Can the pig market continue to rise, as in March, to warm the hearts of pig farmers?

It is March in Yangchun, when all things recover and the grass grows and warblers fly, and all things save up energy and wait for their release in the spring. We have visually felt the face of the spring girl, touch also experienced the warmth of the spring girl, this is the atmosphere of our life, our work, we live in the pig industry is a kind of picture?

It seems that the pig industry is also gracious, accepted the warmth of the spring girl, opened a warm heart activity. Pig prices began to decline after the Spring Festival, leaving pig farmers in the relentless cold of winter. As the temperature rebounded, pig prices began to fluctuate steadily and rise from mid-March in Yangchun. This spring, girls are no longer shy and come to the world early. This year, the pig market drove away the "cold spring" of previous years and began to be "different" and "unique".

Then, at this time, pig farmers are very confused: spring girls can firmly send warmth, can the pig market?

This problem is not only related to pig farmers, the feed industry, slaughtering enterprises, food factories, planting industry are very concerned, the position of the pig industry can be imagined. So how on earth will the pig market go? This article will analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the pig market at present and in the later stage.

The warm factors of the pig market

I. intensity of terminal pork consumption

If we talk about the positive factors of the pig market, we should first talk about the terminal pork consumption, one of the main factors that determine the pig price. In the past, the amount of meat stored by residents did not bottom out until April and May of the following year, but the amount of meat reserves before the Spring Festival in 2015 decreased significantly compared with the same period last year. Terminal demand began to show signs of recovery in March, and reserves did not last that long a year ago. The speed of recovery of terminal consumption is relatively fast, which is a big positive factor for the pig market.

Ching Ming Festival and International Labour Day will be welcomed soon.

It is well known that festivals can promote the consumption of meat. There are still ten days to go before Ching Ming Festival, and International Labour Day is also coming on May Day. Double-section promotion of meat consumption will support pig prices to a certain extent.

III. Decline in the supply of live pigs

The pig market has experienced more than a year of elimination, the stock of breeding sows continues to decline, and is still in the process of elimination. Ten years ago, farmers concentrated on the fence, and the supply of live pigs in the market was out of stock. And pig prices did not perform well in the first half of previous years, and most pig farmers do not plan to go out at this time. As a result, the supply of pigs is in short supply.

The factor that the pig market is still difficult to withstand the "spring cold"

I. there has been a marked decline in terminal consumption

The decline in terminal consumption has been evident since the second half of 2014, and it still afflicts the pig market and suppresses the rise in pig prices.

This is especially reflected in the strength of residents' pork reserves before the year ago. It would be nice for southern residents to produce half as much bacon as in previous years, and residents in quite some areas reported that the production of bacon was less than 3/10 of that in previous years. The decline in this number, and the decline is so significant, has been enough to constrain pig prices.

The decline in terminal consumption is mainly reflected in the decline in the daily consumption of pork. With the improvement of residents' living standards, meat consumption is gradually transferred to other meat, reducing pork consumption. On the other hand, the successive occurrence of food safety problems such as "clenbuterol" and "drifting pig" in recent years have greatly weakened residents' confidence in pork consumption. Thirdly, modern people pay more and more attention to health preservation. The adjustment of diet structure reduces the consumption of meat and increases the consumption of vegetables and fruits.

Second, the disadvantages of double sections.

For the pig market, the festival is a "double-edged sword", which is also the consensus of pig farmers in recent years. During the festival, the increase in pork consumption is also becoming a good time for pig farmers to sell pigs, but this mentality has prompted farmers to concentrate on the fence at this time, resulting in the supply of pigs exceeding demand, and the painful scene of pig prices falling instead of rising has been staged several times.

The current shortage of pig supply is also related to the psychology of farmers, not only caused by the shortage of pigs. The sharp rise in pig prices around May Day in 2014 has given farmers a psychological hint that many farmers are betting on pig prices around May Day this year. On the basis of the fact that the supply of pigs is really a little tight and the slaughtering weight is reduced, hurdling has become an option. If pig prices rise, this pressure fence is bound to reduce the rising rate of pig prices in the future, and if it goes down, it will increase the rate of decline.

The multi-factor game in the pig market continues. At present, the supply of live pigs is slightly better, but whether the supply of live pigs can be dominated in the later period is really a matter of concern. Various factors in the pig market have a comprehensive effect on pig prices, and the gap between the pros and cons is actually very small, and it is impossible for any side to be significantly higher than the other. After all, the decline in terminal consumer demand is too large. In the future, where the supply of live pigs is less and less, it can only be said that pig prices as a whole are fluctuating and rising, and the situation of decline is still indispensable. The pig market in 2015 is a warm and sunny situation, and it will be difficult to see the heat in the middle of summer.