2019 the impact of the latest El Ni ñ o news on China has led to a rise in the prices of agricultural products and fruits.

Under the attack of continuous torrential rain in the south, the flood situation in Hubei, Anhui and other places intensified. Industry insiders said that heavy rainfall has caused great losses to the planting and breeding industries in Hubei and Anhui. On the one hand, floods block traffic, on the other hand, the risk of epidemic situation increases. It is expected that for some time in the future, with the help of floods, the prices of some agricultural products such as live pigs will continue to rise.

Since the beginning of this year, the global extreme weather has hit, and the weather speculation in the agricultural futures market appears frequently. According to the latest report released by the Commodity data Merchant Business Society, the agricultural and sideline product index experienced a two-month dormant period in the first half of 2016. Among them, the most eye-catching performance is the feed sector, meal products rose across the board, soybean meal, rapeseed meal are more than 20%. Yesterday, due to the rapid rise in agricultural prices, rapeseed meal, soybean meal and other varieties began to pullback. Industry insiders expect that despite the possibility of a correction in short-term agricultural prices, the next rise is still the main theme.

Planting and aquaculture affected by    flood

The "small bull market" of    agricultural products has emerged, but weather disasters are still rampant. According to the statistics of relevant institutions, as of July 3, 1192 counties in 26 provinces, autonomous regions, cities and cities across the country had been hit by floods, affecting an area of 2942 thousand hectares of crops, with a direct loss of about 50.6 billion yuan.

   according to the latest survey of domestic well-known agricultural product data merchant Zhihua data, the rainfall is ferocious, many floods broke out in Hubei and Anhui provinces, many pig farms were flooded, most fish ponds were washed out, and the losses of farmers are incalculable. Some farmers in Hubei and Anhui reported that due to the ferocious torrential rain, the pig farms were flooded seriously, and the piglets' resistance was low, and they drowned in case of water.

   "due to transportation disruption, the transportation of fat pigs in Hubei and Anhui disaster areas is currently restricted by the production areas, and the supply of fat pigs in the markets in central and eastern China may be insufficient. After the disaster, pigs are concentrated in fencing, and the weight of fattened pigs is larger and heavier, and the quality of pigs is uneven. " Yao Guiling, a researcher at Zhihua data, said that fat pigs soaked by floods are easy to get sick or even die. Coupled with the current humid air and suitable temperature, germs are easy to survive depending on water and air, which can easily lead to the transmission and spread of the epidemic. The flood will be negative for short-term pig prices and good for medium-and long-term pig prices.

According to   , in Huanggang and Xishui, Hubei, the flood seriously damaged the road traffic to Huangshi and Wuhan. 70-80% of the farmers near lakes and rivers are flooded or washed, and 30% of those farther away from the rivers and lakes are flooded. Most farmers choose to raise fat pigs around the Dragon Boat Festival. At present, there are no medium-weight pigs in pig houses. Most of them went out at the end of July and August. Due to traffic damage and the off-season of acquisitions, fewer pigs are harvested at present.

Short-term pressure on the price of    agricultural products

   recently, affected by weather factors, the domestic agricultural product market investment heat up, prices are also rising rapidly, especially soybean meal, rapeseed meal. Wang Xianjun, a futures researcher at British University, said that at present, there are two main factors affecting the price of soybean meal, one is the stock of live pigs, and the other is the expected production of American beans and South American soybeans.

  , according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, the stock of live pigs increased by 0.6% month-on-month in April, and sows increased by 0.3%. However, pork prices continue to rise and break through 20 yuan / kg, which leads to the impact of farmers' active fencing behavior will also appear in the second half of the year.

   industry insiders said that due to the recent heavy rainfall in the south, China's soybean production is bound to decline. According to relevant data, as of July 1, the soybean inventory in domestic ports is 6.50534 million tons, which will lead to China's demand for soybeans in the second half of the year will depend on foreign imports, which is bound to increase the situation that supply exceeds demand in the soybean market. "the price of live pigs lags behind the price of soybean meal, so the supporting effect of farmers' behavior on the price of soybean meal will be reflected in the second half of the year." Wang Xianjun said.

   in fact, not only in China, the impact of the global market on La Nina climate is expected to continue to rise. According to the US Climate Prediction Center (CPC), La Nina weather will have an adverse impact on soybean growth in the United States and South America, and soybean production reduction is inevitable. Industry insiders said that at present, the price of soybean meal is already at an all-time high, and it is necessary to guard against the adjustment risks brought by the rapid rise.