Forecast of the Market trend of China's harvesting Machinery in 2016

The background of the harvester market in 2016

First, the deep loosening of the land may increase the demand for harvesting machinery operations. In 2015, the state put forward the rigid index of "subsoiling operation on 200 million mu of arable land". People who understand the deep loosening operation all know that after the deep loosening of the cultivated land, the water storage capacity of the soil will increase to a certain extent, and then take certain protective measures, if it is not an extremely rare drought or flood disaster, in the next year or two, the moisture and nutrients of the soil will be improved to a certain extent, and the harvest prospect of crops will be good. Therefore, if there is not too much natural disaster, China's grain, oil and other crops should have a bumper harvest in 2016, and the demand for harvesting machinery will also increase to a certain extent.

Second, the upgrading of "country two" and "country three" has become an unstable factor in the harvest machinery market. Another focus of the agricultural machinery industry in 2015 is the upgrading of agricultural machinery emission standards to "State III", and "State II" machines will no longer enjoy national subsidies for the purchase of agricultural machinery from April 1, 2016. In China's current agricultural machinery market environment, can not enjoy state subsidies, almost means that products will not enter the procurement line of sight of most ordinary farmers. It is understood that when the National Agricultural Machinery Exhibition was held at the end of October 2015, even some manufacturers that had launched the complete set of "State 3" machines, there were still many manufacturers that had not carried out running-in of the new machines, or even had not carried out corresponding transformation of the production line, and the whole machines supporting "State 3" could not be mass-produced yet. As a result, most people in the industry are "worried" about whether the stability of agricultural machinery products can meet the standards in 2016. As one of the representatives of agricultural machinery products, harvesting machinery certainly can not escape people's doubts about it.

Third, the "moderate scale operation" of land circulation promotes the development of harvesting machinery. With the accelerating process of urbanization, a large number of rural young and middle-aged labor force flow to the city, the "older generation" farmers will gradually fade out of farmland due to age, physical strength and other factors, and some farmland begins to be idle. Therefore, the state vigorously supports the development of farmers' cooperative organizations, which transfer the idle farmland originally scattered in various peasant households together to carry out "appropriate scale operation". Concentrated large plots of farmland will be more suitable for mechanized production, virtually promoting the development of harvesting machinery.

The market competition of harvesting machinery may be more fierce.

First, "cross-area operation" has become a "barometer" of competition in the harvest machinery market. Many harvesters use the machine as a tool to make money, driving a trailer and dragging the harvester around the main grain producing areas during the harvest season. this is the only unique "wheat guest", "rice guest", "corn guest"-cross-district operation "army". However, according to the investigation and analysis of Agricultural Machinery 360 Network, the cross-district operation in China in the past two years shows the following two characteristics: first, the cross-district operation team is "downsizing"; second, the cross-district operation service radius is "shortened". On the surface, it is due to the inevitable result of the decrease in the income of agricultural machinery operators in the process of cross-district operation. on the other hand, it also shows that the holding capacity of China's harvest machinery market has increased significantly, which foresees that the competition in the harvest machinery market in 2016 will be more fierce.

Second, the "Golden decade" harvest machinery industry pain point-poor stability. After the "Golden decade" of China's agricultural machinery industry, the harvester purchased by farmers in many places can already serve the surrounding towns and cities, so the number of agricultural machinists still working across provinces has gradually decreased. It is inevitable that the quality of many harvesters during the "Golden decade" is not satisfactory, and their service life is even less flattering. It is understood that part of the harvester sold in the form of second-hand agricultural machinery in recent years is due to frequent failures during operation, which makes it very difficult for the machine owner to bear it, so he has no choice but to "bear the pain" and transfer the machine just before the machine has been repaired and before it has been broken down or scrapped. In a short period of time, the machine that cannot allow the harvester to make money will certainly not have a good reputation. Once the range of "bad reviews" reaches a certain extent, it will certainly affect the sales of all agricultural machinery products of the brand, and it will be doomed to be eliminated.

Third, high-standard farmland construction provides "opportunities to show their talents" for harvesting machinery. Before the land transfer has reached a considerable degree, the farmland has not yet reached the "appropriate scale", and the large harvester may not be very suitable for the whole country, which is the opportunity for the existing small and medium-sized harvester to give full play to its ability. However, in the past year or two, many provinces have begun to advocate the construction of high-standard farmland. For example, in Anhui Province, high-standard farmland will account for 70% of the cultivated land in five years' time, and the infrastructure that has been concentrated into large plots of farmland will be further improved. If there are no mature harvester products suitable for this situation to the market, it will undoubtedly be shuffled out.

Research and development direction of harvester manufacturers in 2016

From a market point of view, in 2015, China issued two documents that had an important impact on the agricultural machinery industry, one of which was the "opinions on promoting the whole process of mechanization in the production of major crops". Comparing the blueprint of the document planning with the current situation of agricultural mechanization, we can see that there is still a lot of room for development in the mechanization harvest stage of many major crops. At the same time, there are many other crops other than major crops, and the development prospect of mechanized harvest is also very huge, but for the time being, it has not attracted the attention of "leading" agricultural machinery enterprises. these subdivided areas may become an important battlefield of differential competition.

From a technical point of view, the second document that has an important impact on the agricultural machinery industry is "made in China 2025" technology roadmap in the field of agricultural equipment. This technology roadmap puts forward clear requirements for harvesting machinery:

Goal: by 2020, the average fault-free time of combine will be increased to 60 hours; by 2025, the intelligent harvester will be put into use, and the average fault-free time of combine will reach 100 hours.

Product performance: large grain combine harvester with feeding capacity of 10 kg / s and above, rice combine harvester with feeding capacity of 8 kg / s and above, and new corn grain harvester, cotton picker, sugarcane harvester, rape harvester and forage harvester. Hydrostatic drive, with navigation and positioning, fault diagnosis, real-time acquisition of main parameters and automatic monitoring functions.

Key parts

1. Agricultural diesel engine: off-road country Ⅳ emission, torque reserve more than 35%, power output interface 3 or more, noise sound power level not higher than 114dB; electronic control system, post-processing system domestic self-supporting.

two。 The steering drive axle is equipped with a combine harvester with a feeding capacity of 10 kg / s and above.

3. Measurement and control sensors for harvester feed, cleaning and entrainment loss, cutting table height, drum speed, yield flow and grain moisture, etc.

4. Combine navigation and positioning, object tracking device, positioning accuracy of not less than centimeter level

Technology:

1. Reliability technology of agricultural machinery: break through the reliability test method, inspection and control technology of key products of combine harvester, and realize the application of active reliability design technology in service environment.

two。 Agricultural machinery sensing and control technology: break through animal behavior and environment, agricultural machinery and its operating conditions of sensing, monitoring and control and data management technology, to achieve mechanization, automation, information, intelligent integration and development.

Application demonstration project: integrate the technologies of digital design, manufacturing process planning and manufacturing process control of agricultural machinery, develop the chassis and threshing and cleaning key assembly system of combine harvester, and demonstrate the application in combine harvester enterprises.

Conclusion: the state has laid out the development direction of the agricultural machinery industry, agricultural machinery production enterprises pay close attention to the current production and manufacturing, channel stock at the same time, along the direction set by the state, research and development of new products to meet the future demand, in order to enable enterprises to "go steadily, go far".