Can the second brother take off with the pig price again as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches?

Pig profits hit a record high in recent years this year, but pork prices have fallen since June. With the Mid-Autumn Festival approaching, can holiday consumption boost pork prices?

Profit situation of Pig Industry

Although the profits of pig farming this year once reached a new high in recent years, and the industry believes that the next year or two will be a good time to raise pigs, it is undeniable that the cost of the pig industry is getting higher and higher, but profits are gradually beginning to decline.

In addition to cost-related, the more important reason is that more and more large capital into the aquaculture industry, driving the aquaculture industry gradually into intensive, large-scale. In addition, the professional layout of large pig enterprises to expand production is a big deal, which has a great impact on the traditional free-range model, and then it is also an impact on the previous sharp rise and fall of pig prices.

At the same time, it also marks the profiteering era of the aquaculture industry is getting farther and farther away. In the future, the fluctuation of pig price can no longer be determined by small and medium-sized bulk farmers, and large-scale pig farms will become the main force. The strong anti-risk ability and the advantages in the number of pigs and the size of sows will lead to a sharp rise and fall in pig prices in a short period of time, which will play a certain role in avoiding the pig cycle.

The "mass action" and "mass dispersion" of the pig market is a serious disease.

Great changes have taken place in the pig farming industry in the past two years, and this is a trend for the better. However, it is undeniable that the overall development level of the aquaculture industry is not high, and the average annual scale of pig farmers is still relatively small. The production pattern of small and large groups is still supporting the situation of "mass action" and "mass dispersion", and the serious illness of the sharp rise and fall of the pig cycle has not yet been cured. Moreover, the bargaining power of pig farmers in China is very weak, it is easy to be suppressed, it is easy to follow the trend, there is always the problem of not knowing the way.

In one, the scattered pig farming, small-scale problems are gradually focused on solving, coupled with the government to strengthen the governance of environmental protection, the accumulation of labor costs, farmers in the financial strength and psychological acceptance of obstacles. Delisting, entry, entanglement, production expansion and wait-and-see have formed a variety of pig markets. In addition, a large number of imported pork imports, due to the large scale of foreign farms, high degree of mechanization, low cost, obvious price advantage. These are driving the domestic pig industry under the pace of fierce medicine to treat serious disease.

In the face of the pig cycle, some people "escape" and others "guard".

For the pig cycle, farmers are often in a state of helplessness, in fact, the pig cycle is caused by us, but we can only be confused, as if this mystery city is something we can't occupy.

At present, pig prices are in the stage of high operation, but the production capacity will always increase, the downward pig cycle will always come, and the increase in costs naturally means an increase in risk. However, pigs can not be temporarily stopped because of the arrival of the pig cycle, so in the face of the pig cycle, some people "escape" and others "guard".

In fact, for farmers who do not have a fixed supply object, they can only adjust the stock column according to the quality of the market, fill it appropriately when the price is good, and sell as soon as possible when the price is not good. On the other hand, some farmers have realized the order-to-order mode of production, so that whether the pig price rises or falls, the purchase price remains stable, which not only achieves the sustainability of the operation, but also reduces the risk brought by the pig cycle.

At this stage, the pig cycle can only avoid its risks, can not be eliminated, so this is still a challenge to the upper and lower levels of the pig industry to achieve long-term healthy development.

With regard to the pig price in the future, can you take off again?

The tight supply of live pigs can not hide the higher probability of rising again after the adjustment of pig prices.

At present, pig prices continue to show a steady trend of moderate decline, the downward trend in the north shows an obvious trend again, the southern region remains stable, and the central region shows mixed ups and downs. For the future pig prices, the industry generally maintains optimistic expectations, in addition to worries about the weight of big pigs in some areas, the resistance in the future may not be great. Although most of the cattle and pigs were consumed in June and July, it is impossible to clean them up, so they are worried about the increase in the proportion of big pigs in the future, resulting in a concentrated release of pigs in September, resulting in a fall in pig prices or high prices.

However, at present, the weight of live pigs has dropped significantly, and large factories and bulk farmers still have the mood to raise prices, so under the start of terminal pork consumption in September, even if there is pressure on the fence, it is difficult to cover up the tight supply of pigs. Pig prices are likely to rise again after adjustment, but the overall increase will be maintained within a certain reasonable range, so it is difficult to surge or soar.

Pig prices rise and fall steadily and rebound, waiting for demand to boost.

At present, there are no obvious signs of recovery on the demand side of the market, the purchase volume of slaughtering enterprises has declined, and pig prices have declined slightly at this time, but under the restriction of the supply of pigs in the market, the decline in pig prices is not strong. The rise in pig prices in some main selling areas can also boost prices in low-price areas, and domestic pig prices as a whole show a steady upward and downward trend.

After the early centralized fencing and selling, the supply of pigs in the market is generally small, and the body weight of live pigs has decreased significantly, which shows that the advantage of the supply side has been formed. At present, the demand is weak, mainly waiting for its recovery. Demand is expected to improve after late August, with cooler temperatures, the opening of schools and a boost in Mid-Autumn Festival consumption. Slaughtering will also increase, the rebound market waiting for a boost in demand, pig prices are expected to rise with it.

Why does the import of pork give us the feeling of "facing the city"?

The amount of pork imported in June and July has been hitting an all-time high, and with the current momentum, the amount of pork arriving in August is also likely to continue, which will undoubtedly cause further pressure on pig prices. Recently, pig prices have just experienced a slump and are in the stage of gaining momentum to rise, but the entry of a large number of imported pork into the market has also brought us the feeling that we are at the edge of the city.

The large amount of imported pork and low prices do have a great impact on the current pork market, and the number of pork imports that have repeatedly broken records since the beginning of this year also really worries farmers. Although it can not play a leading role, there will still be constraints on the rebound of pig prices in the future. At present, we also believe that imported pork will become an important uncertain factor affecting pig prices in the later stage.

However, the impact of imported pork should be a long-standing problem. As industry insiders say, as long as there is a price difference between inside and outside, when the pig price is high, the impulse of domestic pork traders to import "cheap foreign pigs" will always exist, which is an important means for them to reduce procurement costs.

High concussion is the mainstream in the short-term meat price long-short game.

The industry generally believes that the increase in short-term pork prices is small, in the state of long-short game, high shock will become the mainstream trend. This is mainly based on the consideration of the following three factors: first, the soaring market in the first half of the year is more or less overdrawn by the autumn market, coupled with the release of big pigs and the increase in piglet stock data in the first half of the year, which is negative for the short-term rise in meat prices. Second, the number of pigs raised in the north is generally larger than that in the south, even if the price in the south is strong, then after the next pig transfer starts, the north will continue to go south, dragging down the price of pigs in the south, of course, this is mainly for the demand has not come out of the off-season. Finally, there is the impact of a large number of imported pork into the market.

Especially in the short term, we can clearly see the emergence of pig prices in the north and south, once the pork prices in the north accelerate down slightly, the pork prices in the south will maintain the pattern of in-situ shock and a slight rebound will be very obvious. And in the near future, it is not difficult for slaughtering enterprises to purchase, and the supply is relatively adequate, so slaughtering enterprises still have room for bargaining. Generally speaking, in the short-term short-term meat price long-short game, high shock is the mainstream.

The pig price curve may not fluctuate too much in late August.

For the trend of the pig market in the future, the mainstream trend of pig prices to maintain high operation is certain, but for the market which is in a state of consolidation and can not rebound, coupled with the industry generally believes that the probability of future pig prices rising is very low, so people generally begin to worry about whether fencing, imported pork, consumption and so on will cause greater fluctuations in pig prices in the future. In fact, the final impact on the pig price curve is the ratio of supply and demand in the market. As long as there is little change between supply and demand, the volatility of pig prices will naturally be reduced.

The trend of pig prices from June to August is actually getting better and better, the decline is getting smaller and smaller, and the rising trend is more obvious. The industry believes that pig prices have experienced a "fever" trend in the first half of the year, some farmers reduce losses and increase income, and piglets are more active in spring and summer. Coupled with the extensive supply of pork, the supply side is guaranteed. In the near future, live pigs are expected to remain stable, and pig prices are expected to fluctuate little later this month and may show a stable and weakening trend, with a small rebound still accompanied by them.