Pig industry: August 2015 to the end of 2016 will be the "best time"

Feng Yonghui believes that if 2013 and 2014 are the "worst times" in the history of the pig market, then the period from August 2015 to the end of 2016 is expected to be the "best times".

The average profit of 150 yuan per head is the dividing line between working or raising pigs.

The average profit per head is about 50 yuan as the opportunity cost dividing line of the pig raising industry. according to the environmental equipment of the family pig farm, it is not difficult for the average young labor force to produce 500 heads per year, with an average profit of 150 yuan per head, and the annual net income of 72000 yuan is basically the same as that of migrant workers. Therefore, the average profit of 150 yuan per head can basically be used as the cost dividing line between pig farmers choosing to go out to work and raising pigs at home.

The profit of 300-500 yuan per head is the best profit.

The profit level of 300-500 yuan per head is twice as high as the equilibrium profit level, but it is still far from the all-time high, so the corresponding pork price is slightly high for consumers, but it is still acceptable. Moreover, the pig price corresponding to such profits will not touch the warning line of policy regulation and control, at the same time, although such profits are higher than ordinary industries for out-of-town capital, however, because of the industry characteristics such as higher threshold, high investment, high epidemic risk and high market risk, it is basically not attractive enough. For practitioners in the existing industry, the ultra-long losses in the past have greatly damaged their vitality, so a profit of 300-500 yuan per head can be called the best profit state of the pig industry.

This kind of profit lasts for at least a year before it is possible to restart the supplementary column. Now is the most ideal state of the pig market, this ideal state will be maintained for 1.5 years. The reason why the 2015 supplementary fence is lower than expected is that the pig farm was damaged in 2014 and the pig industry was damaged. Why did the loss take so long from 2013 to 2014? because the proportion of scale of the entire industry has increased significantly, and the ability of the pig industry to resist risks is improving, the rate of elimination of excess capacity is very slow. According to the law of macroeconomic development, as long as urbanization requires migrant workers and migrant workers do not return home, the process of scale will be further accelerated. The higher the degree of scale, the slower the elimination of excess capacity and the longer the loss lasts. From this point of view, once sow fencing is launched in 2018, the loss in 2019 may be even worse than in 2014! Also take into account that with the expiration of the WTO protection period, more and more imported pork will come to China, when the pressure on the domestic pig industry can be imagined.

3 seize the opportunity to improve productivity by the end of 2016

If the pig market is maintained at 7.5-8.5 yuan per jin in 2016 and the per capita profit is maintained at 300-500 yuan, then, starting from August 2015, the pig market is expected to remain in this state until the end of 2016 for nearly a year and a half. We should make good use of this year and a half to improve the productivity of pig farms, such as live litter size, in order to meet the resumption of fences a year and a half later. If this opportunity is not grasped, what is waiting for everyone? Is to be eliminated. Here caused a lot of pig farmers resonate, applause.