The trend of domestic corn in the future is not optimistic

At present, the trend of the domestic corn market is slightly differentiated. On the one hand, under the influence of snowy weather, farmers' sales and policy acquisitions and other factors, the trend of corn prices in Northeast China is stable and fluctuates slightly. On the other hand, the arrival of goods has shrunk, and in order to meet the needs of production, the purchase prices of corn processing enterprises in North China have rebounded slightly. The wait-and-see mood of north-south port traders is strong, coupled with sufficient inventory, corn prices are stable and weak. Although the number of temporary storage acquisitions in Northeast China is rising, and grass-roots farmers are still reluctant to sell, the peak of grain sales before the festival is coming, and the risk that the weather will affect the quality of corn in the later stage still exists. in addition, there has been market news recently that a large number of state reserves of old grain will enter the market in January, and the possibility of targeted sales policy will not be ruled out at the same time. Therefore, the author believes that the trend of the domestic corn market in the future is not optimistic.

The overall price of corn market in Northeast China is stable.

Recently, snowfall, farmers' hesitation to sell and policy acquisitions have become the main factors affecting the trend of the northeast corn market. On the one hand, since December, there has been more rain and snow in most parts of Northeast China, and the market purchase and sales activities have been affected for a time. On the other hand, the current corn market price in Northeast China is significantly lower than that in the same period last year, and some farmers are reluctant to sell again. In addition, temporary corn acquisitions have rebounded to a higher level, supporting corn prices. Up to now, the entry price of first-class corn of Harbin feed enterprises in Heilongjiang Province is 1990 yuan / ton, that of deep processing enterprises is 1790 yuan / ton, that of feed enterprises in Changchun area of Jilin Province is 2040 yuan / ton, and that of deep processing enterprises is 1960 yuan / ton. The entry price of feed enterprises in Shenyang, Liaoning Province is 2040 yuan / ton, and that of deep processing enterprises is 1980 yuan / ton, which are basically the same as those on weekends. Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces still have a wide range of snow, farmers' grain sales and logistics will be affected to a certain extent, temporarily supporting prices. At the same time, the Spring Festival falls in early February, and the coming month will be the peak of grain sales before the festival, and there will also be pressure on grain prices. In the future, we will focus on the game between the progress of temporary storage and the rhythm of grain sales by farmers.

Corn prices in North China are rising steadily.

At present, the overall sales of grass-roots grain in North China is slower than that in the same period, and the abundant surplus grain continues to rebound in grain prices, but the moisture content of most grass-roots corn is still on the high side, and the purchase price of local deep processing plants has increased slightly. Up to now, 14.5% moisture third-grade corn from deep processing enterprises in Weifang, Shandong Province, costs 1900-1960 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as last weekend, with individual enterprises rising 10-20 yuan / ton. Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, 1740-1760 yuan / ton, basically the same as last weekend. With the gradual dispersion of the Huanghuai haze in North China from December 15, the weather forecast shows that the weather in the producing area is fine during the week, and it is expected that the current mentality of farmers' cherishing sales may be disturbed by the amount of dry grain and the continuous price adjustment of enterprises, especially the impact of the increment of Hebei producing area on grain prices in the surrounding areas, the east and the south. At the same time, before the Spring Festival, the two main factors affecting the corn market in North China are that farmers will accelerate grain sales and grain enterprises will increase inventory. December and January are the peak periods for grain sales by farmers in North China, while the current corn inventory in grain enterprises is generally low, which is less than 10 days of processing consumption and will be replenished to 30 days of processing consumption by the end of January. Therefore, the corn market in North China in the next one and a half months will show an increase in supply and demand, and prices will depend on the pace of increase in both supply and demand.

The price of corn in the north and south ports is stable and weak.

Since mid-December, corn prices in north and south ports have been stable and weak. On the one hand, the acquisition of corn stored in Northeast China supports the price of corn in the northern port, but the quantity of shipments in Guangdong port is not good and the purchasing willingness of enterprises is not strong. On the other hand, the inventory of Yuqian in Guangdong port is abundant, and the price advantage of sorghum barley is obvious. So far, the mainstream price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2035 yuan / ton, which is the same as last weekend; 15% moisture in Guangdong port is about 2170 yuan / ton, which is the same as that at the weekend; and the arrival price of corn in North China is 2140-2150 yuan / ton, down 5-10 yuan / ton from the weekend.

The progress of temporary storage in Northeast China has risen again.

According to statistics from the State Grain Administration, as of December 10, 2015, a total of 31.9 million tons of corn had been temporarily collected and stored, including 19.22 million tons in Heilongjiang, 6.85 million tons in Jilin, 680000 tons in Liaoning and 5.14 million tons in Inner Mongolia. The weekly storage volume from December 5 to 10 was 5.2 million tons, which was significantly higher than the 3.22 million tons in the previous week, and the impending storage progress rebounded to a higher level. It is also understood that the corn purchase volume of feed enterprises and corn processing enterprises in Jilin region has significantly increased from the lows of the past few days, reaching or close to the normal purchase volume in the previous period. Some processing enterprises reported that the purchase volume slightly exceeded the processing volume, and the decline of corn inventory was curbed. At present, the corn inventory of most corn deep processing enterprises in Jilin area is below the processing amount of 7 days.

Attention is paid to the quality and safety of corn in Northeast China.

This week, Jilin Province issued an emergency notice on doing a good job in safe grain storage in abnormal weather, confirming our previous concerns about the post-harvest quality of corn in Northeast China this warm winter. Admittedly, the Jilin provincial government circular put forward six suggestions, including strengthening the importance of safe grain storage and strengthening farmers' grain sales services. Similar to Heilongjiang in 2013 and Jilin in 2014, snowfall occurred again in northeast corn producing areas this year, accompanied by higher temperatures than the same period last year, so that the local "lying grain" corn faces the risk of mildew, and the snow leads to the formation of ice seal on the surface of the "ground lying grain". As a result, the internal temperature of the grain pile increases, humidity increases, mildew grows, and grain is prone to green and mildew. Jilin Province has experienced rare abnormal weather, high temperatures and alternating rain and snow since December 8, according to Jilin provincial government documents. Among them, Changchun City, Siping City, Liaoyuan City, Jilin City, Tonghua City and Baishan City, the highest temperature for three consecutive days above 0 ℃. In the same period, the overall strength of cold air in China is weak, and the temperature in most parts of the country is higher than that in the same period of the normal year, and the weather forecast shows that the average temperature in most parts of North China and Northeast China on December 15-24 is 1-2 ℃ higher than that in the same period of the normal year. Until early December, the mildew problem of corn in most parts of Jilin Province was not prominent, and the pace of temporary storage and acquisition was normal. However, due to the bulk freezing of corn in Jilin and the listing time at the end of November and December, the cumulative purchase of corn in temporary storage is only 6.86 million tons by December 10, which is nothing compared to the purchase of nearly 20 million tons in Heilongjiang, and some of the temporary grain sources also come from Heilongjiang. According to the calculation of Jilin's annual output of 28 million tons of corn, corn faces a greater risk of mildew in the future.

There is little willingness to consume at the demand level of deep processing.

Recently, the price of starch is stable and weak, the actual transaction price is low, the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises is not strong, the operating rate of starch is high, the inventory of starch is increasing, and the price of starch is under pressure. Monitoring shows that the operating rate of starch processing enterprises in North China is 81%, the same as last week. Some starch factories reported that the operating rate remained high in the past two months, resulting in a significant increase in starch inventories. In the past two weeks, the price of starch in North China has declined, but the digestion rate of starch inventory is not fast. It is expected that the price of starch in North China will continue to be weak in the short term, and individual enterprises can not be ruled out to limit production and reduce production. The market generally expects that the downward pressure of corn price is obvious in the later stage, starch price or mainly refer to corn pricing in the later stage, and the expectation of weak line is higher. However, as the end of the year approaches, it is recommended to pay attention to the downstream procurement rhythm changes.

Looking forward to the future, although for the northeast producing areas, the progress of corn acquisition in the northeast temporary storage has rebounded to a higher level, and market confidence may be boosted, the Spring Festival is approaching, and the next month is the time for farmers in producing areas to concentrate on selling corn. the peak of the quantity will also appear at this time, in addition, due to the warm winter effect brought by the extremely strong El Ni ñ o weather this year, there is a potential threat to the harvest quality of corn in Northeast China. The upward price of corn in Northeast China will still face some pressure. For the producing areas of North China, the game between the future grain sales of farmers and market demand will become the main factor affecting the market price, and the risk of price fluctuation has not been removed in the short term. In the future, we will focus on the changes in the rhythm of grain sales by farmers and the undertaking of downstream storage, enterprises and ports.