Invest in agriculture and don't believe in the myth of sudden wealth.

Recently, there are many and popular posts on "Agriculture is the most profitable industry in the next 20 years" and "to invest in agriculture is to invest in the future" in Wechat moments. James Rogers, who is known as the world-class investment master, was pinched to the tail at a certain forum and changed hands several times, which was interpreted into multiple versions and bombed on the Internet in turn. The author who has been engaged in the work of agriculture, rural areas and farmers for many years and the people around him are quite happy, as if he has invested in a potential stock and is about to usher in a reshuffle of his life and career.

On the face of it, it seems to be true. For a long time, all the industries and industries linked to the word "agriculture" have always been at the bottom of the industrial chain, at least in terms of economic returns. Today, this traditional impression and positioning is indeed undergoing drastic changes. The huge support and driving force produced by the publication of 12 central documents on agriculture, rural areas and farmers in a row, people pay more and more attention to the derivative opportunities for food safety, and the by-products of industrial civilization stimulate the pastoral homesickness of urban people. as well as the value-added potential of agricultural land drawn by land system reform, the connotation of agriculture is constantly enriching and expanding as never before, and people realize not only the value of agriculture, but also its realization ability.

Especially in the new normal economy, traditional industries are gradually in the doldrums, and a lot of investors do not know what to do with money. At this time, the halo of agriculture is even more brilliant, more and more voices are guiding them-if you have missed Chinese real estate ten years ago, then you must not miss today's agriculture! In the next 20 years, the most profitable industry is not to do real estate, but to be farmers!

However, if you really believe that the myth of a Cambridge graduate devoted to agriculture can be infinitely replicated, and that the business leaders who invest in agriculture value the profitability of agriculture, if you really think that agriculture, which has been seduced by the temptation of land, can still be so attractive, it is really taken to the ditch.

Everyone who has studied economics knows that agriculture has typical positive externalities. In popular terms, it has created great benefits and contributions to society, but the income of people engaged in this industry is very small. A basic common sense is that the characteristics of agriculture determine that it will always face huge natural risks and market risks. Although this risk will be continuously reduced with the innovation of science and technology and the use of economic tools brought about by social progress, its fundamental attribute can not be changed. In addition, it is difficult to control the long-term operating costs of the industrial chain, the lack of quick success and quick profit mentality under long-term planning, and the low threshold for market access leads to product homogenization, which further aggravates this risk.

And if you are a person who knows nothing about agriculture and is simply "tricked" by the master's words to rush in on trade, it is more likely that Yao Ming will come in and Pan Changjiang will go out. People say that people who travel apart like mountains, and those who do not know anything about agriculture engage in agriculture, perhaps across the Himalayas.

More importantly, agriculture is a public good, or quasi-public good. Some people have made a very vivid analogy, saying that agriculture is a "public job" and industry and commerce are "private work", meaning that industry and commerce is a business that can make money, and agriculture is not an industry on which producers can make a fortune. In particular, the prices of some staple agricultural products related to the national economy and people's livelihood are always subject to the ceiling of various factors. A price increase? Profiteering? The common people can't stand it, the government disagrees, and the more important the basic industries are, the more they have to make sacrifices in terms of profits. This is no exception at all times, at home and abroad.

So how can we attract capital, science and technology, and talents to join in the development of modern agriculture and realize agricultural modernization? How can we talk about making agriculture a promising industry and farmers a decent profession?

Pessimism is not necessary. The words of the investment master are not unreasonable. As we have analyzed before, it is indeed the best time to develop modern agriculture, and a lot of opportunities are waiting for you. However, there are several points that must be emphasized:

First of all, the characteristics of agriculture determine that its development is always inseparable from the support of the government, and it is impossible to operate completely in accordance with the business model. Under the new economic normal, the government's finances are tight, but there can be no less money invested in agriculture. Now is the best time, and this opportunity can't be missed.

Second, investment farmers should have a healthy mentality, be prepared to invest for a long time, and be able to withstand loneliness. Agriculture is the basis of survival and an eternal sunrise industry, but it only has a stable and reasonable return and the myth of sudden wealth, which is not suitable for agriculture.

Third, we should not think about the peasants, especially their land. Agriculture is not real estate, and it can never be the next real estate. Industrial and commercial capital to do agriculture, profits in technology, management and brand, the path should not go astray. Shi Wei