Analysis of several factors influencing the trend of Pig Price in Spring Festival

Original title: spring Festival is the biggest "trap" for pig prices.

As long as there is a risk of error in predicting pig prices, there is a risk of being scolded, because pig prices can only be predicted (or guessed) based on known information, because we cannot influence the government's policy and do not know how much imported pork can be put in during the Spring Festival. I don't know if we will continue to demolish a large number of pig farms. Also can not let farmers concentrate on the column or press the column, these three are very important factors that affect the price of pigs. Here, only express personal opinion, remind: there are ups and downs in the pig market, reference should be cautious!

If we want to find out the price of pigs during the Spring Festival, we must first think about several questions:

First, is the number of sows really decreasing?

On December 25, the Ministry of Agriculture released information on pig stocks at 4000 monitoring sites in October 2016. In November, the stock of live pigs decreased by 0.6% from the previous month, 3.2% from the same period last year, and the stock of fertile sows decreased by 0.5% from the previous year, and 3.7% from the same period last year. It is said that, "so far, the number of fertile sows has continued to drop from 50.13 million to 36.84 million, a drop of 26.5%, a continuous decline to a record low." I have a lot of questions about this data:

1. Is this figure accurate?

The stock data of Chinese sows were not accurate in the past, and are even more inaccurate now. Because there is no subsidy for breeding sows, so no one is going to check the exact figures carefully. I have been visiting the market recently, and few people can tell the number of local stockpiles, even the leaders of the Animal Husbandry Bureau. Inaccurate figures, not only can not correctly guide production, but also may cause misleading.

2. Who will eliminate sows?

As we all know, this year is the most profitable year for raising pigs in history. if you breed and raise yourself, a fat pig can even earn 1500 yuan, and it is very common for a sow to earn 1-15000 yuan. In this case, even if the sow production performance is low, will anyone eliminate the sow? We're all normal people, but if it were me, I wouldn't.

3. Will demolition reduce sows?

Some people say that a lot of pig farms have been demolished this year. Yeah, that makes sense. The demolition will certainly affect the pig farm, but is it the pig house or the bone of the sow? If the pig farm is demolished, will the sows be killed as eliminated sows? Really? What's the price of eliminating sows? What is the price of breeding sows? If you sell it cheaply, someone will sell it. I don't believe in selling meat at such a high pig price. At least it won't be mainstream.

My judgment is: in theory, sow stock will not decrease sharply, because everyone will prolong the production life of sows, so it is impossible to eliminate so many sows after the sow price has soared.

Second, will the supply be reduced?

1. Will imported pork increase?

It is generally believed that supply will affect the price of pigs. However, this supply should include: the number of domestic immediate output + the number of imported pork = theoretical supply. The news we have heard is that pork imports are increasing, and there is even such news: "the first batch of pork products imported through the China-Europe train came from Germany, with a total of 21.9 tons, 1369 cases." This batch of frozen pork leaves from Nuremberg, Germany, via Poland, Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan. After entering the country through the Alashan pass, the frozen pork is transported directly to Chengdu with a journey of 12000 kilometers, which takes a total of 13 days. Compared with shipping, it can save more than 40 days. "

What does it mean? Imported pork has a new channel, faster and more convenient! There are about 50 days left between now and the Spring Festival. How many more will come in?

2. What is the stock of frozen meat in the warehouse?

It is reported that: "the shelf life of frozen meat reserves is generally 12 months. When the frozen meat reserves of storage enterprises reach 4-5 months, they will be sold according to normal frozen products, and then carry out a new round of frozen pork reserves, that is, the rotation period of frozen meat reserves is 4-5 months." There was a big drop in pig prices from August to September this year. As businessmen, if meat companies are like pig farmers, they will judge that pork will rise further during the Spring Festival, which in theory will attract low and sell high, right around the Spring Festival. If that's the case, this is not good news.

3. Are there too many cattle and pigs on the fence?

In the last round of pig prices, because there were too many cattle and pigs, butchers collectively depressed prices, and later, due to fear of trampling, caused a round of pig prices to fall. Now there are many people who are optimistic about the price of pigs during the Spring Festival, and the phenomenon of cattle and pigs is on the rise again. As long as there are cattle and pigs, butchers will have the motivation and qualification to lower prices, which is also a big risk.

According to the above three-point analysis, it is predicted that the supply of live pigs will increase greatly before and after the Spring Festival. If the supply exceeds demand, coupled with the bad news noodles (imported pork, cattle and pigs, frozen meat, etc.), it will lead to the concentration of retail and fattening households.

Third, the Spring Festival is the last chance to escape?

1. What will the overweight pig do?

In fact, large-scale pig farms generally do not press the fence. Because large-scale pig farms will plan and build pig houses according to sows, conservation and fattening before construction. If the hurdle is not out of the hurdle, it will affect the previous production, so many cattle and pigs in the last round continued fattening with 200-200 jin from the scale farm. The people who press the bar are mainly retail investors, professional investors and fattening farms, who prefer to bet on pig prices. Every year, the main bet is "Mid-Autumn Festival (including National Day)" and "Spring Festival". Now, the last chance to bet on pig prices is the Spring Festival, after which consumption is off-season until May, during which there has been almost no record of price increases in the past.

It takes more than 3 months from the Spring Festival to May. Can cattle and pigs afford it? So, no matter what, overweight pigs will be fenced before and after the Spring Festival. This is a reality. What kind of impact can it bring? You can comment on it.

2. How many people are gambling?

As a practitioner, I certainly hope that pig prices will fly a little longer, but as long as the supply goes up, pig prices will fall sooner or later. This is a rule that no one can change. What we want to know most now is when it will fall. Raising pigs is to make money, and if you have a choice, it is, of course, to maximize profits.