Pig profits break through 600 yuan per head of supply and demand gap or continue to expand

On June 3, the national pig breeding profit broke through 600 yuan per head, compared with 400 yuan two weeks ago and a lower level of 200 yuan in the same period last year. If the profit situation of pig farming is divided according to normal, high profit, high profit and ultra-high profit, the pig industry is already in the stage of high profit.

On the other hand, the main basis for judging the short-term, medium-term and long-term trend of pig market prices is that the index of sow stock change has declined for four consecutive months, while the increase in the overall stock of live pigs is caused by the replenishment of piglets, so it is difficult to supplement market supply in the short term. Correspondingly, the national average price of pigs and pork has repeatedly set new highs.

"the high scene of pig farming will be a high probability event throughout 2011." A large brokerage analyst told the Daily Economic News.

The profit of pig farming goes up month by month.

On June 3, the average price of fenced pigs nationwide was 17.7 yuan / kg, compared with 9.38 yuan / kg in the same period last year, up 88.7% from the same period last year. The price of pork was 26.95 yuan / kg, compared with 14.95 yuan / kg in the same period last year, up 80.27% from the same period last year.

The price of live pigs has risen, with the national price of pig feed and pig grain at 6.23 and 7.83, respectively, up 72.09% and 69.5% over the same period last year, with an average profit of 610 yuan since breeding, which is also the highest level since May 2008. In June last year, the average profit of live pigs was still in the first line of 200 yuan.

In July 2010, pig prices in China entered a rising cycle, but after the resumption of the demand season, the gap between supply and demand in the pig market gradually expanded, resulting in a continuous rise in pig and pork prices for 8-9 months. even after the Spring Festival in 2011, there was no seasonal downward adjustment. Specifically, from January to April 2011, the average price of live pigs rose 40.27% from the same period last year, and the average price of pork rose 33.04% from the same period last year. Among them, the average price of live pigs rose 57.66% in April from the same period last year, and the average price of pork rose 50.48% from the same period last year.

With the rise in pig prices, the profit situation of the pig farming industry has also improved significantly. In July 2010, the profits of live pigs were in break-even. With the rise of pig prices, the profits of each pig broke through 100 yuan and 200 yuan respectively, while in November 2010, the profit per pig exceeded 300 yuan.

In 2011, the profit of pig farming further improved. The average net profit from January to April was 307 yuan per head, 378 yuan per head, 365 yuan per head and 370 yuan per head respectively. At the end of May, the average profit per head approached 500 yuan per head, and now it has exceeded 600 yuan per head. If the benefit of pig industry is divided into six stages: low, slightly low, normal, slightly higher, higher and too high, the profit of 610 yuan per head is already in the higher stage of pig farming profit.

A large brokerage analyst believes that as the rise in pig prices is mainly caused by insufficient supply, the pressure of higher farming costs is transmitted smoothly downstream. Affected by national restrictions on the use of corn for deep processing and sufficient soybean imports, it is expected that the increase of domestic corn will slow down in the future, soybean meal prices may fall, and pig prices are on a rising channel. as a result, the high profitability of the aquaculture industry will remain at least for the whole of 2011.

The gap between supply and demand may continue to expand

The main basis for judging the short-term, medium-term and long-term trend of live pigs is the changing trend of sows. Generally speaking, the sow stock will appear an inflection point 3-5 months after the break-even in the pig market, the enthusiasm of filling the column will be improved, and the sow stock will begin to pick up. However, in mid-July 2010, the pig market became profitable, but the enthusiasm of making up the fence was not high all the time.

Feng Yonghui, chief analyst at Souzhu, believes that the high and frequent incidence of pig disease has led to low enthusiasm for fencing, coupled with frequent regulation and control policies and repeated storage to stabilize pig prices, leading to the lowest level since 2008 at the end of the first quarter of this year.

On the other hand, there is a 12-month cycle from fattening sows to affecting pig supply and pig price demand "3-month mating, 4-month pregnancy, 5-month fattening". During this period, the recovery of sow stock and total stock increases, which does not affect the supply and price of fattening pigs.

Feng Yonghui believes that the supply and demand of live pigs is in tight balance throughout 2011, and the possibility of a sustained oversupply is very low. Unless there is a special case of serious pig disease that causes a large number of diseased pigs to disturb the market, the gap may continue to expand.

In addition, the national pig stock increased by 0.38% month-on-month in April, which is mainly caused by replenishing piglets, making it difficult to replenish the market supply in the short term, according to an analyst at a large brokerage. At the same time, the stock of fertile sows in China has decreased for 4 consecutive months from January to April. The brokerage analysts believe that the changing inflection point of breeding sows is the factor that determines the inflection point of pig prices, and even if backup sows begin to fill fences now, it will take about a year to effectively replenish the supply of live pigs in the market.