Experts on the impact of continuous rainfall on vegetable prices: caution is needed to expand the planting of vegetables

The continuous rainfall in the south can be said to have touched the hearts of the Chinese people. Under the influence of the torrential rain, the vegetable baskets in people's homes were also affected. Take Wuhan as an example, the prices of most vegetables in Wuhan have risen significantly, with a general price increase of more than 10%, with the highest price increase of 40%. Vegetable vendors said that the main reason for the price increase was that there was a gap between vegetable production and transportation, which was blocked by torrential rains.

The price of vegetables has gone up, does it mean that there is a business opportunity for growing vegetables? Wang Zhu, a special commentator for Village Voice of China, analyzed: economic factors are interconnected, and predicting the market needs to grasp the key and think twice before you act.

Wang Zhu: why does the flood affect the price of food? After the outbreak of the flood, it takes time to re-dredge the drainage ditch of the damaged land, repair and improve the drainage and irrigation facilities, and carry out ploughing and cleaning, and there are more diseases and insect pests in the initial stage after the flood, resulting in a decline in production and a rise in prices, which is the most direct reason.

But according to current estimates, although torrential rains have affected vegetable prices, the CPI in June is not high, and the CPI in July may not soar. Why? First, China has adopted a stable monetary policy, and second, the decline in the prices of cattle and sheep and the stability of vegetable oil and grain prices have stabilized the pressure brought about by the rise in vegetable prices.

Torrential rains and floods have affected vegetable prices, vegetable prices have affected CPI, and the stability of other agricultural products has stabilized prices. The logic is that the whole economic factors are interrelated, not independent, and a variety of factors need to be considered in the study and judgment of an economic event.

Hubei is not only an important province of vegetable production, but also an important province of laying hen breeding. in this round of torrential rain, Hubei's vegetables and laying hens have suffered heavy losses. Some farmers around Hubei think that it is necessary to expand the scale in time to fill the market space and obtain high profits. such an idea may not come true. Because the market as a whole, part of the loss, there will be a strong ability of self-regulation, nearby areas to increase the amount of cultivation, may not be able to expand income.

Agriculture has the characteristics of long cycle and high risk, and many people feel that the market is always elusive, or even seriously lagging behind. In fact, these markets can have basic research and judgment, which should be based on the relevance of a certain field. To consider as a whole, only the most critical factors have changed, there will be major fluctuations, otherwise it is only wishful thinking. As the saying goes, indiscriminate flowers are gradually becoming attractive, do not affect the judgment because of some factor, master the key to set the fog, planting and breeding will have a future.