Analysis on the trend of seedling price in 2016

Due to the emphasis on greening, there are more and more greening projects, and seedling prices have soared, but there has been a downward trend in the past two years. Many people in the industry believe that seedling prices have entered a trough. So what will be the direction of prices in 2016?

Take Robinia pseudoacacia as an example. The unit price of 4 cm Robinia pseudoacacia reached 65 yuan in the spring of 2013, 55-60 yuan in spring 2014, but only 45-50 yuan in spring 2015. Now the price of Robinia pseudoacacia with the same specification has fluctuated greatly.

Such as Pinus elliottii, the unit price of good seedlings with a price of 2 meters in 2012 is 600-800 yuan and that of 3 meters is 1200-1500 yuan, but now it is only half of the price at that time.

Due to the influence of high seedling prices and the ease of land flow transformation in rural areas, many large households have contracted land to cultivate seedlings. Through two or three years of careful management, a large number of small and medium-sized seedlings have been stored in nurseries. Coupled with the continuous increase in land contract fees and the increase in labor costs, many small nursery households are overburdened. Therefore, we believe that the following changes will take place in the seedling market in 2016:

First, grafted seedlings: the price will not rise in the near future, it is still possible to be at a low price.

Seedlings grafted with small rootstocks, such as red leaf plum, blue peach, cherry blossom, etc. in recent years, because the rootstock is easy to reproduce, the grafting technology is mature, and the grafting speed is fast, so the stock of the nursery is also relatively large, and it needs to be planted again after two or three years. Therefore, the price will not rise in the near future, and it is still possible to be at a low price. However, the price of some tree species with high requirements for rootstocks and slow grafting speed may still be on the high side, such as Robinia pseudoacacia, due to the high price of small and medium-sized Robinia pseudoacacia in previous years. There are very few medium-sized rootstocks, so we don't think the price will go down too much at least.

Second, evergreen green seedlings: prices are unlikely to rebound in the near future.

Due to the rapid reproduction in Jiangsu, Henan and other places, coupled with the good prices in previous years, the domestic planting volume is very large, and the price is 50% of that in previous years, but it is still difficult to sell, and prices will not rebound in the near future.

Third, conventionally cultivated seedlings: the price of seedlings will hover at a low price level.

Such as: Robinia pseudoacacia, Fatong, white wax, Koeluan, willow and other small and medium-sized seedlings that are easy to breed have a large stock, and the seedling price will hover at a low price level in 2016 and for a period of time later. However, large-size seedlings can cater to the minds of greening owners, that is, the immediate effect of planting, so the price will be maintained at the original level.

Fourth, some tree species are still developing.

Due to the low seedling price, low breeding cost and simple technology in the past few years, there has been a phenomenon of seedling breakage, such as Platycladus orientalis can raise some seedlings properly.

In short, seedling prices are at a low ebb of fluctuation. Although the central government emphasizes speeding up ecological construction, the information is now smooth and the transportation speed is very fast. Although there may be contradictions between supply and demand of green seedlings in some areas, the overall pattern will not change much. It is expected that seedling prices will have a low ebb in the future.