Grain prices are easy to rise in October! It's hard to fall!

I. Review of the grain market in September

Recently, under the influence of global extreme weather, grain production in major grain-producing countries such as Russia and Canada has been reduced on a large scale, and the imbalance between global food supply and demand has further intensified. In terms of the domestic situation, the price of agricultural products represented by corn rose across the board, which also led to the upward movement of the domestic grain price center.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year in August, 0.6% month-on-month, and the price increase expanded, mainly related to the tail-warping factor and the new price increase factor. Among the new price increase factors, grain rose 12% year-on-year, while the price rise of agricultural products contributed about 70% to the new price increase. It can be seen that the sharp rise in CPI is disadvantageous to the national management of inflation and macro-economy.

In order to ensure national food security and maintain the stability of the domestic grain market, the state has recently introduced a number of regulation and control measures. While strengthening the macro-control of the wheat, corn and early rice markets, relevant measures have been introduced many times to ensure this year's autumn grain production. A few days ago, in order to ensure the basic stability of market supply and prices, the National Development and Reform Commission, the State Grain Administration, the Ministry of Finance, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China jointly issued the Circular on strict discipline and earnestly doing a good job in the work of policy grain out of warehouses. Relevant departments are required to strictly abide by the regulations on policy grain sales and export, strictly implement the responsibility system for policy grain export, and strictly implement the quality standards for policy grain export. In addition, in order to ensure the stability of the prices of agricultural products during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, the state also requires relevant departments to strengthen price supervision.

(1) in September, both domestic and foreign corn reached new highs.

In September, corn at home and abroad as a whole showed an upward trend, in contrast, the rising trend of corn in the United States was more violent, mainly due to the strong global demand for American agricultural products caused by the impact of a big reduction in wheat production in the Black Sea region. Driven by the single intervention of funds, the CBOT corn contract broke through the 500-cent mark on the 19th. The domestic Dalian corn futures 1105 contract was suppressed by national policy regulation in September, and the futures price showed a horizontal shock pattern in the first half of the month, but the market's expectation of a tight balance of corn supply in the new year is also getting stronger and stronger. futures prices broke the first line of 2100 yuan / ton in the second half of the month.

Judging from the spot situation in September, the State Reserve auction is still continuing. on the one hand, the port corn traders are still optimistic about the long-term market due to the sharp reduction in state reserve stocks, on the other hand, the southern port traders think that the port supply is still relatively abundant, so they are in no hurry to replenish the stock. On the whole, the price of high-quality corn in the northeast port remains stable. The flat price of high-quality corn in Dalian Port is 1990-2010 yuan / ton, and the moisture content is 14%. The purchase price of high-quality corn in Jinzhou Port is about 1940 yuan / ton, and the flat price is 1990-2010 yuan / tonne. From the southern port, the transaction price of pig and chicken corn in Guangdong port is 2060-2070 yuan / ton, and the relatively poor quality corn is 2020-2060 yuan / ton.

In mid-late September, a small amount of new corn began to be harvested, and the price of Jilin elm was relatively stable. The listed price of corn in Yushu COFCO is 1700 yuan per ton, with 14% moisture, but the purchase quantity is very small. the cost after threshing and drying by traders is about 1630-1640 yuan / ton, moisture 15%, and the exiting price of trade commodity old corn is 1820 yuan / tonne. The exiting price of corn auctioned by the State Reserve is 1750-1780 yuan / ton.

(2) with the increase in demand, the price of strong wheat in September has risen to a higher level.

Since September, the domestic flour market has been affected by the holiday effect, and the consumption of urban groups at the beginning of colleges and universities has increased, and the purchasing demand for flour wheat in processing enterprises has increased in stages. In addition, due to the low enthusiasm of farmers in producing areas to sell grain and the lack of supply in the purchase and sale market, wheat prices in some producing areas have risen again. The price of domestic strong wheat futures market as a whole went up to a higher level in September. After the main 1105 contract reached a new high of 2580 yuan / ton in the first ten days, it showed a high shock trend under the influence of state regulation and control.

Judging from the spot situation, by the end of the month, the price of wheat in Henan remained stable, of which the purchase price of Zhengzhou flour mill was about 1980 yuan / ton, that of Nanyang flour mill was 1950 yuan / ton, that of traders was 1900 yuan / ton, and that of the platform was 1950 yuan / ton. The purchase price of wheat in Shandong Linyi flour mill is 2040-2050 yuan / ton, the trader is about 2020 yuan / ton, and the grain depot is about 2040 yuan / ton.

(3) due to lack of bullish support, early indica rice declined weakly in September.