Chicken-raising industry may bottom out in the third quarter

Recently, H7N9 avian influenza has caused the chicken industry to be depressed and bleak. All breeding enterprises and farmers are losing money. Some large-scale enterprises stick to their daily losses and silently wait for the day when the rain will clear up; there are also some small farms and farmers who think they will rebound soon. Now they buy chicken seedlings and prepare to make a big profit in three months.

Some people in the industry said that no one can judge when this storm can pass, but can stick to the last, will certainly be able to earn back the previous losses, this is the strange law of reincarnation of breeding industry.

market status

Farming industry encounters cold

A few days ago, the Ministry of Agriculture reported that the National Avian Influenza Reference Laboratory conducted a recheck test on a suspected positive sample of H7 subtype avian influenza virus nucleic acid from a chicken in Dongcheng Sanniao Wholesale Market, Dongguan city, Guangdong Province, and was diagnosed as positive. This news will undoubtedly make the chicken industry even worse. For more than a month, affected by H7N9, the sales volume of live chickens has dropped sharply. Wenshi Group, a leading enterprise in Guangdong breeding industry, has lost about 30 million yuan every day since last month, while other small enterprises are struggling on the edge of life and death.

Ou Xianhua, chairman of Guangdong Agricultural Road Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Science and Technology Co., Ltd., told reporters that at present, the stock of Guangdong has dropped to 1/3 of the original, and sales are almost zero. It is understood that Wen's and other large-scale breeding enterprises, live chickens will be transported to the third and fourth line towns, rural market sales, very high-quality 120 days slow chicken normal sale 30 yuan/, in rural loss sale 15 yuan/, because rural people are not afraid of H7N9. At present, the delivery price of fast chicken has plummeted to 1.7 yuan ~1.8 yuan/catty, and the delivery price of slow chicken is 4 yuan ~5 yuan/catty. Before the occurrence of H7N9, the delivery price of fast chicken was 5 yuan/catty, and the delivery price of slow chicken was 8 yuan ~10 yuan/catty. Ou Xianhua said, Don't say loss sale, Even humanitarian destruction also want to do, He said, For example, A chicken a day eat 0.3 yuan feed, Not counting labor and water and electricity costs, A chicken a month will lose 9 yuan, Guangdong farmers are generally more than ten thousand breeding capacity, A month loss of 90,000 yuan, General farmers can not bear.

Spread to the upstream feed industry

Chicken can not be sold out, feed naturally can not be sold out, the upstream feed industry is therefore greatly affected, a Guangdong feed enterprise responsible person told reporters, more than a month, chicken feed sales fell by 50%, but also prompted the feed raw material prices have been at a high level slightly fall, at present corn 2420 yuan/ton, soybean meal 3850 yuan/ton, all kinds of feed raw materials average 2.5% fall. Against this backdrop of low demand and expectations, feed prices also fell twice, by about 3%.

Consumers take a detour when they see chickens

Every day to Guangzhou Yuancun market to buy vegetables Zhang aunt told reporters, Now to the vegetable market to buy vegetables, See live chicken stall mouth, Bypass to hide far away. She was very puzzled. Although business was bleak, the price of live chicken stalls in the market was still about the same as usual. There was no big price reduction."If it sells for one yuan per catty, I guess there will be a lot of people buying it."

In this regard, Ou Xianhua said, Chicken stall mouth originally sold 10 a day, Now sell 1, For it and sell a yuan a catty no difference, And now people dare not approach, Even if the owner price reduction to 0.1 yuan a catty, Consumers dare not buy.

enterprises to cope with

Companies with scale are sticking to it

Over the past ten years, the breeding industry has experienced various hardships: H1N1, H5N1, H9N2, SARS, H7N9, past experience tells us, in the sales volume plummeted, every household reduced stock at the same time, but also the starting point of the next opportunity, as long as we can bite teeth to the end, will usher in a good day of short supply, prices all the way up.

It is understood that at present, as long as there is a certain scale of breeding enterprises are sticking to, in order to be able to defend to the last moment, will lose to earn back. Ou Xianhua, a small and medium-sized enterprise, said that his first chicken in northern Guangdong had been reduced by half. Fortunately, there were newborn eggs and farm eggs to supplement them, which could earn back half of the feed money and was also sticking to it.

Wen related personage said to reporters, In response to this kind of event, The group has more experience, Usually will adopt seedling reduction, Price reduction sales, Efforts to open up the township market, Slaughter diversion, Into chilled storage and other ways to reduce losses. At the same time, in line with the work requirements of the government, we will do a good job in internal production and operation, epidemic prevention and disinfection, etc.

At present, the price of chicken seedlings has dropped sharply, and some small farmers have begun to buy chicken seedlings, expecting the market to recover in three months, and the opportunity to meet demand will make a lot of money. Ou Xianhua obviously did not agree. He believed that the farmers who had invested in the seedlings could not wait for a big profit."No one can accurately predict which day they will lose money." Those farmers who had invested in the seedlings would soon be sacrificed.

industry predicts

The trough will last for more than half a year

Wen's related personage thinks, The second quarter of this year is definitely not good, The third quarter is not expected to be optimistic, Because the follow-up impact of the storm will last for a long time. At present, some enterprises with a certain financial strength, gambling aftermarket rebound, in fact, there is a lot of risk, the current market situation, at least half a year to recover.

Ou Xianhua, chairman of Guangdong Agricultural Road Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Science and Technology Co., Ltd., said in an interview with reporters that if there is no human infection in Guangdong, it is optimistic that more than two months of storm will pass, but if there is human infection, half a year or even a year will not be better.

No.1 native chicken related responsible person to reporters said, This time the storm is expected to June after, No.1 native chicken is brand management, Will not because of this storm on the upstream strength, No.1 native chicken or to open shop progress mainly, The company has planned according to this year's plan breeding scale, How much to raise sell how much.

market trend

The market develops towards selling naked chickens

Chen Sheng, founder of Tiandi No.1 vinegar beverage, encountered H7N9 storm soon after listing. Chen Sheng said that the fluctuation of the market had little impact on No.1 native chicken. At present, the sales of No.1 native chicken increased compared with before. After Guangzhou Dongshan market closed live poultry sales, the sales of No.1 native chicken increased by 20%~30%. "In fact, the difference between hairy chickens and naked chickens is that because hairy chickens are live birds, they sometimes carry viruses and spread everywhere. The naked chicken is safer than live poultry after being slaughtered and quarantined in the national unified slaughterhouse, and the virus disappears within two minutes when the meat reaches 100 degrees Celsius during cooking." At present, countries like Europe and America basically sell naked chickens and do not allow live poultry to be sold. Wen's group related personage pointed out, South China, East China, Central China consumption habits after this storm, Will gradually develop to light chicken. Source Information Times