Promoting the healthy Development of Dairy Industry with Top-level Design

The reporter recently learned that in recent years, China's dairy industry has gradually lost its pricing power, resulting in substantial fluctuations in milk prices, causing great harm to both upstream and downstream of the dairy industry. Some enterprises and experts are worried that under the current situation, if the breeding team is still unstable and the proportion of imported milk is further increased, China's "milk bottles" may completely fall into the hands of foreign enterprises.

"three years for pigs and four years for milk". The industry believes that the milk cycle in China has been formed and will become the norm. In 2013, the price of milk in China reached as high as 5.5 yuan, and then began to decline. The rate of decline increased in the first half of 2015, and has now fallen to 3.5 yuan, a decline of nearly 40% in the past two years, showing a roller coaster fluctuation.

The sharp rise and fall of milk prices has had a great impact on the healthy development of China's dairy industry. In the peak of milk prices in 2013, many processing enterprises had to accept milk at high prices in order to ensure production, resulting in upside down prices of raw milk and products; in the troughs of milk prices in 2015, processing enterprises had to reject milk and limit milk, causing farmers to kill cows and pour milk, damaging the whole industry chain.

"the barometer of milk prices is not at home, but at Fonterra's auction prices." Chen Lijun, deputy general manager of Beijing Sanyuan Food Co., Ltd., said that the fluctuation of milk prices in China is mainly affected by international milk prices, and now there is a cycle of three to five years.

Liu Meiju, vice chairman of the China Dairy Industry Association, said that a rule has been formed in recent years. When milk supply is tight, prices abroad will rise, and cattle will be raised at home. If there are more cattle raised at home, prices will be lowered abroad, and cattle will be killed at home.

Experts believe that the reason why China's dairy industry is greatly influenced by the world is that imported milk accounts for an excessive proportion of China's dairy market, and it is still increasing, and China's dairy industry is losing its right to speak. According to statistics, the annual output of raw milk in China has increased by about 0.8% since 2008, but the growth rate of processing and consumption is more than 6%, of which the gaps are filled by imported dairy products.

According to statistics, the annual sales of infant milk powder in China in 2015 was about 700000 tons, of which 176000 tons were imported from the original and small packages, an increase of 45 percent over the same period last year. The amount of milk powder bought by overseas purchasing agents, overseas shopping, online shopping and imported milk powder also increased rapidly, reaching an all-time high of 130000 tons. Imports of liquid milk were 470000 tons, an increase of 39 per cent over the same period last year.

The reporter's survey found that although the absolute number of imported dairy products declined last year, domestic dairy products declined even faster, that is, the overall proportion of imported dairy products is still on the rise, accounting for about 25%.

Gu Cheng, secretary general of the China Dairy Association, said that the proportion of imported milk is basically reasonable or even a little more, but he is worried that uncertainties will lead to a sudden and rapid increase in the proportion of imported milk, "for example, the European Union has abolished the quota system." and the relationship with Russia, a big consumer, is tense, and excess milk has to pour into China. "

It is generally believed in the industry that the effective use of both international and domestic resources is the only way for the development of China's dairy industry, but China's dairy industry still needs to be stable, and milk bottles cannot be held in the hands of foreigners.

Liu Meiju said that priority should be given to encouraging enterprises to use more domestic milk sources, and then import them appropriately. But now, on the one hand, the proportion of imports is rising, on the other hand, domestic cattle are being killed and poured milk, and enterprises are on the verge of closing down, which is obviously an abnormal phenomenon.

Song Liang, a dairy analyst, said that if China's aquaculture industry cannot maintain stability in the milk cycle, then the next trough of the dairy industry will completely destroy the foundation of large-scale farming since 2008. "the cumulative investment of 140 billion yuan in land and infrastructure for dairy farming over the years has gone down the drain."

Experts say that unlike the price cycle of pigs and poultry, cow fencing is expensive and time-consuming, and if the breeding industry loses money in a large area, after the milk market is occupied by foreign countries, it is very difficult for China to get it back. Chen Lijun said that if the proportion is not properly grasped, once the handle of the dispensing knife is in the hands of others, using imported milk is tantamount to drinking poison to quench thirst.

The industry believes that if the current situation continues to develop, farmers withdraw from the market on a large scale, the whole system of milk sources collapses, and enterprises are forced to use imported milk as raw materials on a large scale, at that time, international milk prices will soar, and the right to the development of the dairy industry will be controlled by foreign countries. the cost of development will rise greatly, and our country will have to spend more money to buy imported milk to meet the domestic demand for dairy products.

In addition, experts believe that foreign milk powder is not suitable for Chinese physique, and it is also worrying if children grow up on foreign milk powder. Gu said that many dairy enterprises in China have cooperated with human milk research institutions to establish a breast milk bank to produce milk powder that is most suitable for Chinese infants and young children. For example, our national standard requires that whey protein accounts for more than 60% of milk powder, but European and American original milk powder does not pay much attention to this problem.

Experts pointed out that if China's dairy industry wants to develop healthily and steadily and solve the problem of "milk cycle", there is an urgent need for a more comprehensive and perfect top-level design to more accurately judge the current situation of aquaculture, supply and demand, and self-sufficiency in our country. in order to formulate more accurate policies.

The first is to clarify the leading position of domestic aquaculture in the dairy industry. Song Liang said that if the small and medium-sized farms disappear in the future and the international milk sources completely control the domestic market, the big farms will basically disappear. Therefore, at present, it is appropriate to give appropriate protection to medium-sized farms with 100 to 1000 heads, and in the long run, we should support small and medium-sized farms with family farms and cooperatives as the main body.

The second is to make a systematic survey of the whole dairy industry. Experts say that the currently released statistics on the dairy industry are watery, and further research is needed to investigate the number of real dairy cows in China, how much raw milk can be produced, how much environmental capacity, how much land is available, how many cows can be raised in different regions, domestic processing and consumption capacity, and so on, so that the introduction and implementation of other policies can be based on.

The third is to clarify the level of self-sufficiency in dairy industry. Li Shengli, chief scientist of the national dairy industry technology system, said that it is right to mix with imported milk, but at present no department knows how much is reasonable, and China's dairy industry is likely to evolve into "imported milk as well as imported milk." The relevant departments also need to study how much the self-sufficiency rate is appropriate, how much is the red line, how much is the warning line, and hold the bottle tightly in their hands.

Fourth, we need a medium-and long-term top-level design across departmental and regional interests, standing at the national height and from a global perspective, to stabilize China's dairy production and the balance between supply and demand. Chen Yu, an associate researcher at the School of cadre Management of the Ministry of Agriculture, said that the dairy industry involves everything from recommending raising cattle to processing and selling. The Australian Bureau of Agriculture and the United States Department of Agriculture are managed by one department, but our country is now "the railway police, each managing its own section." sometimes the policies issued by various ministries and commissions and provinces and regions fail to take into account the national market as a whole, but aggravate the dairy crisis. Therefore, in the next step, when the country formulates the dairy industry policy, it must be clear when listening to both sides.