Forecast of pig market supply at the end of this year and the first quarter of 2013

Recently, the number of live pigs slaughtered has decreased, and meat prices have shown signs of stabilizing, and pig prices have rebounded slightly. Industry insiders believe that although it has entered the peak consumption season, but due to the lack of rebound power, the future is not optimistic, the overall pig market is still weak and difficult to change.

From the perspective of market supply: at present, the stock of sows is still high, and it is expected that before February 2013, the total supply of live pigs will increase steadily, taking into account the role of market regulation, the growth rate of live pigs is relatively slow, after that, the supply of live pigs will gradually stabilize. From the perspective of market demand, this year, due to the continued deterioration of the financial crisis in Europe and the United States, coupled with the slowdown in domestic economic growth, it should have been the peak season for pork consumption after the Beginning of Winter, but pig prices have declined continuously. At present, with the approach of the depths of winter, the market should have taken a turn for the better, but now the price upward trend has not met expectations, indicating a lack of consumer power and a large supply of pork.

Comprehensive analysis, due to the current sufficient supply of pigs, pig stock and output has reached a peak, supply will not be cut off, pork prices are very difficult to rise; winter is the peak season of pork consumption, coupled with rising feeding costs, farmers' profits have shrunk, and prices are unlikely to continue to fall. In the case of excluding a large-scale epidemic, the pig market supply is still sufficient at the end of this year and the first quarter of 2013, and the national pig market as a whole is expected to maintain a stable operation.