Layer industry 2016 wind and rain is still the same, when the spring of 2017?

With the rapid development of the laying hen breeding industry, the stock of laying hens has reached an unprecedented peak by May 2016. what will this historical peak mean? What impact will it have on the industry? Here, I rely on more than ten years of experience in the industry to make a bold comment to friends in the industry.

As a result of the craze for entering chickens, the full-load production of breeding hens in the hatchery has led to the addition of some unqualified breeding eggs and molting chickens to the extended production sequence:

1. Compared with the April from November to the next year, there is a normal alternating period of stubble change. during this period, except for several large-scale poultry companies with full capacity production, only 70% of the other factories are able to hatch normally. Normal use for 420 to 450 days is basically eliminated. However, the scenario in 2016 is very different. In addition to the supply of normal incubation enterprises falling short of demand, even some free-range breeding chickens that do not meet the desired standards are involved in the busy tide of supplying chicks. Not only did not eliminate the breeder chickens beyond their age on time, some continue to molt and use older breeder chickens, and some even cross with commercial white chickens to form fertilized eggs. These chicks, whether they are bred in the next few months, Or laying eggs will bring all kinds of trouble, and do not rule out many disadvantages such as poor disease resistance, low production performance and so on.

2. The extension of the time for entering chicks means that the rapid expansion of the market stock column, the incubation of normal breeding farms, and the intervention of feathering chickens have accelerated the excess negative pressure of the industry; up to June 5, 2016, the normal hatching of orderly contracts, the indirect formation of the misjudgment of the existing stock column will make laying hen enterprises and blindly expanding breeders taste the bitter fruit.

Young chicken is a market system formed independently for laying hens in recent years, and because it is a new and expanding industry, it has many disadvantages and hidden dangers.

1. Young chicken, as an intermediate hub in this industry, has the necessity of its existence, which is why brooding quickly forms a single system; 2. An illusion of imitation makes the bosses of young chicken enterprises endlessly expand and build new buildings. The pursuit of dominance. 3. The orderly fulfillment of the contract between December 2015 and May 2016 made the bosses of young chicken enterprises more optimistic about the future market, so that after June, even if there was no contract, they dared to carry out breeding and production. this kind of crazy entering and robbing chickens will plant a time bomb for the production of these young chicken farms.

The continuous profits of egg farms for two consecutive years have given practitioners more self-confidence and accelerated the pace of new construction and expansion. Similarly, driven by interests, the number of financial personnel involved in the industry has expanded rapidly:

1. For two consecutive years, it has been low in the first half of the year, and the rising market in the second half of the year has made practitioners think that this is the law of invariance. 2. Compared with other industries, the profit space of layer breeding in the past two years is indeed a worthy object of investment. therefore, people in the industry have intervened and brought in a large amount of capital, thus making the industry which does not have much resistance to market risk even worse.

The influence of various factors

1. Feed, corn is stable from the general trend in China, and the reason is that warehousing and inventory will be leaked. However, even if there is such "turnover grain", it is more than three years old, and its excessive use may only be used in industry. Feed may be out of reach. Therefore, reality will soon break the legend of corn price reduction, and corn price increase is an inevitable act.

2. Soybean meal, precisely because of the rapid expansion of the aquaculture industry, relies too much on protein raw materials, and the low crackdown of 2015 has reduced the output of domestic rapeseed meal, cottonseed meal and other protein raw materials by almost half, contributing to the rise of foreign protein raw materials. the increase is staggering. If soya beans and cypresses rise to 4000 yuan per ton and corn 2200 yuan, then the cost of synthetic feed will reach 2500 yuan. According to the conventional egg feed ratio at 2:1, the cost per ton of eggs is 5000 yuan. This proportion is only limited to the 180 to 350 days old of the best production performance of laying hens.

3. if wheat bran or other factors are also driven by linkage factors, they will also face a sharp rise. Coupled with the influence of a variety of force majeure factors, for every 5% reduction in laying performance, there will be a gap of 263 yuan per 10, 000 laying hens, and the laying rate will drop to 75%, and breeding can not continue, and the cost of eggs now only stays on the basis of feed conversion. Even if you calculate 10, 000 layers a day, you lose 882 yuan and persist for 200 days, that's 176400 yuan! The longer the time, the more compensation, labor, electricity and electricity are not included, medicine and death Amoy are not among them.

4. Adult chickens at the age of 150 days are priced at 27 yuan each, and even if they are eliminated at 5 yuan per jin after 500 days, the data is (27X10000-5X4X9000)

During the period of labor, health care, water and electricity, etc. (person 3500X12 + hydropower 26000 + health care 20000)

Elimination minus breeding, plus labor, health care, water and electricity, will probably cost another 178000 yuan. This kind of budget is divided into two. If the egg rate of 10,000 laying hens has a peak egg rate for all 500 days, 178000 yuan will be lost alone, and if the egg rate is reduced to less than 80%, you can lose 354400 yuan.

5. The rapidly expanding number of stock columns will be the cause of the decline in egg prices. The trend can no longer be stopped, so we can only do some basic subdivision to provide reference for colleagues in the industry.

On the basis of the above points, combined with the existing storage column and per capita consumption capacity, I have a bold conclusion.

The price of eggs will fall sharply after June 7, 2016. it can be divided into 5600 / ton in early July and 5200 / ton in early August, and the lowest will occur from October to December. The crisis will give laying hens a new shuffling stage, and at this time, young chickens will also enter a new shuffling stage, leaving no room to say that 1/3 of their peers will be completely eliminated this time!

Not scaremongering, there is an account that can be calculated carefully: since July 2016, the price of soybean meal is 3500-4000 / ton, corn is 2200 / ton, and wheat bran is 1500 / ton. Do a calculation to take a look at the feed cost, combined with the expected egg price market, what will be a conclusion?

Look at 16 wind and rain is still the same, hope 17 spring in when? It is such a storm that can put this industry on the right track in a few years' time! This low operating cycle began in mid-June and is expected to pick up gradually in May 2017 according to feeding cost, egg conversion, epidemic situation, mentality and several analyses.