Mung bean production reduction caused by extreme weather analyst: it is difficult for prices to rise

Beijing, September 14 (Reporter Liu Yuying) according to China Rural Voice "three Rural China" report, mung beans are the best seller throughout the summer. Now that White Dew has passed, as the weather turns cooler, mung beans from the north are on the market. It is understood that the producing area of Inner Mongolia is affected by drought, the yield of mung bean may be reduced, and the quality will also be affected.

We still remember that six years ago, hot money used to stir-fry mung beans, and the price soared from 5 yuan per jin to 12 yuan per jin. After the hot money dissipated, the price of mung bean fell sharply. But the output of mung beans in the north has declined this year. Will the price go up?

Recently, several places in Taiping Township Village, Tuquan County, Inner Mongolia have been hit by hail, and the mung bean land has been seriously damaged. Han Xuefeng, secretary of the party branch of Sandaogou Village, Taiping Township, said that more than 1,000 mu of mung beans have been affected in the village and are busy with harvesting recently.

After a hailstorm, our village was affected by 15 million mu, and it is difficult to sell the damaged mung beans.

According to statistics, ten thousand mu of mung beans failed in Taiping Township this time. Sun Mengmeng, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, said that May is the time for concentrated sowing of mung beans, and the severe drought in Inner Mongolia this year has delayed the sowing of mung beans. From August to September, the yield of new mung beans in many places was affected by the early drought, and since the beginning of September, most parts of Inner Mongolia and the three eastern provinces continued to rain, even hail weather. At present, it is the season when mung beans are beginning to be harvested and listed one after another, but this year's climate is really too much for local farmers.

Sun Mengmeng: the drought is serious in most parts of Jilin, Inner Mongolia, and Heilongjiang, resulting in a decline in mung bean production, with a normal annual output of about 150 jin, but this year's output is only about 100 jin, but the quality of the new grain is better. Since mung beans entered the harvest period at the end of August, there has been a large-scale continuous rainfall in Inner Mongolia and the three eastern provinces. Now it has been raining for half a month. Due to the long rainfall time, mung beans have appeared blistering beans, water rust and other phenomena. This year, the standard supply of sprouts and beans is few, and the supply of commercial mung beans is limited.

According to analyst Sun Mengmeng, mung beans are generally on the market from the end of August to September 20. Due to continuous rain in the producing areas this year, mung beans have not yet dried, and the harvest time has been postponed to the end of September. At the same time, the price of ordinary mung beans has been postponed to the end of September when demand is cold. Even if there is a reduction in production, it is difficult for prices to rise significantly.

Sun Mengmeng: due to natural disasters, the quality of mung beans is poor, and there are few standard supplies of sprouts. It is expected that the price of high-quality sprouts will rise in the later stage, while before the Spring Festival, mung beans are in off-season demand for commercial mung beans. This year, the quality is poor, and it is difficult for commodity mung bean prices to rise.

Looking back at the overall trend of mung beans this year, the price did not rise in the summer of the traditional peak season. Analyst Sun Mengmeng believes that this is due to the increase in summer goods and climate this year, the overall demand for mung beans is lower than last year, and the price is lower than the same period last year. Mung beans are in a sluggish season.

Sun Mengmeng: from June to September every year is the peak season for mung bean demand, and prices have risen, but since 2015, mung bean prices have fallen instead of rising. In 2015, mung bean prices dropped from 5.05 yuan / jin in June to 4.1 yuan / jin at the end of August, a drop of 18.81%. The mung bean market is even more abnormal this year. Mung bean prices have been low and stable since June.

In addition, the reason for the reduction in mung bean prices in recent years is also related to imported Myanmar mung beans. In 2010, low-priced Myanmar mung beans entered the Chinese market, which had an impact on domestic mung beans, and progress squeezed the room for domestic mung bean prices to rise.

Sun Mengmeng: in the past two years, due to the low price of Myanmar mung beans, more and more domestic merchants have purchased Myanmar mung beans, resulting in a reduction in the share of domestic mung beans. At present, the proportion of domestic and imported mung beans is 7:3.

So, in view of this market situation, what kind of management strategy should farmers adopt? According to Zhuang Chuang analysts predict that the price of new season mung beans is still not high, it is recommended that high-quality mung beans can be a small amount of inventory, poor quality can be bought and sold.

Sun Mengmeng: for the most basic-level growers, planting should be rational. When mung beans rise and fall sharply, they should not plant too much or too little, and they should also grasp the prices of miscellaneous grain substitutes, such as sorghum and beans. For grain merchants, they should carefully participate in market activities and purchase an appropriate amount to avoid the risk caused by excessive inventory. At the same time, we should establish cooperative relations with manufacturers and broaden sales channels.