Market | Pig market is good in the second half of 2016, farmers will make money

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Since mid-June this year, there has been a new round of decline in the meat pig market, with the national average price of lean pigs falling from 20.1 yuan per kilogram to 17.8 yuan per kilogram, a big drop of nearly 20 percent. However, since last week, pig prices have stopped falling and rebounded.

In less than a week, it has risen from 17.8 yuan per kilogram to 18.5 yuan. For a while, the market is bullish, so some people say that high prices like 22 yuan and 24 yuan will soon appear again.

Why is there such a market? Is this pig price increase a temporary periodic rise, or is a new round of rising market already emerging? Let's listen to a report from China Village Voice reporter Li Xin.

The reason for the decline in pig prices in the past two months. Cui Xiaona, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, said that the reason for the decline in pig prices in the past two months is the phased resumption of the supply of live pigs:

Affected by cold and cold air last winter, the mortality rate of pigs was high, and diarrhea of piglets in some areas was particularly serious. Farmers and enterprises found this information, and the number of pigs increased significantly in the later period. With this increase, affecting the supply of pigs in the market, slaughterhouses deliberately lower prices, eventually affecting the market, leading to a continuous decline.

So what is the reason for the recent rise in pig prices? Cui Xiaona believes that the main factor is that the flood affected pig farms, which is a manifestation of the relationship between supply and demand and an endogenous rise.

Some time ago, it was generally rainy in southern China, and floods occurred in many places, affecting pig farms, and some pig farms were hurt very seriously, causing a lot of damage; and the flood disaster hindered the transportation and acquisition of pigs, causing tension in the source of pigs. at present, the flood has receded in many places in the south, and the weather has cleared up, but the source of pigs is less, so the price of live pigs has gone up.

According to statistics, the number of fertile sows in China has not increased significantly in recent months, so what will be the trend of the pig market in the second half of 2016? Feng Yonghui, an analyst at the China Pig early warning Network, believes that the current rebound is small, and there will be a drop in prices in the middle. Overall, the market in the second half of the year is OK, and it is easier to predict the highest and lowest points of the average pig price:

We expect that in the short term, this price may approach 19 yuan per kilogram again. This is the short-term high we judged. The price reached this level before the end of August, and then there may be a wave of decline. The extent of the decline will not be too great. We think that the low point some time ago is the lowest, and the price around 17.5 yuan is basically low.

Feng Yonghui believes that, on the whole, the average price of live pigs within a short period of time, and then a high price of 20 yuan per kilogram, is basically difficult to achieve.

It is very difficult to produce this price. The main reason is that the survival rate of piglets born after March this year is still relatively high. The market time of these piglets begins in September, so the supply increases. The real peak demand season is during the period of the Winter Solstice at the end of the year, so it is too difficult for the price to break through 10 yuan during this period. We think the high price before the Spring Festival is 9.5 yuan to 10 yuan per catty. This is the price of live pigs, and the price of pork is as high as 15 yuan per jin.

Feng Yonghui said that there is another important factor that large-scale farms need to consider, and that is the amount of pork imported. According to past statistics, many food processing companies purchase pork from farmers' markets to make pork products, but this kind of behavior is rare this year, and most of them import pork from abroad to make pork products. Judging from the current momentum, the amount of pork arriving in August may continue to maintain the momentum of June and July and continue to increase. This factor will have an important check on the rise in pig prices. Feng Yonghui believes that under such circumstances, large-scale aquaculture enterprises should stand still and grasp the immediate profits.

Large-scale pig farms may adjust the stock structure according to this market. the profit level of a pig corresponding to the current market is 800 yuan. This profit is already profiteering, and there is no need to expand the scale or reduce the scale. If you want to hold this level in hand, you must have pigs in your hands. For large-scale pig farms, this year is a bumper harvest season, do not go to large-scale expansion to increase production capacity. This is the least desirable.

At present, what people in the industry are most worried about is that the expansion of the scale of farmers in a good market will lead to a reversal of the market. As long as this does not happen, under normal circumstances, pig farmers can make money in the second half of the year.

Editor: Li Xin Wang Xiaojing

Editor of the manuscript: Yang Jie