Pig farmers sigh that pig prices are low: I have almost had a heart attack in recent years.

Pig price leads the dive.

"it's like riding a roller coaster. Pig farming has almost given me a heart attack in recent years." Wang Hu, a farmer in Luliang City, Shanxi Province, is described in this way.

Since the beginning of pig farming in 2007, Wang Hu has experienced many sharp rises and falls in pig prices. Pig prices soared in 2011, when he earned more than half a million yuan by raising pigs alone. Pig prices have been falling since the Spring Festival this year, and he has lost almost all his savings from raising pigs for many years.

There are many pig farmers like Wang Hu who have the same experience. the general reflection heard by the Economic Observer from Shandong, Shaanxi, Shanxi and other places is that the successive "diving" of domestic pig prices this year has made many farmers shout "can't afford to be hurt." In order to reduce losses, some retail farmers began to withdraw from the market, and many larger pig farmers also began to reduce their investment. "now the price of pig food has long fallen below the balance line. From piglets to fences, each pig has a loss of RMB 200 per kilogram." Feng Yonghui, chief consultant of China Pig early warning Network, said, "as a result, sow stocks in many provinces have slipped." Feng Yonghui judged that this round of pig prices will continue to fall around the National Day, and then look further ahead.

Apart from pig prices, if there are no special circumstances, it is expected that the prices of agricultural products such as grain prices, edible oil and vegetables, which are closely related to CPI, will not fluctuate significantly during the year.

A number of experts have a more consistent analysis of the overall stability of agricultural prices: since the end of last year, strict economy has been advocated all over the country, and public funds have been greatly reduced in eating, drinking and giving gifts, which has stimulated the transformation of all kinds of catering industry. hotels, restaurants and other major meat consumption units have significantly reduced demand for agricultural products, coupled with this year's bird flu incident and the floating of dead pigs in the upper reaches of the Huangpu River. Taken together, the price of agricultural products, mainly pork, has gone down.

Pig prices continue to be depressed

Pig prices in large and medium-sized cities across the country have fallen for eight consecutive weeks, and pig food prices have been below 6:1, the official break-even point for pig farming, according to a notice issued by the National Development and Reform Commission during the May Day period. Corresponding to the announcement of the National Development and Reform Commission, the results released by the Ministry of Agriculture in the same period also showed that the average price of piglets in 480 rural markets across the country was also falling, 23% lower than the same period last year.

The feelings of farmers are more real than the official figures. A farmer surnamed Sun in Sunzu Township, Yinan County, Shandong Province, raised more than 200 pigs. he calculated that to fatten a pig of 110kg, the feed cost was 4 × 1.4x230 yuan = 1232 yuan. 40 yuan for epidemic prevention, 15 yuan for water and electricity, 86 yuan for labor, and 14 yuan for interest, totaling 1477 yuan, but now the price of live pigs is less than 12 yuan per kilogram, and now each pig has to lose a lot of money.

Also in Shandong, a number of pig farmers in Sishui County and Gaoqing County of the province said that due to the continuous "diving" of pig prices after the Spring Festival, both farmers and farms are now raising pigs at a loss, even for self-breeding pigs, from piglets to fences, each pig has to lose more than 200 yuan.

The Economic Observer also heard from Shandong, Shaanxi, Shanxi and other places that at present, credit loans and special breeding funds tend to support large farmers, while bulk farmers and small-scale households generally find it difficult to get loans smoothly. In general, farmers' breeding start-up funds can only borrow high interest funds from the private sector, resulting in a heavy burden on production.

As to whether the current round of pig price decline will continue, Zheng Fengtian, deputy dean (Caiyuan) of the School of Agriculture and Rural Development at Renmin University of China, said, "the decline in pork prices has not yet reached the bottom. The oversupply in the pig market is expected to continue for several months."

Feng Yonghui, who has long been concerned about the pig farming industry, told the Economic Observer that the National Development and Reform Commission may launch a new round of frozen pork collection and storage work in the near future, but he also said that according to past precedents, the state collects and stores more than 100,000 tons of pork, while China's annual pork consumption is 50 million tons, and official pork policy collection and storage can hardly play a role in boosting pig prices in the market.

In fact, due to the continuous "diving" of pig prices after the Spring Festival, the National Development and Reform Commission launched a round of collection and storage of frozen pork on April 7, and the reserve price was determined according to the principle of "slightly higher than the market price." the scope is implemented at the same time in more than 20 provinces across the country, but from the current situation, the effect of the policy does not play much of a role.

Grain prices have risen slightly

Besides the pig price, among the agricultural products, the grain price is most closely related to CPI.

According to the analysis of agricultural experts such as Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and Jiao Shanwei, a senior analyst at China Grain Network, if there are no major agricultural natural disasters this year, the prices of the three staple grains of wheat, corn and rice will basically remain stable. On the one hand, the grain harvest has been maintained for nine consecutive years, and the national stock is relatively abundant. On the other hand, under the influence of the atmosphere of strict economy advocated by the central government, the demand for food in the entire catering industry and agricultural products processing industry has also been reduced.

From a comprehensive point of view, the prices of edible oil and imported soybeans will not rise significantly in the second half of the year. A more specific analysis is that in March and April this year, there were bumper harvests of soybeans in Brazil, Argentina, and other South American countries, and the prices of China's imported soybeans also fell sharply, which extended. Several major domestic edible oil producers have also begun to cut prices recently. At present, it has been made public that Jinlongyu, a brand of Yihai Kerry Group, has reduced the prices of blending oil and soybean oil, reducing soybean oil by 15% and blending oil by 8%. The group's flag reduction and oil, soybean oil prices will also be reduced nationwide, a reduction of about 16%.