Pig prices have peaked and dropped back. Retail investors entered the market hastily.

The increase in slaughtering quantity is the main factor for the recent decline in pork prices in China. The increase in slaughtering volume increases the market supply, which directly puts downward pressure on pork prices.

The current round of pig price "bull market" may have come to an end. Retail investors should not enter the market hastily. Large investors should come up with the dividends earned by the "bull market" to improve the level of automation and reduce breeding costs as soon as possible.

The average price per kilogram of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market on September 9 was 25.02 yuan, down 6.27 yuan from 31.29 yuan in the second week of June, according to monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture. "after mid-June, pig prices began to fall. But everyone thought the price would go up after the flood, but it hasn't gone up yet. " Hu Jizheng, chairman of Zhennong Industrial Company in Qichun County, Hubei Province, who has 5000 live pigs, said in an interview with the Economic Daily.

On September 9, the average wholesale price of white striped pigs in Beijing Xinfadi market was 21.3 yuan per kilogram, down 2.74 percent from September 2. Liu Tong, manager of the Statistics Department of Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural and sideline Wholesale Market, believes that pig prices have fallen to varying degrees across the country because of adequate supply.

In addition, slaughtering data from designated pig slaughtering enterprises of the Ministry of Agriculture show that the slaughtering number of pigs in China in July was 15.1018 million, an increase of 5.1% from the previous month and 1.2% from the same period last year. "the increase in slaughtering is the main factor contributing to the recent decline in pork prices in China. The increase in slaughtering volume has increased market supply and directly put downward pressure on pork prices. " Said Zhu Zengyong, market early warning analyst of the Ministry of Agriculture and associate researcher of the International Intelligence Research Office of the Institute of Agricultural Information of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.

The sufficient supply of live pigs is also due to the wide price gap at home and abroad, which has stimulated a substantial increase in pork imports. According to customs data, China imported 309700 tons of live pig products in July, up 145.3% from the same period last year. In the middle of the period, pork accounted for 183400 tons, up 209.4% from a year earlier, close to an all-time high. In the first seven months of this year, pork imports were 945700 tons, an increase of 149.4 percent over the same period last year and 21.6 percent higher than those for the whole of 2015.

Since March 2015, the price of newly developed pork has always been higher than that of the same period last year. In July this year, the weighted average price of newly issued white striped pigs was 22 yuan per kilogram, down 9.93 percent from 24.36 yuan in June and 2.49 percent from 22.5 yuan per kilogram in the same period in 2015. After continuing for as long as a year, the price of newly issued pork has finally fallen below the level of the same period last year. " Liu Tong believes that the period of shortage of wool pigs has passed, and the overall situation has changed from tight to loose.

In fact, pork prices peaked and fell as early as September last year. After rising sharply for more than 20 weeks, pig prices in Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang and other southern provinces have fallen in the second week of September last year, driving down pig prices in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Shandong, Henan and other major producing provinces.

However, after the beginning of winter, many places encountered strong cold spell weather, and newborn piglets died in a large area in pig farms in Hubei, Henan and other main producing provinces. Resulting in a shortage of pig supply, leading to pig prices to go back to "cattle". After spring this year, the weather became warmer, the survival rate of piglets returned to normal, and the supply of pigs was gradually sufficient. Of course, pig prices had to return to the downward channel. "it has been half a year since the end of the severe cold spell, and it takes about half a year for pigs to fatten up. At present, all the pigs on the market are pigs born after the strong cold spell. Judging from the law of seasonal fluctuations in pork prices, the price of white-striped pigs is a phased high at the beginning of August, and it is difficult to break through in the following months. There is no doubt that meat prices have entered the downward channel. " Liu Tong said.

"from the import side, China can be expected to maintain a substantial increase in imports of live pig products compared with the same period last year, which will curb the rise in pig prices." Zhu Zengyong said.

There are signs that this round of pig price "bull market" may be coming to an end, retail investors must not enter hastily. On the other hand, large households should take out the dividends earned by the "bull market", improve the level of automation as soon as possible, reduce breeding costs, and curb the large share of international cheap pork market.