How long can the rise in wheat prices last?

"before the end of the year, I feel that the price of Pumai will rise to more than 1.25 yuan per jin, or even as high as 1.3 yuan per jin." Lao Mu, a wheat buyer in Yanjin County, Henan Province, told Futures Daily that since August, more and more flour enterprises, large and medium-sized grain depots, and so on, have come to Yanjin County to purchase wheat, and there is almost no wheat of good quality and in line with the national standard. Wheat prices are sure to rise in the later stage.

According to the reporter's understanding, there is a strong bullish mentality in the domestic wheat market, and the prices of wheat and flour have also risen slightly. At the same time, many wheat traders began to buy and hoard better quality wheat, and the supply of effective goods in the market is becoming tight.

Compared with previous years, the per unit yield, total yield and quality of wheat in China this year are not satisfactory. Due to the overcast and rainy weather in most producing areas during the wheat harvest, the yield and quality of wheat both declined, resulting in the phenomenon of unpurchased low-quality wheat in the market, and the price of wheat in some producing areas also dropped sharply. But why is there a strong bullish mentality in the current domestic wheat market?

Zhang Wei, a wheat trader in Hengshui City, Hebei Province, told reporters that after Xinmai was listed this year, most of the market buyers held a wait-and-see attitude due to the poor quality of Xinmai, and in order to protect farmers' interests from being damaged by the disaster, the relevant institutions, in view of the special circumstances such as the poor quality of Xinmai, timely introduced policies to relax acquisition standards and buy a large number of them, and some producing areas also launched local acquisition plans one after another. This not only increases the purchase volume of the wheat market, drives the wheat market purchase and sale to become active, but more importantly, it also drives the market main body to actively participate in the acquisition, and the wheat market price is quickly boosted.

"up to now, the total amount of wheat purchased at the lowest price in China's main wheat producing areas is larger than that in the same period last year, and the total amount of social commodity wheat purchased is also relatively large. In particular, most of the high-quality wheat that can be circulated in the market has been purchased and put into storage. There has been a structural supply shortage in the market, and the rising trend of wheat prices, especially high-quality wheat prices, will not change in the short term." Zhang Wei said.

However, according to Zhang Huijun, a flour processor in Puyang City, Henan Province, there is little room for wheat prices to rise in the later period.

"first of all, from the point of view of the total wheat market supply, the current domestic wheat market prices are mainly high-quality wheat, the supply of low-quality wheat is still very large, and the price is relatively low. Under the premise of ensuring product, quality and food safety, if the price of high-quality wheat continues to rise, grain enterprises can increase the purchase of low-quality wheat through scientific collocation. At that time, the demand for high-quality wheat will decline quickly. Secondly, although it has entered the peak demand season of the flour industry, and the ex-factory price of flour has also increased slightly, the processing profit of milling enterprises is still very low, and the opening rate of the whole industry is still not high. In addition, the price of wheat bran, a by-product of wheat processing, has dropped to about 0.5 yuan / jin, and the large demand for wheat-milling enterprises can not bear the cost pressure of rising wheat prices. Finally, the destocking pressure in the wheat market is still very great, and the selling of wheat such as the State Reserve and temporary reserves can fully meet the market demand. In the case of hopeless rise in wheat prices in the later period, traders will also compete to sell. It is suggested that we should treat the rise in wheat prices cautiously. " Zhang Huijun analysis.

When the reporter communicated with some wheat traders, he learned that the market expects that there is a high probability that the relevant institutions will continue to implement the lowest price purchase policy in the domestic wheat market next year. Based on the analysis of the adjustment of China's wheat output, price and related agricultural products purchase policy in recent years, the wheat market will continue to implement the lowest price purchase policy next year. Combined with the analysis of the current minimum purchase price, such as large wheat inventory, the domestic wheat price is mainly stable in the later stage, and the policy characteristics are still obvious. It is also understood that the sown area of wheat in China has increased steadily in recent years, and it is estimated that the sown area of wheat will not change much next year when the income of farmers planting other crops has not increased significantly in recent years.