Will the big drop of last year be repeated this year?

In the past two days, the "power of flood and famine" has been widely used up in Wechat and Weibo circles, while in the agricultural futures circle, the rapid increase and strong rise in oil and oil stocks have also been exhausted. In retrospect, the torrential rains in Argentina in April set off a rising force, fuelled by concerns about Argentine soybean production, quality, falling exports and delayed crushing. The United States and Brazil are happy to erode the market share in Argentina's absence, and exports are accelerating. The elasticity of protein supply is stronger than that of oil and fat, and the oil meal is sharper than that under the disturbance of the supply end, and the accidents in the market are always one after another, or the injured nerves can no longer withstand intimidation, and the high temperature and little rain in the producing areas of American beans cause excitement in the market. with the perfect acceptance of the weather, Meidou is also happy to move forward.

Market risks always go hand in hand with interests, and bets with long and short weights always reverse the balance when you inadvertently. After the loss of Argentine soybeans, the supply and demand of soybeans gradually became clear, and the exports of Brazilian soybeans accelerated, but the risks during the growth of Brazilian soybeans were rigidly forgotten by the market. After the supply-side production was reduced, the consequences of accelerated exports gradually shifted to concerns that the pace was too large and that soybean exports began to shrink themselves, that is to say, before South American soybeans came on the market in the new season. The global purchase of soybeans from September to December will be mainly undertaken by North America.

Now this logic is gradually understood and traded by the market, but the author first saw the deduction of this logic in April, that is, the logic of Dr. Dou's Weibo on the future after the torrential rain in Argentina, which is more than three months ahead of the current time! For researchers rooted in soybeans, the logic is clear and contains opportunities. Meidou's rising trend before the June 30 area report, bulls were also afraid of a higher-than-expected increase in acreage. For risk aversion, Meidou showed a downward trend of concession before the report. It was announced on June 30th that the increase in the planting area of beautiful beans was less than 1.5 million acres, which was not bad. The market expected that between 100 and 2 million acres, the number of American beans rose more than 3% on the same day. In fact, the logic in this is still focused on the weather, the slight loss per unit area caused by high temperature and little rain. Nima's increase in area has not caused much loss, and Midou jumped up with this logic.

Although the logic of the bulls is very good, the logical trend of the market always twists and turns inadvertently. The rainfall in the main soybean producing areas in early July dispelled the market's worries about drought, and the logic of the market returned to the logic of rising per unit yield under high excellent and good rates. while the increase in area is reversed, Midou is oppressed to turn over and fall in a step-by-step posture, which is not too ugly. Before long, the logic of the market finally had a respite, and the export of American beans accelerated! With the acceleration of exports, the export entry of Meidou's balance sheet for 2015 and 16 is expected to increase significantly, such as inspection volume, export volume, final inventory, inventory-consumption ratio, and so on, thus transitioning to another revision of the balance sheet. as mentioned in the above logic, these are correct! That is, at this point in time, the long logic of the market has a short space to move, at least the gap between the advent of risk is promoted by small logic, and the substantial increase in positions of oil meal is very elated.

From the current point of view, the weather factor should be said to be greatly weakened, the next 10 days of the weather basically do not worry, the problem is, what do you want to produce per unit area? From the current range of estimates of professional consultants in the market, which ranges from 47.5 to 48.8 bushels per acre, do you still remember the rainstorm in June 2015 compared with the yield per unit area in 2015? Yes, the beans hit by the heavy rain are still scheduled to produce as much as 48 bushels per acre. Remember that big Yin line that was killed on August 12, 2015? Meidou fell by more than 6%. The drop-limit trend of domestic oil meal can be seen faintly, mainly due to the per unit yield of American beans is much higher than expected!

August 12, 2016 has come, the cycle of time is always like this, inadvertently the year has passed! It can be inferred from the rainstorm in June 2015 that the impact of per unit yield on the weather is weakening, and it would be easy to exceed the yield of 48 bushels per acre in the coming months without major natural disasters. but what if there is an accident in the market on August 12? The per unit yield has not been greatly increased! You might say Barabara, you're right! Therefore, for the price change process, the unilateral bet on the rise of beans still has a greater risk! Do you remember the accident at this time last year? (special contributor Yipin soybeans, the article is from the exclusive original of Agricultural products Futures Network)