Forecast trend of pig prices in 2011

Pig farming is an industry with a long production cycle. In China, the vast majority of pig farmers always determine the output of the next phase according to the price of the previous cycle. If the price in the previous period is lower, farmers will reduce their production, which will lead to a shortage of pork in the future. This is directly related to the last round of price collapse, small funds do not have the strength to go up to pigs, sufficient funds, often well aware of the risks of the pig industry, it is impossible to fight the war. Therefore, the number of live pigs on the market will be greatly reduced. The key is to have a large stock of breeding sows. Contact with the reality around you, look around yourself, the number of cars that pull out pigs has obviously increased.

Generally speaking, the benefit of the breeding industry is good in the second half of the year, and the future is bright, but pig prices are not expected to soar.

1. The improvement of the benefit of the pig industry drives up the prices of corn and soybeans in Henan Province.

Recently, pig prices have rebounded significantly, the efficiency of the breeding industry has improved, and the demand for feed such as corn and soybean meal has increased, driving up the prices of corn and soybeans. In late July, the purchase prices of corn and soybeans in Henan Province were 1866 yuan / ton and 3978 yuan / ton, up 0.32% and 0.25% respectively from late June. The analysis shows that due to the rebound in demand and tight supply, the situation of corn is difficult to change in the short term, and the situation of high shock will be maintained before a large number of new corn goes on the market. Soybean prices are greatly affected by the international market and the main producing areas in Northeast China, and the overall recovery of the economy and the slow rebound of downstream demand form a strong support for soybean prices. however, the impact of low-price imported soybeans and the downturn of the edible oil market will limit the room for soybean prices to pick up, and it is expected that there is a greater possibility of a slight rebound in soybean prices in the later period.

2. The situation of piglet fencing has improved, which shows that the enthusiasm of raising pigs has been greatly improved.

After the retaliatory rebound since June, the recent high pig prices in some parts of the country have fallen, but the range of decline is limited, and the benefits of pig farming still maintain a good level. Boosted by the improvement of breeding efficiency, the farmers' willingness to supplement the livestock of piglets was also active in July, which promoted the gradual recovery of pig stock.

3. Recently, domestic pig prices have gone up and down, but the benefits of breeding have remained stable.

With the rapid rebound of domestic pig prices since June, the current domestic pig prices have entered a high range. However, due to the inhibition of meat consumption in the high temperature season, there is a certain resistance to the further rise of pig prices. Moreover, with the improvement of the logistics situation, the high prices of hairy pigs in some areas have fallen recently (such as Shanghai, Jiangxi, etc.). According to JCI understanding, the recent domestic wool pig price at 6.5mur6.8 yuan / jin, the previous high areas fell by 0.2mur0.3 yuan / jin. Although some domestic pig prices are adjusted to a high level, the profit of breeding in most areas is stable at 100pi / 300 yuan per head, and the pig-grain price ratio is still above 6.0 (6.38). It is expected that short-term pig prices will be mainly arranged at a high level, and the market generally pays attention to the performance of the pig consumption market on the eve of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day.