19.76 yuan / kg. The average price of lean meat is 26.76 yuan per kilogram, and this year's price has dropped by 4.62%, 8.00%, 15.18% and 14.20%, respectively, compared with the same period last year.

From the perspective of pork consumption, this year's double festival is the first 8-day long holiday, while last year's Mid-Autumn Festival was September 14, which was separated from the National Day for a long time. Holidays have a certain positive effect on residents' consumption. During the double festival this year, the average daily slaughtering capacity of the designated slaughterhouse in our city was 162head, 13 more than that of the same period last year; the average daily supply of pork in the designated slaughterhouse in the city was 14679.61 kg, 1678.34 kg more than that of 13001.27 kg in the same period last year.

Generally speaking, the decline in market prices and holiday consumption habits stimulate the purchasing power of residents, resulting in an increase in pork consumption and an increase in slaughtering.

Second, the forecast of pig market before the Spring Festival in 2010.

At present, the main factors affecting pig prices are:

1. Corn prices continue to rise. Since October, domestic corn prices have risen for the ninth month in a row, and the average wholesale price of local corn has risen to 2004 yuan / ton, up 3.03% from the previous month, 4.62% from the same period last year, and 13.33% from the beginning of the year.

2. As our city has entered the autumn and winter season, people have the habit of filling sausages and pickled bacon, coupled with the stimulating effect of holidays such as New Year's Day and rural temple fairs, the pork market will usher in the peak consumption season.

3. Central and local policies to support the market. Since the implementation of the national regulation and control plan to prevent excessive decline in pig prices (interim) at the beginning of the year, in order to maintain the healthy development of pig production and pork market, our city has also launched live pig reserves in time, further strengthening the supporting role of the policy to the pig market.

Generally speaking, due to the current pig grain price ratio of 6.08 to 1, pig prices are near the break-even point, coupled with the support of corn prices, pork reserves and peak selling season on pig prices, as well as the interaction of farmers' concentration of commercial pigs in the peak sales season, it is expected that pig prices may fluctuate slightly before the Spring Festival in 2010, and pork prices sold in the market will run smoothly.

12 October 2009