Do 2017 kinds of chili peppers make money? the price of dried chili peppers is high. Farmers should not follow suit in planting.

Original title: high price of dried pepper operation analyst: do not follow the trend of planting

Last month, after garlic skyrocketed out of control, the price of dried chili peppers also turned red, and the purchase price even exceeded the historical peak of 7 yuan per jin, Rural Voice of China reported. The attractive price has also attracted a lot of capital, and the acquirers are busy with a large number of acquisitions, storage and preservation, hoping to get a bigger surprise.

However, in December, the "spicy" fever, which has been a high fever, began to go down, and the price of dried chili peppers also fell from the high level of 7 yuan per catty, so why did the price of dried chili peppers rise first and then fall, and how long can the high price last this year?

In Linying County, Tahe City, Henan Province, Wu Zhong, a pepper grower, has been growing red peppers for seven or eight years. This year he planted 16 or 17 mu of red pepper, with a yield of 700 jin per mu. Originally, Wu Zhong was not optimistic about the market situation of dried chili peppers this year, but unexpectedly, the highest price of dried chili peppers this year broke through the historical extreme value of 7 yuan.

Wu Zhong: it was expected to be cheap. I encountered a natural disaster this year, mainly because of the rain and the bad chili peppers. The price was the highest in late November, and now the highest is 6.4 yuan per catty, which is lower than that in the previous period.

Wu Zhong told reporters that the purchase price of dried chili peppers exceeded 7 yuan per jin a month ago, which he did not expect. Although prices have fallen, they are still hugely profitable:

Wu Zhong: now it can be sold at this price of 6.45 yuan, because the pepper is not very dry at this time, and the price is OK.

Although the purchase price of dried chili peppers has fallen, the retail price of dried chili peppers on the market remains strong. At a vegetable retail store in Fengtai District, Beijing, the reporter found that the price of dried chili peppers here is still more than 20 yuan per jin:

Vendor: 3 yuan or two, this one is 5 yuan and 2 taels, it's always the same price.

Vendor: 3 yuan or two. I can give you a discount if you want more. If you want a jin, I'll give you 28 yuan, and the cheapest is 25 yuan.

Zhao Gongying, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said that the price of dried chili peppers this year can be said to be full of twists and turns:

Zhao Gongying: at the initial stage of listing, the price of dried chili went up all the way. Take the price of three cherry peppers in Jinxiang area of Shandong Province as an example, the price of three cherry peppers was 4.80 yuan / jin in early October, and the price rose to 7.30 yuan / jin in mid-November, up 52.0%. The unit price reached the highest level in nearly four years. After entering December, the price of dried pepper in the producing area fell rationally, and the rush for goods brought by the early "high fever" also weakened accordingly.

According to Zhao Gongying, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, the early price rise of chili peppers is mainly due to the imbalance between supply and demand. In August 2016, a high temperature of 35 degrees Celsius appeared in Shandong for many days in a row, affecting the fruit setting of chili peppers. Coupled with the continuous rainy weather in the later period, the yield of chili peppers was greatly reduced. It is understood that the yield of three cherry peppers per mu in Jinxiang, Shandong Province is 550-600 jin, a decrease of 23.33% compared with last year. The yield per mu in Hebei is about 400 jin, 35% less than last year, and 40.00% in some areas. The decline in production has attracted a lot of foreign capital into the pepper market. At the beginning of the dry pepper market, the production volume is small, and a large number of purchases by stockholders have led to a sharp rise in the price of dried pepper. When the price of dried chili peppers exceeded 7 yuan per jin, the situation changed:

Zhao Gongying: after the price of three cherry peppers in Jinxiang area of Shandong exceeded 7.0 yuan / jin, the storage cost of the depositors was higher than the psychological expectation, the consumption of dried peppers in the export and domestic wholesale market was slow, and the depositors gradually reduced their purchases. In the case of the continuous increase in the quantity of dried pepper in the producing area and the decrease in the purchase quantity of stockholders, the price of dried pepper has declined rationally under the situation of oversupply.

Zhao Gongying, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, said that there was a certain bubble in the early dry pepper market, and many people did not find out about the pepper market, and the situation of buying with the trend was widespread. At present, the price of dried chili peppers has dropped to a more rational price of 6.5 yuan per jin. She expects that the market of dried chili will still be weak in the future, and suggests that acquirers should be rational in investing in chili and should not rashly follow the trend and lead to damage to their interests.

Zhao Gongying: at present, the supply of dried chili peppers is still large. Hebei Jizhou, Baoding, Cangzhou, Tianjin Baodi, Ninghe area three cherry peppers are initially listed, Henan Linying, Xuchang and other areas consume half of chili peppers. Coupled with the recent gradual increase in the dryness of chili peppers, the willingness of farmers to sell goods is also strong, in the case of oversupply, the dry pepper market is still lack of positive factors, and it is expected that the price of dried peppers is still weak in the short term.

As for the vast number of red pepper growers, Zhao Gongying, an information analyst at Zhuochuang, also gave some advice:

Zhao Gongying: due to the high price of dried chili this year, farmers in various regions still have a strong intention to grow chili peppers. When the profits of crops such as corn and cotton are not ideal, the profits of growing chili peppers are still huge. It is estimated that the pepper planting area in 2017 will expand again on the basis of 2016. At that time, the contradiction between supply and demand will be highlighted, and the price of dried pepper may hit a new low. It is suggested that farmers should arrange planting plans reasonably, do not blindly expand the planting area and follow the trend.