Wheat prices rise: food sources are tight. New wheat prices generally rise, and the price difference between Uppu and Uppu wheat is small.

Driven by the rise in the price of Pumai, the current price difference of Uppmai is on the small side, and traders are buying it at the right time. At the same time, the demand for rotation replenishment in some areas has increased, driving the overall price rise of Youmai. However, affected by the decline in international wheat prices, China's wheat imports have increased. According to customs data, China imported 347700 tons of wheat in August, an increase of 22 percent over the previous month, and an increase of 8.8 percent from January to August, an increase of 20.4 percent over the same period last year.

The supply of grain is tight and the price of new wheat has generally risen.

This week, the entry price of new wheat flour enterprises with moisture less than 12.5% and unit weight more than 770g / liter in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province is about 2440 yuan / ton, Jinan in Shandong Province is about 2420 yuan / ton, and Zhengzhou in Henan Province is about 2320 yuan / ton. The entry price of new wheat with moisture within 13.5% and bulk weight above 770g / liter in Suzhou, Anhui Province is about 2320 yuan / ton, and that in Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province is about 2320 yuan / ton. Most areas are up 20 yuan / ton from last week and 40 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month.

The price of wheat in the main producing areas increased significantly in September, mainly for three reasons. First, driven by the effect of the Mid-Autumn Festival, the major milling enterprises prepared goods for the Mid-Autumn Festival, the operating rate increased significantly, and the demand for purchasing wheat increased significantly. Second, under the background of the decline in wheat output and quality this year, the number of wheat purchases in the market has exceeded that of the same period last year, and the acquisition speed is faster than that of the same period last year, effectively pushing up the price of wheat. As of September 15, the country has acquired about 27.7 million tons of wheat in the supporting market, up from 20.04 million tons in the same period last year. Third, due to the promotion of market acquisitions, the supply of food in the market is obviously tighter than that of last year, traders are more bullish, and grain holdings are bullish, which also supports wheat prices.

The author predicts that wheat prices will still rise steadily in the later period, but there will be a weak pattern of strong wheat flour due to the stable price of wheat flour. Under the influence of strong wheat and weak powder, the operating pressure of milling enterprises is increasing, and the profit of the flour industry is meager.

As a result, the operating rate of milling enterprises has declined, wheat procurement has slowed down, and the rise in wheat prices will also slow down. It should be noted that the state usually announces the minimum purchase price for wheat for the next year in October, which will have a great impact on wheat prices in the later stage and requires continuous attention.

Be cautious in purchasing UPP wheat price difference is on the small side

This week, the entry price of wheat "Gaoyou 2018" is about 2650 yuan / ton in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, 2590 yuan / ton in Heze, Shandong Province, and 2590 yuan / ton in Xinxiang, Henan Province. Zhengzhou, Henan Province, about 2560 yuan / ton; "Jinan 17" Heze, Shandong Province, about 2520 yuan / ton, Jiangsu Nanjing 2540 yuan / ton. The above prices have all increased by about 60 yuan / ton since the beginning of September.

Boosted by the Mid-Autumn Festival effect, the price of Pumai rose significantly in September, and the price difference of Uppu wheat narrowed to 100 yuan / ton at one time, while the price difference of Uppu wheat was basically stable at about 300 yuan / ton in September last year. The price of high-quality wheat has remained stable in the early stage. one is that the yield and quality of common wheat have declined this year due to the weather, while the production areas of high-quality wheat have not been greatly affected, and the yield and quality are better than last year. Second, the purchasing competition in the high-quality wheat market is not as fierce as that in the ordinary wheat market. In the ordinary wheat market, in addition to supporting the market to purchase and occupy grain sources, flour mills, some feed enterprises, grain depots and traders are also competing to purchase grain sources.

In contrast, the main buyers of high-quality wheat market are mainly flour-making enterprises and grain depots and traders. Coupled with the general losses of high-quality wheat traders last year, they are more cautious about purchasing high-quality wheat this year.

Digest the stock of flour prices remain stable    this week, Hebei Shijiazhuang flour enterprises special flour ex-factory price of about 3020 yuan / ton, Shandong Jinan about 3000 yuan / ton, Henan Zhengzhou about 2980 yuan / ton, Jiangsu Xuzhou about 2980 yuan / ton, Suzhou, Anhui about 2980 yuan / ton, basically the same as last week. At present, the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday has passed, the operating rate of milling enterprises has been adjusted back. Monitoring shows that the operating rate of milling enterprises is about 57% this week, down 1 percentage point from last week.

In September, the major flour mills prepared goods for the Mid-Autumn Festival, all increased the operating rate, flour output increased, fierce competition, flour enterprises in order to protect the market did not raise the price of flour. At present, the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday has passed, the operating rate of flour enterprises has been adjusted back, but due to a large number of stocks before the festival, the need to focus on digesting inventory after the festival, flour ex-factory prices have no signs of increase for the time being, and will remain stable in the short term.

There is still a week to go before the National Day holiday, and it is estimated that it is unlikely that flour prices will rise before the National Day holiday. However, after the "National Day" holiday, the inventory of flour enterprises has been basically digested, and driven by the rise in wheat prices, flour prices will rise at that time.

Guarantee profit the price of wheat bran powder will be raised.

At present, the price of wheat is rising steadily, while the price of flour remains stable. At the same time, the weather is getting cooler, the preservation time of secondary powder and wheat bran has been prolonged, and the prices of secondary powder and wheat bran have been raised in order to ensure profits.

Monitoring shows that the current ex-factory price of wheat bran is about 1180 yuan / ton in Jinan, Shandong Province, 1200 yuan / ton in Zhengzhou, Henan Province, 1180 yuan / ton in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, 1200 yuan / ton in Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province, and 1210 yuan / ton in Suzhou, Anhui Province. all increased by 20,40 yuan / ton compared with last week. The ex-factory price of secondary powder in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province is about 1640 yuan / ton, Zhengzhou in Henan Province is about 1600 yuan / ton, Jinan in Shandong Province is about 1570 yuan / ton, and Guangzhou in Guangdong Province is about 1740 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton in most areas compared with last week.

Due to the rise in wheat prices, the price of flour remained stable, and the prices of secondary flour and wheat bran increased, the theoretical milling and processing profits of milling enterprises basically remained stable. According to the monitoring of the National Grain and Oil Information Center, on September 21, the theoretical flour processing profits of Hebei Shijiazhuang flour enterprises were-49 yuan / ton, Jinan, Shandong, and Zhengzhou, Henan, were-48 yuan / ton, and 54 yuan / ton, with an average loss of about 15 yuan / ton. it's basically the same as last week.