Why should we adhere to the red line of 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land?

In 2006, the outline of the Eleventh five-year Plan for National Economic and Social Development adopted by the fourth session of the 10th National people's Congress clearly pointed out that 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land is a binding index and an insurmountable red line in the next five years.

1.8 billion mu is based on five sets of data: first, the number of cultivated land. After investigation and calculation by the State Land Administration, it is concluded that the amount of net cultivated land is 1.97 billion mu. Second, the population. According to the forecast of the authoritative department, the peak of population will be 1.5 billion-1.6 billion by 2040 or 2050. At that time, the urban population will be more than 1 billion and the rural population will be about 500 million. Third, the number of urban and rural construction land. At that time, there were 380 million mu of urban and rural construction land, with reference to the actual occupation level of the United States, Japan and other developed countries at that time, and according to the ratio of cultivated land to non-cultivated land newly occupied by urban and rural construction a few years ago, urban and rural construction land will occupy more than 200 million mu of cultivated land by 2040. In addition, more than 100 million mu of arable land has been reduced, such as returning farmland and disaster damage. Fourth, the number of reserve resources of cultivated land. There are more than 200 million mu of arable land suitable for the development of cultivated land resources, including farmland consolidation and wasteland renovation. The third and the fourth group of data increase or decrease offset, by 2040, can retain 1.8 billion mu of arable land. Fifth, the number of grain demand. According to the per capita consumption level of the moderately developed countries in the world, and with reference to the daily food calories per person (medium demand) proposed by the World Food and Agriculture Organization, the average person needs 500kg of grain per year, and 1.5 billion people need 750 billion kg. However, China's total grain output has hovered at 500 billion kg for many years. If the quality of land and the level of agricultural science and technology can be improved, it is possible to increase the amount of grain by 250 billion kg in more than 50 years. Thus it can be seen that 1.8 billion mu is really the lower limit of arable land in China at present and in the future. The red line of 1.8 billion mu is unbreakable, which is not only a high-voltage line to protect cultivated land, but also a warning line for food security, which must be strictly guarded.