"Second Brother" has been "price drop" Olympic Games on pig farmers what impact?

Pig prices continue to rise, when everyone is optimistic that pig prices are high in July and August, but they did not expect the decline in pig prices caused by the concentration of cattle and pigs in June. At present, pig prices are extremely fragile, fluctuating, and all regions are in the stage of slight adjustment. There are too many influencing factors of pig price, farmers do not have the right to say in the market, and the high price of pig fluctuates. In the face of the ups and downs of pig prices, just like watching every final of the Olympic Games, everyone is frightened.

A few days ago, the National Bureau of Statistics released the average price changes of major food in 50 cities (August 1-10, 2016), in which the prices of two categories of pork, hind leg meat and pork belly, fell by 0.6% and 0.7% respectively compared with the previous month. The prices of vegetables including Chinese cabbage, rape, celery, cucumber and beans increased by 4.6%, 3.4%, 1.4%, 1.5% and 5.6% respectively.

Liu Zhe, assistant director of the Wanbo New Economic Research Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that from the latest data, pork prices continue to fall, vegetable prices slow, the impact of flooding weakens, egg prices rise slightly, other food prices are relatively stable, and CPI is expected to continue to fall.

Zhuochuang Information analyst Fang Juntao said in an interview with the Securities Daily that from the average changes in major food prices in 50 cities, pork prices as a whole continue to decline. On the one hand, August is the off-season of pork consumption; on the other hand, due to the previous large-scale flooding in China, pig farmers have also accelerated the production of pigs in order to prevent the outbreak of the epidemic, which also suppresses pork prices to a certain extent. It is not ruled out that pork prices will continue to decline in the future.

"as pork prices account for more than 2.3 per cent of domestic CPI, the decline in pork prices will be a drag on CPI in August." Fang Juntao predicted.

At the same time, due to the impact of flood and waterlogging disasters in this cycle, vegetable prices have increased greatly. Fang Juntao predicted that "vegetable prices will be a major factor in pushing up CPI in August, but the impact will not be too great."

From the supply point of view, there are two reasons, one is the significant decline in the stock of breeding sows. According to monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture, in 4000 monitoring sites in July 2016, the stock of fertile sows was 37.52 million, down 80, 000 from the previous month, down 0.2% from the previous month, and 3.2% from the same period last year; the stock of live pigs was 375.96 million, down 380000 from the previous month, down 0.1% from the previous month, and 2.4% from the same period last year.

The other is that the epidemic of live pigs is quite serious. Last winter ushered in the strongest cold wave, piglet diarrhea, pig influenza and other problems are more serious, the survival rate of piglets is not high, especially in the south. The reduction in the supply of live pigs has aggravated the situation that supply exceeds demand, which is good for the trend of pig prices.

From the demand side, after entering late August, the opening of school and the arrival of the Mid-Autumn Festival have increased the demand for live pigs. As we bid farewell to the hot summer, the off-season demand will improve and the tightening of supply will become apparent quickly. It is more difficult for butchers to purchase, and the rebound in pig prices is intensified.

The current market environment is better than the rise in pig prices, which also gives farmers the confidence to recover their losses and maintain the enthusiasm of raising pigs. Raising pigs is the foundation of pig farmers, and pig price is the courage to support pig farmers. However, although various factors are better than the trend of pig prices, imported pork is still an unstable factor affecting the trend of pig prices in the domestic market.

The reason why the Olympic Games are so passionate is because of the national honor, and the reason why the pig price is so concerned is because of their respective interests. But no matter what the result, the first thing is to have the strength, for the athletes to accumulate training strength is the foundation, for pig farmers to raise pigs is the key.