The situation of land scale centralization needs to be re-examined.

The food problem of the populous countries has been firmly tied to the rope of the imbalance between urban and rural and regional development. To enhance the understanding of grain inventory management, solve the essential problems of grain storage, and prevent problems before they occur, is not only the essence of food security early warning and monitoring, but also the foundation of governing the country.

At any time, in any country, food is the most important thing for the people. It is not up to you and me to decide whether it is cost-effective to grow grain or not. small farmers who make a living on the land will weigh it and make the choice of voting with their feet and going higher. Small farmers grow what kind of food in which season, and when and where to store it, is the real reason for the sharp increase in stocks. To some extent, the increase of grain reserves of a certain type is a by-product of the urbanization campaign. To break this dilemma, it is necessary to optimize the regional agricultural division of labor and fundamentally eliminate the distribution gap between urban and rural labor income.

In 1995, China's rural population reached a peak of about 860 million; since then, it has decreased year by year, to about 620 million in 2014. The number of employees in the primary industry reached 390 million in 1994, and has decreased year by year since then. As of 2014, the number of employees in the primary industry is still 230 million, with a net decrease of 160 million in 21 years. The large-scale transfer of rural labor force to non-agricultural industries and the change of human-land relationship have led to the acceleration of the concentration of agricultural land.

From 1982 to 1991, it can be regarded as the decade when China's small farmers had the highest enthusiasm for production, increasing grain production by 100 million tons, from 360 million tons in 1982 to 460 million tons in 1990, of which grain increased by 29.48 million tons in 1982, 32.78 million tons in 1983 and 38.69 million tons in 1990. It was not until 2007 that China's grain output rose to 500 million tons. From 1999 to 2003, grain production decreased by about 16%, because the continuous decline in grain prices discouraged farmers from growing grain, and it was not until 2008 that the total output returned to the 1998 level. Judging from the time interval between a substantial reduction in grain production and an increase in grain production, it generally takes 8 to 10 years. The last big increase began in 2007, with grain production rising from 500 million tons to 600 million tons in six years, with corn being the largest increase, which was basically close to its peak in 2015. According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, in 2014, the average net profit per mu of vegetables was 2070 yuan, about 10.1 times that of rice, 23.6 times that of wheat and 25.30 times that of corn.

Admittedly, the yield and inventory of corn and wheat have increased sharply in our country, which explains why the yield has increased year after year, in addition to seed, technology and other factors, it is mainly due to the increase of sown area. Why is the sown area increased? Due to the low labor consumption required by the two food crops, it is convenient for mechanized farming and massive application of pesticides and chemical fertilizers to save labor. In view of the sharp increase in the inventory of the two major food crops, the author explains that it is rooted in the structural shortage of agricultural labor, small farmers or large-scale farmers have changed a large amount of farmland to corn and wheat, increasing the sown area; thanks to the use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides and new seeds, the output per unit area has also increased slightly, and the accelerated scale, commercialization and mechanization have led to an increase in both production and commercial grain stocks. With the help of corn yield variables in a local area of the south, we can deduce or measure how serious the agricultural problem of the elderly in this area is; and so on, with the help of the change of wheat yield in a local area in the north, we can look at the aging degree of its agricultural labor force! The linear growth trend of a single variety of grain, such as corn, has long reflected the difficulties and problems of the unreasonable development of agricultural employment structure and land management, especially the situation of scale and land centralization need to be re-examined.

In November last year, the Ministry of Agriculture issued guidance on the structural adjustment of the "sickle bend" area of corn planting. Its goal is to stabilize the corn planting area in such areas at 100 million mu by 2020, reducing the demand within six years by more than 50 million mu, and plans to reduce the corn planting area by more than 10 million mu in 2016. In August 2014, when the author was doing research in Northeast China, during the bus ride from Mishan City of Jixi City to Harbin, corn was planted on both sides of nearly 600 kilometers of highway. As a major province of grain production in China, Heilongjiang has the highest degree of mechanization, scale and industrialization of corn planting due to its unique natural endowment. During the household survey in Mishan City, a farmer in the outer village of the farm rented more than 1000 mu of land from the farm to grow corn; however, the small bungalow built by the farmer was about 80 square meters, which is unlikely to grow or store sellers like small farmers in the south. According to reports, the Bao Gu harvested by it is sold directly to the nearest China Grain Reserve purchase Base. In July 2013, the author carried out rice planting research in a grain and oil cooperative in Quyuan District, Yueyang City, Hunan Province. Almost all the rice harvested in nearly 10,000 mu of paddy fields was also sold to the nearby grain storage base.

The real reason for the sharp increase in stocks is the season in which small farmers grow, what kind of grain they grow, and when and where they store it. To some extent, the increase of a certain type of grain storage is actually a by-product of the urbanization campaign. To break this dilemma, it is necessary to redefine the agricultural industry, optimize the regional agricultural division of labor, and fundamentally eliminate the gap in the income distribution of urban and rural labor. At the beginning of the 21st century, China's continuous "bumper harvest" of grain has sounded the alarm. Relying on the construction of granaries, the implementation of price marketization, and the scale, industrialization and technicalization of land management, it is difficult to fundamentally ensure food security. on the contrary, it is necessary to beware of throwing bamboo baskets into thin air when various inductive policies are introduced. Because of the displacement of the storage location, the stored grain is stored in the people (room) to stored in the storehouse, so this expression is simplified to "the theory of storage displacement". Looking for the real problem of China's grain (agriculture) production in the era of urbanization, the problem of digital stock management may become a blockbuster that endangers the food problem of our countrymen.

In a word: the food problem of the most populous countries has been firmly tied to the rope of the imbalance between urban and rural and regional development. To enhance the understanding of grain inventory management, solve the essential problems of grain storage, and prevent problems before they occur, is not only the essence of food security early warning and monitoring, but also the foundation of governing the country.