It earns millions this year, but will it lose money to raise pigs next year?

From the second half of 2015 to the first half of 2016, spring will be ushered in, and the breeding profit will continue to rise. At the end of May and the beginning of June 2016, the breeding profit will theoretically reach CNY 1000/head. If the farmers do not consider their own labor, the pigpen depreciation and the pen pressure, the breeding profit will reach CNY 1500/head, and 100 pigs will be sold for 150,000 - 180,000 yuan, which is far better than working. Raising sows can earn 5000 yuan per litter, even 7000 yuan per litter. The profit of breeding and breeding is much higher than the historical level. At present, the pig price in the fourth quarter of 2016 is still at a high level as a whole, with an estimated range of 7.8-9.2 yuan/catty. Farmers still have rich profits, especially when the corn price in North China is expected to drop to 1300-1400 yuan/ton and the feed cost drops sharply.

Rich breeding profits, according to previous years pig price cycle calculation, this year in the fourth quarter of pig supply significantly increased, prices fell, even a short period of rapid decline, farmers can not make money, and with the passage of time breeding began to lose money. Due to the strengthening of environmental protection requirements in this round of pig cycle, a large number of post-50s and post-60s farmers withdrew, and the recovery of pig breeding was obviously slower than that in the previous cycle. However, we also need to pay attention to the fact that the whole economic environment is not optimistic, and too high breeding profits will still stimulate the expansion of breeding scale, especially in the current large-scale breeding group, crazy expansion, 500,000 or 1 million breeding bases will be built and put into production for six consecutive times, and pork consumption will slow down, the pig price will rise in a large cycle and end in June, and the later period will continue to fall, and the high and low points of pig prices will gradually decrease.

Comprehensive evaluation shows that in the fourth quarter of 2016, when the feed cost is low, the breeding profit is still relatively good. The breeding profit is 200-500 yuan/head, excluding the depreciation of self-owned labor and equipment, which can reach 500-800 yuan/head. However, with the second quarter of 2017, the pig price falls below 7 yuan/catty, and moves towards 6 yuan/catty or even lower level. The management deviation farmers do not rule out the breeding loss, and the farmers need to pay more attention to risk control.