A bumper corn harvest is in sight. What should we rely on to activate the market?

"Buy, buy! Say the important things three times. " At the Jilin Provincial Grain production and Marketing Cooperation Fair held in August, Jilin Vice Governor Sui Zhong used an online buzzword to express the urgency of selling grain. He appealed to nearly 1,000 heads of grain administrative departments and representatives of grain-related enterprises from 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities across the country: "buy more grain from Jilin."

At present, a bumper harvest of corn is in sight on the black land of Jilin. This year, the corn temporary storage policy has been cancelled and market pricing has been implemented. As a major corn planting province, what kind of test will Jilin Province face and what measures will be taken to deal with it?

How much corn is there?

The average annual output is about 58 billion jin, and the actual processing capacity is less than half of the output.

"A few years ago, food prices went up year after year, so people rest assured that they planted corn boldly and planted corn as a 'iron' crop, and growing corn has also become our strong point." Sun Shoufeng, a major grain grower in Wangfuzhan Town, Songyuan City, said that more than 170 hectares of corn have been planted this year, more than 60 hectares less than last year.

Corn in Jilin Province is mainly yellow corn, with an annual sown area of about 59 million mu, an output of about 58 billion jin, accounting for about 15% of the country's total, a commodity volume of about 55 billion jin, and a commodity rate of 95%, ranking first in the country.

This year, Jilin Province has reduced the planting area of grain corn by 3.3258 million mu. According to the calculation of the yield of 1000 jin per mu, Jilin Province can reduce more than 3 billion jin of corn.

A few years ago, corn price production areas were upside down and domestic and international markets were upside down, causing imported corn and substitutes to enter the market, and domestic corn into warehouses, said Yang Guang, deputy director of the Jilin Provincial Grain Bureau. The acquisition of temporary storage was launched in November last year, and as of April 30 this year, Jilin Province had acquired 53.1 billion kilograms of corn.

At present, the corn inventory is still running at a high level, but the processing and transformation capacity is limited, and the market demand for finished corn products is not prosperous.

Corn deep processing, as one of the three pillar industries in Jilin Province, has an annual processing capacity of 30 billion jin and an actual annual processing capacity of about 22 billion jin, ranking second in the country. In this way, more than half of the corn yield in Jilin Province needs to be digested every year.

What is the price of corn on the market this year? "the price assignment should not be too good." At present, when the harvest season is approaching, Sun Shoufeng is concerned about the price of corn, but he does not hold high hopes.

"No one can answer the question accurately." Chen Xiwen, member of the standing Committee of the CPPCC National Committee and former deputy head of the Central Rural work leading Group and director of the office, said that according to market pricing, the price of imported corn on shore gives a reference.

"the CIF price of US corn to Guangzhou is about 1400 yuan per ton, and the recent futures price is about 1450 yuan per ton." Yang Guang said that according to this estimate, the price of corn may be less than 70 cents per jin this autumn.

Behind the decline in corn prices, the environment in which supply exceeds demand has not changed. According to Yang Guang's analysis, at present, the annual corn supply in the country is more than 570 billion jin, and the consumption is only about 410 billion jin, and the difference between supply and demand is still considerable.

Judging from the situation of policy-oriented grain storage and unloading in Jilin Province, recently, 2 million tons are sold every week, and the turnover has been less than 100000 tons. At present, through targeted sales to deep processing and feed enterprises, open bidding sales and other channels, Jilin Province has sold 17.544 billion jin of policy grain.

How big is the test?

The situation of corn purchase and sale market is complicated, farmers have a wait-and-see mentality, and grain trade and processing enterprises are lack of acquisition funds.

The price of corn is determined by the market, which has caused a series of chain reactions, and the purchase and sale market is facing a big test.

As a key leading enterprise of national agricultural industrialization, Jilin Xintianlong Industry Co., Ltd. has a raw material corn storage capacity of 500000 tons and an annual processing and conversion capacity of more than 900,000 tons.

"at present, enterprises are operating at full capacity, mainly auctioning grain from grain depots. There are only 75000 tons in the warehouse, which can be used for a month. With so much old grain in the grain depot, enterprises dare not easily set up inventory. " Wang Xianqi, director of the company's material storage department, said.

Yang Guang said that due to the difficult to predict corn market prices and the prospect of a bumper corn harvest this year, terminal feed and deep processing enterprises only retain short-term processing stocks, grain collection, storage and trading enterprises can only adopt the strategy of buying and selling at the same time.

"if the price of autumn grain on the market is too low, you have to keep it after the harvest, and wait until the beginning of spring at the latest." Sun Shoufeng said that the co-operatives do not have sufficient funds, and when they start farming in spring, they have to sell grain to raise money.

"the market price is certainly not comparable to the price when the temporary reserve policy was implemented before. After the purchase of autumn grain, if the price is not ideal, it is estimated that farmers will be reluctant to sell. " Yang Guang said that if farmers concentrate on selling grain in the early spring, problems such as difficulties in selling grain and bad grain may break out, and it will also highlight the contradiction between the massive centralized listing of grain and the scattered procurement of enterprises over the years.

Chen Xiwen believes that years of corn storage policy has created a policy city. The temporary storage price of corn is higher than the market price, which makes it difficult for other operators to carry out grain trade except the departments and enterprises that undertake the policy grain purchase.

To straighten out the corn price formation mechanism and let it really move towards market pricing, we need dynamic market players, that is, grain trade and processing enterprises to fully participate.

"this not only requires enterprises to have warehousing and other relevant qualifications, but also have the financial strength to purchase grain, which is inseparable from financial support." Chen Xiwen said: otherwise, farmers' grain will not be realized without diversified market entities participating in the acquisition of autumn grain.

According to the annual corn commodity volume of about 55 billion jin in Jilin Province, the demand for acquisition funds will exceed 40 billion yuan. "it is impossible to rely solely on enterprises to raise funds for this commodity, and it cannot be operated without loans." Yang Guang said that because of market risks, banks do not dare to lend easily, and enterprises face obstacles in financing acquisitions.

How hard is it to deal with?

The docking of production and marketing activates the market, and the financial system of service purchase and sale needs to be improved.

"although the transportation cost per ton of corn is about 200 yuan, the corn in Jilin Province is of good quality and is suitable for us to do feed processing." Zhou Lijie, general manager of Nanning Grain Reserve Management Company in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region, said that last year, Guangxi produced 10.58 million tons of feed and bought about 5 million tons of corn, of which Jilin corn accounted for more than 40 percent of the total.

Jilin Province is located in one of the three "Sautéed Sweet Corn with Salted Egg Yolk belts" in the world. The natural conditions are conducive to the development of high-quality corn planting, and the corn quality is higher. Data show that the average bulk density of Jilin corn is more than 700 grams, with more than 80% of the second-class corn.

At the grain production and marketing cooperation meeting held a few days ago, Zhou Lijie's company signed an agreement on the purchase of 100000 tons of corn and an agreement on behalf of 100000 tons of corn with Jilin Provincial Grain Reserve Collection and Storage Co., Ltd.

"with the help of the Grain Fair and the docking of visits, we have found old friends and made new friends, so that when grain enterprises around the country use grain, they can think of Jilin. This is a small step in activating the purchase and sale market. " According to Yang Guang, the Grain Fair has signed a total of 190 projects, with a grain trade volume of 9.48 million tons and a turnover of nearly 20 billion yuan.

Jilin Province fully mobilizes the market of marketing areas, allowing major grain-producing cities and counties in the province to dock with other provinces, cities and grain-related enterprises, mobilize enterprises inside and outside the province to make use of favorable factors such as 100 billion jin storage capacity, more than 300 billion jin collection and storage capacity, superior grain storage climate and smooth outward transportation capacity, to carry out production and marketing cooperation in the form of purchasing agents, joint purchasing and marketing, cooperative operation, and remote storage.

"to solve the problem of grain purchase and sale, we must allow grain to be harvested in warehouses, by people and by money." Yang Guang said.

According to reports, this year, Jilin Province mobilized multiple main bodies to build warehouses, with social financing of 890 million yuan and a warehouse capacity of 4 million tons. At the same time, the province will expand the number of grain banks to 150, build scientific granaries and guide farmers to make self-made grain storage equipment, which can basically meet the needs of warehousing and farmers' courtyard grain storage.

In the first half of this year, Jilin Province issued a policy to subsidize 150 yuan per ton for self-purchasing corn processing enterprises, allowing large-scale deep processing enterprises to maintain a relatively high operating rate.

"in the next step, the province will promote the merger and reorganization of the corn deep processing industry, extend the industrial chain, develop intensive processing, and increase added value. At the same time, promote feed enterprises and aquaculture industry to expand the amount of breeding conversion, and promote the processing and transformation of corn nearby. " Yang Guang said.

At present, Jilin Province is improving the basic information system of grain enterprises, including the main information of grain-related enterprises in the province. This will provide reliable information for the financial sector and facilitate banks to make loans. However, "the government is still limited to promoting the organization of cooperation between banks and enterprises, and the financial system that really serves the purchase and sale of grain remains to be improved." Yang Guang said.