MySheen

The price of chemical fertilizer has gone up, but where are the pesticides?

Published: 2024-11-09 Author: mysheen
Last Updated: 2024/11/09, Event 1: according to some media reports, a person related to the Pesticide Association recently said that the deadline for issuing emission permits for the pesticide industry is in the last two months.

Event 1:

According to some media reports, recently, people related to the Pesticide Association said that the deadline for the pesticide industry to issue emission permits is within the last two months, after which law enforcement inspections will be carried out.

In the future, enterprises without certificates will be asked to stop production, and the pattern of the pesticide industry has entered a countdown before a round of major changes.

Event 2:

In the process of winter storage of chemical fertilizer this year, "rising" has become the word with the highest frequency.

At present, the winter storage in most areas is advancing in an orderly manner, and the rising prices of raw materials have gradually pushed up the price of finished fertilizer. According to the China Fertilizer Network, the mainstream ex-factory quotations for 45% of sulfur-based general series chemical fertilizer products nationwide have reached 2300-2450 yuan per ton, an increase of about 300 yuan over the same period last year.

Investment logic:

1. In accordance with the implementation plan for the permit system for controlling pollutant discharge issued by the General Office of the State Council in November 2016, full coverage of fixed pollution sources will be achieved step by step by industry, taking the lead in issuing pollution discharge permits to enterprises in thermal power and paper industries. 15 key industries and overcapacity industries will be completed in 2017, and the country will basically complete this work by 2020.

2. The prosperity of pesticides and fertilizers has always been in the same direction. Recently, the prices of chemical fertilizers have continued to be strong, and it is believed that the price increase will be transmitted to the field of pesticides.

Therefore, we believe that the supply side of pesticides will remain limited due to strict supervision of environmental protection, and the demand side will be relatively rigid and gradually recover, which will support the strong price of pesticides; at the same time, pesticide prices have rebounded moderately in the fourth quarter of last year, and the profit situation of relevant enterprises is expected to continue to improve since the fourth quarter of last year, and it is expected that there will be opportunities for valuation improvement in the whole industry.

Focus on:

Shalunda A, Hailer, Red Sun, Yangnong Chemical

 
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