2017 Analysis of the market price of traditional Chinese medicine: will the price of traditional Chinese medicine rise or fall in 2017?

As the Spring Festival is approaching, the markets of the main producing areas of traditional Chinese medicine should be ready to close for a rest these two days. Our reporter learned that at present, with the exception of the lotus pond market in Chengdu, all three of the four major Chinese medicine markets have been suspended, and trading will not be resumed until after the 15th day of the first lunar month.

This winter, the market price of traditional Chinese medicine has soared for several months in a row, until the market is closed, it is still at a high level. Will there be any change in the price of traditional Chinese medicine when the four major markets open later this year? Will the price of traditional Chinese medicine rise or fall in 2017?

With the Spring Festival approaching, dealers in the four major traditional Chinese medicine markets began to prepare for going home for the Spring Festival. The reporter learned that after the 20th of the 12th lunar month, the major Chinese herbal medicine trading markets and small markets of producing areas were closed one after another, and logistics stopped. Chen Houshang, a seller, said that at present, Chinese herbal medicines on the market are mainly supplied to local pharmacies and clinics in small batches, and occasionally citizens come to buy traditional Chinese medicine for Spring Festival gifts.

Chen Houshang: according to our time regulations, the market will not be closed until the 29th day of the lunar calendar, but now most of those businesses have gone home. Now basically no one, now basically some people will buy some traditional Chinese medicine gifts. They will come to buy a little more than usual.

Since December last year, the price of traditional Chinese medicine has shown a sharp upward trend, with the price of Codonopsis pilosula and other medicinal materials rising by more than 100%. Chen Houshang said that at present, the prices of most varieties of traditional Chinese medicine are still high and stable.

Chen Houshang: now the drug prices are still stable at the previous price, and now the goods can not be delivered, so they are all in a stable stage.

The reporter learned that at present, the unified price of Shandong real estate Salvia miltiorrhiza is still 10-11 yuan per kilogram, Gansu real estate Codonopsis pilosula 52-53 yuan per kilogram, Shanxi Chaihu 50-52 yuan / jin, Anhui real estate Radix Paeoniae Alba 10-11 yuan / kg. So, will the market price of traditional Chinese medicine change after the year? Chen Houshang believes that if there is no abnormal weather, the prices of major Chinese herbal medicines should not fluctuate too much.

Chen Houshang: this depends on which variety, as well as the weather. If the weather is bad, it will go up again. The price should be about the same if the weather is normal.

After the festival, the Chinese medicine market is up or down, for this issue, Zhuochuang analyst Zhang Bin also gave his own opinion. He believes that after the market opens on the fifteenth day of the first month, the market price of traditional Chinese medicine will not immediately rise, but in the later stage, with the spring stock, the prices of some kinds of traditional Chinese medicine will be raised.

Zhang Bin: the overall market of the pharmaceutical market is improving this year. The prices of most real estate medicinal materials have risen to a reasonable level, and the volume is sufficient temporarily. Therefore, Zhuo Chuang believes that the possibility of price increases immediately after the opening of the Spring Festival market will not be too great, but in the later stage, with the advent of spring stock preparation by pharmaceutical companies, some production cuts or early business investment in pressed goods varieties are still possible.

Zhang Bin told reporters that from 2013 to 2015, the market of traditional Chinese medicine has been in the doldrums. 2016 can be counted as the year of its recovery. This period of recovery will continue in the next 2-3 years.

Zhang Bin: in recent years, natural disasters such as steady waterlogging and drought have reduced the production of many varieties of traditional Chinese medicine. Coupled with the low profits for several consecutive years, farmers in the producing areas have changed their planting investment structure, resulting in a significant reduction in planting. On the other hand, the purchasing quantity and frequency of pharmaceutical factories have increased significantly. Since August, it has gradually entered the traditional peak season of buying and selling, with demand support and a marked improvement in the market. Therefore, Zhuo Chuang believes that although it is unlikely that prices will rise at the opening of the market, signs of recovery may be gradually obvious at the beginning of next spring.

Although traditional Chinese medicine may usher in a good day of 2-3 years, analyst Zhang Bin still wants to remind growers not to blindly expand planting when they hear the news of price increases. The majority of growers should seize this good year, increase the variety of planting, and improve the quality of products.

Zhang Bin: growers should pay close attention to the market situation, do not blindly expand or follow the trend, rational operation. And multiple varieties should be planted according to local conditions, diversified development, to avoid the huge risk caused by a single investment. In addition, scientific and standardized management, standardized planting bases and professional planting production cooperatives should be developed to improve quality and increase competitive advantage.