Learn to treat the relationship between egg future price and current price rationally

Since the beginning of April, the egg futures prices of large trading houses have deviated from the spot trend. The price of the main contract 1609 reached 4300 yuan / 500kg at one point in mid-April, then fell back to 3800 yuan / 500kg and exceeded 4000 again in recent days. And spot egg prices due to lower feed raw material prices at the beginning of this year, laying hens have increased since March, and egg spot prices have fallen. This situation has aroused widespread concern in the market. Is the spot price difference of egg futures within a reasonable range? Market participants believe that egg futures prices reflect seasonal characteristics, in line with the trend of price changes over the years. As a standardized forward contract, futures reflects the price expectation in the future. it is unreasonable to measure the hedging effect by comparing the current spot price with the September futures contract price.

Why do egg prices fluctuate within the range of reasonable expectations? Because the price of eggs has distinct seasonal characteristics. Judging from the price trend of eggs for the whole year in the past, the price of eggs in September has been the highest of the year. Because in the hot weather, egg production decreases, and it is difficult to store, the inventory level is low, and the supply is limited. On the other hand, as the consumer side is approaching the Mid-Autumn Festival and the school season, the concentrated consumption increases. From the statistical data of the past four years, the price difference between the low spot price of eggs in June and the high price in September is between 1.19 yuan and 1.5 yuan per jin. At present, the spot price of eggs in Shandong, Henan and other places is 2.8yuan / jin. Based on the closing price of the main 1609 eggs on the 15th, the spot price is 1.05 yuan / jin lower than the futures price, which is basically within the range of reasonable price difference. At the same time, the price difference between this price and egg delivery monthly contract is 1606 yuan / jin, which is similar to the delivery cost, indicating that the price converges well.

Egg futures 1606 and 1609 contracts reflect the market expectations of spot prices in June and September 2016, respectively, and their price trends reflect different market supply and demand, with no obvious correlation. The spot stock period of the egg contract delivered in September is usually after mid-late August, and it is difficult to carry out spot arbitrage in the current June. Therefore, it is unreasonable to measure the hedging effect by comparing the current spot price with the September contract price. Investor Zhang Shukun said that due to the high temperature in July and August, the Hough value, which measures the freshness of eggs, decreased very fast, and eggs were generally sold quickly in the current period. There may be a tight balance between supply and demand in the egg market by September. The September contract of the egg futures market maintained a relatively high level, which is also a reflection of the price discovery function of the futures market.

It is reported that the egg futures 1703 contract will introduce a new delivery system. The new delivery system has three main characteristics: first, it takes advantage of the characteristics of egg production, sales and storage, introduces a monthly daily delivery system, and increases the delivery mode of cars and plates, so that industrial customers can conveniently put forward delivery at any time, which will greatly increase the amount of eggs available for delivery and reduce the cost of egg delivery. The second is to shorten the validity period of the warehouse receipt to meet the buyer's demand for the freshness of the goods to the maximum extent. Third, on the basis of the existing 10 contract months, the July and August contracts are added to further ensure the continuity of the contract and better meet the hedging needs of customers. At the same time, the epidemic treatment process was optimized. The firm is pressing ahead with the development and testing of the revision of contract rules.