The price of pigs has come down, some are happy and some are sad.

Since the beginning of this year, pork prices have remained high for a long time, and people's "vegetable baskets" are also heavy, and everyone says they can't afford to eat. However, recent experts predict that it will be easy for ordinary people to carry "vegetable baskets" when pig prices fall in the second half of the year.

Since last year, pig prices have soared all the way, rising for 16 months in a row, but due to multiple factors, they began to decline after the Dragon Boat Festival this year, and the high price of pigs has dropped obviously. at present, the average price of live pigs in the country is still close to 20 yuan / kg.

From the consumer side, at present, the price of some beef and mutton on the market is lower than that of pork, and pork consumption is restrained and replaced. In some vegetable markets, no one is interested in pork stalls, so the stall owner simply sleeps at his desk. Coupled with the advent of hot weather, the pork consumption has entered the off-season, and the school holiday in July has reduced concentrated consumption.

From the perspective of pork supply, farmers in the early stage overloaded the hurdle, and generally had a plan to grab the high point of pig prices from May to August, with more pigs weighing more than 300 jin at present; at the same time, the recent rise in feed prices and the rising cost of hurdling led to a concentration of hurdles; the average weight increased significantly, which also increased the supply of pork to a certain extent.

At the same time, recent data released by relevant agencies show that the amount of pork imported in May was 163500 tons, an increase of 37.86% from the previous month and a sharp increase of 202% over the same period last year. 560000 tons of pork were imported from January to May, and imports in the first five months exceeded those for the whole of 2014. Imports are expected to reach 180000 tons in June and 1.2 million tons for the whole of 2016. The concentration and large quantity of imported meat will also affect the price trend of domestic live pigs and pork market.

At the other end of the industrial chain, the high price of pigs has led to widespread losses in the slaughtering industry, and many small and medium-sized slaughtering enterprises have even closed down. In order to reduce costs and protect profits, meat production enterprises use a large number of imported pork instead of domestic meat. Coupled with the recent sluggish pork consumption, slaughtering has also declined. At present, the price of pigs weighing more than 300 jin in the live pig market is lower than that of standard pigs, the inflection point of supply and demand appears, and the pricing power of live pig market may be transferred.

The head of a statistics department said that meat prices reached a recent peak in May, 1-2 months later than normal, which is due to the misleading role of early public opinion. In fact, meat prices stopped falling in March last year and rebounded in April. According to the rules of the market, they should fall back in March and April this year. But in early March, a piece of data on the "year-on-year and month-on-month decline in the stock of fertile sows" was made public, seriously affecting the trend of the pig and pork market.

The person in charge also said that according to the law of the market, after the meat price stopped falling and rebounded in March and April last year, the stock of fertile sows would stop falling in June at the latest, even if there were not enough backup sows at that time. At the very least, it will delay the elimination of fertile sows, and its stock will increase by the end of last year.

The above official also said that in some large farming groups, the body weight of wool pigs has dropped from 120 kg a month ago to 110 kg or even 109 kg recently. Free-range farmers, small and medium-sized farms have been "set" again.

Feng Yonghui, chief analyst of the China Pig early warning Network, suggested that the broad masses of pig farmers must not die during this period, such as the so-called high of 22 yuan / kg or even 24 yuan / kg predicted by some individuals and institutions, and should be listed in a timely manner according to the actual situation.