The reasons for the rise of garlic prices in 2016 and the Analysis and Forecast of garlic prices in 2017

Throughout the agricultural market in 2016, it can be said that there are several joys and sorrows. The prices of some agricultural products are rising all the way, and the market is bullish, while others have no interest, so it is difficult to get rid of the dilemma of unsalable market.

Why is the agricultural market so unpredictable over the past year? Who dominates the ups and downs of agricultural prices? "look at the Market" launched the year-end special plan "Agricultural products Market 2016" to count the changes in the market of major agricultural products across the country in 2016 and forecast price trends in 2017.

After the sharp rise in garlic prices in 2010, "garlic is ruthless" seems to have gradually faded out of people's sight. But since January, garlic prices have risen all the way, making a comeback and surpassing the 2010 peak. The price of garlic in producing areas has reached 6.65 yuan per jin, which can be called the highest price in ten years. After distribution and transportation, the garlic in the hands of consumers is really unaffordable!

So, what are the factors behind the crazy rise in garlic prices in 2016? Can garlic prices return to normal in 2017?

At the Nanguan vegetable Market in Shenmu County, Shaanxi Province, the reporter visited Hu Yongli, owner of the Wynn vegetable Wholesale Store. He and his wife have been engaged in vegetable wholesale here for 11 years. Hu Yongli told the reporter that the price of garlic this year really opened his eyes. It was the highest price of garlic he had ever encountered. At present, the price of garlic in the store is 9 yuan per jin, while the lowest price this year is 6.50 yuan.

Reporter: how much is a jin of garlic?

Hu Yongli: nine yuan.

Reporter: how much did you sell at the cheapest time?

Hu Yongli: it's six and a half yuan in summer.

Interviewer: when did it start to rise?

Hu Yongli: autumn.

Liu Xiuhong, who has the same feeling as Hu Yongli, a shopkeeper in Shaanxi Province, is at the farmers' market in Guanghan City, Sichuan Province. She said she was surprised by the rapid rise in garlic prices this year. Garlic prices have been on an upward trend since January at the beginning of the year. At present, it has reached 8.50 yuan per jin, and the sustained high price has been close to a whole year.

Liu Xiuhong: if the purchase price is high, it must be expensive. With the market going, if the price is expensive, the price will be expensive. If the price falls later, we will still have a low price.

Whether it's $9 or $8, breaking through $6 is a high price. The dealers have made a lot of money at such a high price. The reporter found in the interview that this is not the case. According to them, garlic is bought at a price of 8.45 yuan and sold at a price of 8.67 yuan.

How do garlic farmers in the producing areas feel about the high price of garlic this year? The reporter interviewed Mr. Xu, a garlic farmer in Jinxiang County, who said that his income from growing garlic in 2013 and 2014 was capital preservation, and his family's income did change this year because of the high price of garlic.

Mr. Xu: since New Year's Day came up in 2016, high-price operation, more than 7 yuan, garlic farmers can not sell so much money, garlic farmers can sell five or six yuan is also good, the highest time 6 yuan.

Jinxiang County, the hometown of garlic in China, is the main production base of garlic in China. The average annual planting of garlic is more than 500,000 mu, and the average annual output is about 1 million tons. According to Yang Guihua, executive director of Jinxiang garlic Industry Information Association, the price of garlic has been rising since the beginning of this year, and has risen by more than 80% so far.

Yang Guihua: the highest price in 10 years, the last high price in October 2010, garlic exceeded 6 yuan is a high price. The highest this time is 6.50 yuan, which is 6.7 yuan. In mid-November, garlic went on sale in May and June, which was the lowest point. It started at 4.50 yuan. It continued to rise in November, with few pullbacks, and rose from June to mid-November.

As for the most fundamental reason for the rise in garlic prices this year, Yang Guihua, executive director of Jinxiang garlic Industry Information Association, told reporters that garlic cultivation in various producing areas mainly suffered losses in extreme weather, resulting in a 20% reduction in total garlic production this year compared with last year, resulting in a reduction in inventory.

Yang Guihua said that the size of the garlic stock in the cold storage determines the supply. September 1 is the time when the cold storage garlic is put into storage, and the cold storage garlic will be supplied to the market until the new garlic is put on the market the following year. The storage volume of Jinxiang County was 1.54 million tons in September last year, but it has dropped to 1.25 million tons this year.

Yang Guihua: in the extreme weather this year, garlic has decreased and the stock is low. judging from the inventory, our stock of garlic was 1.54 million tons last year and only 1.25 million tons this year, which is obviously less than 300,000 tons. This proportion is not small. This is still the main reason for the small supply. In the final analysis, garlic cultivation is still the relationship between supply and demand.

The price of garlic is so crazy in 2016, what will be the price of garlic in the coming 2017? Will the upward trend continue? People in the industry generally believe that the price of garlic in 2017 will be much lower than that in 2016. On the one hand, the state is regulating, on the other hand, the statistics of garlic planting area this year show that the planting area is more than 20% larger than that of last year, and the high price makes garlic farmers gain great benefits, which will greatly stimulate their enthusiasm to grow garlic. Mr. Xu, a garlic farmer, said that not only the main producing areas such as Shandong, Henan and Jiangsu have increased, but the area of Yunnan garlic will also be expanded.

Mr. Xu: there are many kinds of garlic. Next year's garlic will be cheaper. Not only do I grow more, but there are also many species in the main producing areas and non-major producing areas. As a whole, the garlic will be cheaper next year, and it will not be worth that much.

The sharp rise and fall in prices is a great harm to the garlic industry, and garlic farmers do not expect a roller coaster. In Yang Guihua's view, due to the lack of authoritative information release platform, farmers do not have a comprehensive understanding of information and can only plant blindly, and all localities should strengthen the construction of agricultural product information platform.

Yang Guihua: there is no authoritative release of information, a lot of information is not true, and there is no information release organization supervised by relevant departments. This is a relatively deficient place. Now, who can say and who will do how much garlic there is in the national cold storage? If the inventory is large, the price of garlic will go down, and if the inventory is small, the price will rise. This information is very important. Relying solely on the strength of an association is not enough, we should increase the intensity of garlic information industry, integration is completely possible.