National pork prices hit a new high since 2008

Over the past four weeks, pig prices in the national pig market have risen continuously, with an average price of more than 18 yuan / kg, not only a new high for the year, but also a new high since 2008. Even in the off-season of consumption, there is no sign of "cooling". There is also the phenomenon of "robbing pigs" in many places in Shandong.

According to the city KuaiBao, Gao Guan, deputy secretary general of the China Meat Association, said that in the 13 months since May 2010, domestic pork prices have continued to rise, with the national average ex-factory price of white-striped pigs rising from more than 9 yuan / kg to the current 17.45 yuan / kg, surpassing the all-time high of 17.16 yuan / kg in 2008.

According to statistics, by the end of May, the national pork price had risen 43.5% compared with the same period last year. Wang Jimin, director of the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, believes that even if farmers increase their breeding, it will take about a year from the filling of sows to the corresponding commercial pigs. Judging from the national situation, the supply of live pigs is relatively tight in the second half of the year, pork prices will remain high, and pork prices in various places may continue to rise.

The China Securities News reported that due to the impact of the epidemic at the end of last year, the decline in supply caused a gap between supply and demand for live pigs, coupled with rising travel costs, making it difficult for pig prices to adjust in the short term. Analysts estimate that stubbornly high pork prices could be a new driver of inflation.

The report also quoted a pig farmer in Shandong as saying that he did not expect the market to be so good this year. "the price of live pigs has gone up several waves this year." He said that the Spring Festival is the first peak of pig prices, when the purchase price of hairy pigs was more than 14 yuan per kilogram, and then all the way down, maintaining 10-12 yuan per kilogram in April and May. According to common sense, summer is the off-season for pork consumption, but the price of live pigs has risen rapidly in recent months, hitting a new high in several years. "more than 40 pigs in the pen will soon be out of the pen, and pig vendors often come to inquire, saying that they will be given 18.6 yuan per kilogram. Now I'm in no hurry to sell. When I raise a fat pig for ten and a half days, I can make more money. "

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the number of live pigs in the country was 436 million in April, down 4.15% from a year earlier. The number of live pigs fell further to 434 million in May, 2 million less than in April. Since the beginning of this year, the stock of pigs has been showing a downward trend, with a cumulative decline of 4.68%.

Analysts pointed out that due to the influence of disease No. 5 at the end of last year, epidemic diarrhea and low temperature weather this spring, the litter birth rate of sows decreased, resulting in a decline in the stock of live pigs and fertile sows. According to the 6-month growth cycle of live pigs, this is the most tense time for pigs. The decline in supply has led to a sharp rise in pig prices in the off-season.

A slaughterhouse owner said that pork stocks had been significantly reduced due to high prices. "at present, the market price of frozen meat is only 24000 yuan / ton, but the cost of whole meat segmentation is already as high as 27000 yuan / ton, so it is obviously too risky to keep it in stock, so we have to reduce the amount of slaughter."

The report also said that soaring pork prices have led to a rapid rise in pig feed, which has risen from more than 2600 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to more than 3000 yuan per ton. According to the comprehensive calculation of the cost of feed, labor, vaccine, transportation and other links, the cost of raising a pig has exceeded 6.2 yuan / jin, compared with only about 5 yuan / jin in the past.

Analysts pointed out that in absolute terms, pig prices are approaching an all-time high, but feed costs have reached an all-time high before pig prices, and the rapid rise in pig prices must have cost-driven factors.

It is estimated that the pig-to-grain ratio, which measures the profits of pig farming, has reached 7.92, far exceeding the break-even point of 5.5. The higher the pig-to-grain ratio, the better the breeding profit, and vice versa. In December 2007, the pig-to-grain ratio reached a high of 8.78 Drex1, but later a large amount of money entered the pig market, resulting in an increase in supply, a decline in prices and a decline in the ratio until July 2010, when pig prices entered an upward cycle. Although there has been a slight seasonal correction in the ratio of pig food after the Spring Festival this year, the widening gap between supply and demand has led to a revival of its upward trend.

The rise in pig prices has been transmitted to the pork wholesale and retail market, and it is very difficult to see pork below 11 yuan per jin on the market. Compared with the same period last year, the wholesale price of pork in many places has increased by more than 40%. Take the Beijing market as an example, by the beginning of June, the wholesale price of white striped pig (fat) was 11.5 yuan / jin, and that of white striped pig (thin) was 12.2 yuan / jin.

The sharp rise in pig prices has raised concerns about inflation. In the statistics of CPI, food accounts for about 1/3 of the weight, as a major food of pork, especially an important observation index. Rising pork prices led to stubbornly high inflation between 2007 and 2008.