In a word, the purchase price of cotton will reach 8 yuan / kg in 2016.

The following is a personal point of view, the content is for reference only, does not represent China Cotton net, does not constitute investment advice for anyone, otherwise all the consequences will be borne by the individual!

The recent abnormal weather changes, low temperature, rainy, and hail frequently patronize the main cotton producing areas, which have a great impact on cotton growth. some rotten roots and some hail smashed into bare poles, and some affected cotton farmers began to worry about cotton production this year. Coupled with the decline in planting area compared with the same period last year, the supply and demand pattern has undergone some changes, which also makes it look forward to the purchase price of seed cotton. At present, it is rumored in the market that the purchase price of cotton will reach 8 yuan / kg, which is the wishful thinking of cotton farmers or the trend of market operation.

It is reported that the recent cotton market spot market and reserve cotton round rock-bottom price are rising, although there is a brief oscillation in the intermediate process, but the upward trend has not been affected. Suppose * * the purchase price of seed cotton really reaches 8 yuan / kg (calculated according to cottonseed 0.9 yuan / jin, lint percentage 40%), which means that * * lint price will reach 17790 yuan / ton (net weight, excluding processing fee). It is about 5000 yuan / ton higher than the current spot price (according to the national cotton market price test data, the average spot price of * * cotton is 12260 yuan / ton on June 22nd). In more than two months, can the purchase price of cotton rise to the expected price of cotton farmers?

As shown in the picture above, both the reserve cotton base price and the mainland average price of commodity cotton have shown an upward trend since May 3, but no one can accurately judge whether the rising trend can last until the new flowers are listed and reach 8 yuan / kg. After all, the market is unpredictable.

Of course, from the perspective of the international market, India, as the world's largest cotton producer this year, domestic cotton prices have also risen sharply. The cotton acreage in India is expected to drop to about 11 million hectares in 2016, the lowest since 2009. The sharp decline in cotton acreage has led to increased concerns among yarn mills and middlemen. Some traders and cotton-related enterprises are also actively purchasing and accumulating cotton.

For cotton farmers, there are too many domestic and foreign factors that affect the market in the later stage, and no one can accurately predict the trend of cotton prices in the future. The top priority is to make efforts to do a good job in cotton field management. After all, only high quality cotton can have excellent prices.

(Muzi)