The price of white-feathered broiler chickens has soared 10-fold. Experts predict that the high price will continue until at least 2017.

Original title: the price of chicken seedlings soared tenfold expert: high prices will last at least until next year

According to China Rural Voice "three Rural China" report, the consumption of white-feathered chickens in China currently accounts for about 50% of the entire broiler market. This kind of chicken is a commonly used material in fast food restaurants, so there are many enterprises raising white-feathered chickens.

Over the past year, the prices of white-feathered chickens and young chickens have been rising. Recently, the price of white-feathered chicken seedlings has risen sharply, and the fluctuation is very obvious, which shocked the practitioners. What happened to the white feather chicken seedling market? How long can this high situation last?

At present, the market situation of white-feathered broiler fry mainly shows two major characteristics: first, the price of breeder chicken fry has soared; second, domestic chicken fry is in short supply. Yu Dezhang, director of a chicken farm in Yantai, Shandong province, said he was shocked by the price increase when he bought 8,000 young chickens in November.

Yu Dezhang: at that time, it was 80 yuan per set of chicken seedlings. Last year it was eight yuan per set, which was 10 times higher than that of last year.

From eight yuan a set to eighty yuan a set, in a year, the price of a set of white-feathered broiler chickens has increased tenfold, becoming a "helicopter chicken." At present, the price of a set of parent breeding chickens on the market is even as high as 100 yuan, which is the highest since 2013. Yu Dezhang said that according to past experience, we do not rule out the possibility that this market will be transmitted to downstream end products.

Yu Dezhang: the cost of our chicks will definitely increase, about 50 cents per chick. With the changes in the market, the price of selling a chick last year was usually 2.20 yuan, and this year it was 3.50 yuan.

The price of chicken seedlings has soared, and enterprises that produce chicken seedlings are selling very fast, said Ren Ruijie, director of an ancestral breeder farm in Yantai, Shandong Province. they have been very busy recently.

Ren Ruijie: we are in a state where supply exceeds demand. We should be able to sell as much as we can.

Why did this happen? Statistics show that only about 220000 sets of chickens were introduced nationwide from January to August 2016, and less than 350000 sets are expected to be introduced in the whole year, less than half of the balanced introduction. Since October, the production of parent-generation chicken seedlings in some ancestral chicken enterprises has been declining sharply, with a month-on-month decline of more than 20%. Cui Xiaona, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information:

Cui Xiaona: China's breeder chickens are basically imported from abroad, and the main countries are the United States, France, Spain, New Zealand and so on, but bird flu has broken out one after another in the United States, France and other countries, resulting in the loss of imports in China. The introduction of ancestral chickens in China in 2015 was only 60% of that in 2014, and in 2016 it dropped to the lowest level in nearly a decade.

The decrease in foreign imports has pushed up the price of seedlings. In order to get rid of the bottleneck of foreign imports, in the past two years, some domestic enterprises have carried out some independent research and development, but chicken seedling breeding as the top of the pyramid of the industry, the breakthrough in research and development is restricted by some conditions. therefore, the prospect of domestic white feather broiler breeding is not clear. Cui Xiaona, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information:

Cui Xiaona: the supply of ancestral chicken, currently under the control of upstream companies around the world, is relatively monopolized. The risk of chicken seedling breeding is high, the investment is large, and the demand for talents is high. At present, the investment in chicken breeding in China is still less, and there is still a certain gap compared with the advanced technology abroad. At present, none of the domestic breeder breeders has achieved remarkable success, because the prospect is not clear.

According to the requirements of the National Broiler genetic improvement Program of the Ministry of Agriculture, by 2025, China will breed two to three new breeds of white-feathered broilers that have reached the international advanced level in the same period, and the annual output of commercial chickens will reach 20% of the total number of white-feathered broilers. According to this plan, China's seedling breeding work may achieve great development. If this is a vision, what about the close-up? Will the recent high seedling prices continue to be high or reverse and lower? Analyst Cui Xiaona believes that continuing to stay high is a high probability event.

Cui Xiaona: now, it is very possible that the price of chicken seedlings will remain high and go up at least until next year. In terms of introduction, although the Netherlands resumed customs on October 19, there has been a recent incident of low pathogenic avian influenza, and the specific introduction time may continue to be delayed. In addition, New Zealand seedling enterprises also have the phenomenon of delay, in the context of the substantial decline in the introduction of ancestral chicken, the high price of chicken seedlings should last for a long time.